Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T07:32:21+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
6D 0x6d20…dffa crypto 154 markets active 1h ago coverage 181d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real
Total PnL +$1,811 (+49%) realized +$1,814 · open −$3
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +11% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +0% what you keep after slip
Net edge+0%after slip
Net WR37%break-even
Win rate41%62W / 89L
Drawdown16%max
Avg bet$24per market
Trades / day1.2pace
Fees−$31est.
Kalshi-fit84%portable
Net worth$107now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$337
7 days+$1,335
14 days+$1,802
30 days+$1,775
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 43% +$1,190
other 40% +$650
crypto 18% −$132
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +37%
net ROI/market (all)+0.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 40 +22.9% +11.2% 45% 42% +39.7%
≤30d 58 +58.7% +43.6% 48% 47% +45.4%
≤90d 138 +10.9% +0.3% 38% 35% +37.6%
all 151 +10.8% +0.3% 41% 37% +35.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +0.3% 37% +35.7%
10% -9.3% 32% +22.7%
15% -18.1% 28% +10.8%
20% -26.1% 24% -0.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 25% · top 2 35% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +51% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
10% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +11% · $-wt +49% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -14% → late +35% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$50 vs −$16 · ×3.18 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.22 per $1 lost it wins $2.22
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

181d coverage
Net worth$107
Realized+$1,814
Unrealized−$3
Win rate (resolved)41%
Wins / losses62 / 89
Est. fees paid−$31
Open positions3
Markets (closed)151 / 154
History coverage181d
Avg bet$24
Trades / day1.2
Drawdown16%
Kalshi-fit84%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 151 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 3.5 Over 39¢ 38¢ $50 $49 −$1 (-1%)
Will Netherlands vs. Sweden end in a draw? Yes 24¢ 24¢ $30 $29 −$1 (-2%)
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Yes 10¢ 10¢ $30 $28 −$2 (-5%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 37 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 19 $11 −$10 -94%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 19 $11 −$10 -94%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 19 $35 −$33 -94%
Will Brazil vs. Haiti end in a draw? Jun 19 $26 −$25 -97%
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 19 $51 −$50 -98%
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? Jun 19 $51 −$50 -98%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $51 +$53 +105%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 18 $5 −$5 -94%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $51 +$53 +105%
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 18 $54 −$53 -97%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $103 −$100 -98%
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 18 $20 +$54 +262%
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $51 +$39 +76%
Will Canada vs. Qatar end in a draw? Jun 18 $31 −$30 -98%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $21 −$20 -97%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $51 −$50 -99%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $51 −$50 -98%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $51 −$50 -99%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $51 +$71 +140%
Ghana vs. Panama: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $51 +$47 +93%
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $51 +$34 +67%
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? Jun 17 $51 −$50 -98%
England vs. Croatia: Croatia O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $102 −$100 -98%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Portugal O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $101 +$4 +4%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $204 +$285 +140%
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $103 +$778 +758%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 16 $51 −$51 -99%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $51 −$43 -84%
Iraq vs. Norway: Neither team to score first? Jun 16 $21 −$20 -97%
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 16 $51 −$50 -98%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 16 $51 +$176 +344%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $51 +$116 +227%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 15 $102 +$314 +307%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $101 −$100 -99%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $102 +$98 +97%
Sweden to score first vs. Tunisia? Jun 15 $101 +$69 +68%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $86 +$205 +238%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $101 +$55 +55%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 14 $101 +$31 +30%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $202 −$200 -99%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $102 +$111 +109%
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 12 $51 +$126 +246%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $102 +$168 +165%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: Both Teams to Score Jun 12 $51 +$47 +93%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $36 +$15 +41%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 27, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET May 27 $27 −$26 -95%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 27, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET May 27 $25 −$25 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET May 27 $6 +$14 +226%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 27, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET May 27 $9 −$8 -94%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 27, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET May 27 $9 −$8 -94%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 39¢ $51 1h
Will Netherlands vs. Sweden end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $31 1h
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? BUY Yes 10¢ $31 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET BUY Up 1¢ $11 17h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET BUY Down 1¢ $11 17h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET BUY Down 1¢ $1 17h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET BUY Down 14¢ $34 17h
Will Brazil vs. Haiti end in a draw? BUY Yes 8¢ $26 23h
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $51 23h
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? BUY Yes 23¢ $51 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET BUY Down 1¢ $5 34h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 100¢ $104 34h
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? BUY Yes 6¢ $51 34h
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? BUY Yes 6¢ $3 34h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 14¢ $103 35h
Will Canada vs. Qatar end in a draw? BUY Yes 17¢ $31 44h
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 8¢ $21 44h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 51¢ $51 44h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 42¢ $51 44h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 48¢ $51 44h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 48¢ $51 44h
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 56¢ $51 44h
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? BUY Yes 27¢ $20 45h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 53¢ $51 45h
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? BUY Yes 20¢ $51 2d
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 59¢ $51 2d
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 41¢ $51 2d
Ghana vs. Panama: Both Teams to Score BUY No 51¢ $51 2d
England vs. Croatia: Croatia O/U 2.5 BUY Over 28¢ $102 2d
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Portugal O/U 1.5 SELL Over 71¢ $105 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $107.23 · official $107.23 (match) · 370 history records