Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T20:28:18+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
6D 0x6d20…a329 world 35 markets active 2h ago coverage 254d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$3 (+0%) realized +$3 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR6%break-even
Win rate43%15W / 20L
Drawdown60%max
Avg bet$22per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Kalshi-fit77%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$2
7 days+$2
14 days+$3
30 days+$3
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 59% +$3
other 16% +$1
sports 11% $0
politics 8% $0
crypto 3% −$1
tech 2% $0
economics 1% $0
culture 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +6%
net ROI/market (all)-10.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 +1.0% -8.6% 57% 0% -8.8%
≤30d 12 +1.9% -7.8% 50% 8% -9.0%
≤90d 12 +1.9% -7.8% 50% 8% -9.0%
all 35 -0.5% -10.0% 43% 6% -9.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.0% 6% -9.2%
10% -18.6% 3% -17.9%
15% -26.4% 3% -25.8%
20% -33.6% 0% -33.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 34% · top 2 61% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
87% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late +1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×1.76 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.4 per $1 lost it wins $2.4
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

254d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$3
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)43%
Wins / losses15 / 20
Open positions0
Markets (closed)35 / 35
History coverage254d
Avg bet$22
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown60%
Kalshi-fit77%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 35 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 19 $25 $0 +0%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 19 $47 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 18 $35 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? Jun 18 $27 +$2 +6%
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 17 $12 $0 +0%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 14 $79 +$1 +1%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 13 $56 $0 +0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 07 $60 $0 +0%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 07 $83 $0 -0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 06 $8 $0 +3%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab Jun 06 $1 $0 +12%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 04 $2 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,000 by December 31? Oct 21 $19 $0 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan in 2025? Oct 21 $8 $0 +0%
Will Evelyn Matthei win the Chilean presidential election? Oct 20 $8 $0 +1%
Will Chelsea win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Oct 19 $31 $0 -0%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Oct 19 $6 $0 -0%
Will the Denver Broncos win Super Bowl 2026? Oct 18 $20 $0 +0%
Will the Iranian regime fall in 2025? Oct 18 $5 $0 -0%
Will the Orlando Magic win the 2026 NBA Finals? Oct 17 $24 $0 -0%
Will Trump pardon Elizabeth Holmes in 2025? Oct 17 $24 $0 +0%
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2026 NBA Finals? Oct 17 $24 $0 +0%
Will Nicolás Maduro be the first leader out in 2025? Oct 14 $20 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk be richest person on October 31? Oct 14 $3 +$1 +36%
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by October 31? Oct 14 $23 $0 +1%
Will Donald Trump win Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Oct 11 $2 −$1 -60%
Will Tottenham win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Oct 11 $1 $0 -6%
Will the Pittsburgh Steelers win Super Bowl 2026? Oct 10 $23 $0 -0%
Will the Baltimore Ravens win Super Bowl 2026? Oct 10 $23 $0 +0%
Will Trump announce Kevin Hassett as next Fed Chair in 2025? Oct 09 $6 $0 +0%
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Oct 09 $6 $0 -0%
Will Russia capture Sumy by December 31? Oct 09 $3 $0 +0%
Will DeepSeek have the top AI model on December 31? Oct 09 $16 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $90k in October? Oct 08 $5 −$1 -11%
Will Trump pardon Ghislaine Maxwell in 2025? Oct 08 $20 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL No 49¢ $25 1h
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY No 49¢ $21 3h
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY No 49¢ $4 3h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 96¢ $46 4h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 95¢ $46 5h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL No 87¢ $23 29h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL No 87¢ $3 29h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL No 87¢ $9 29h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 87¢ $35 30h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 5¢ $1 38h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 5¢ $1 39h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL Yes 38¢ $18 43h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL Yes 38¢ $11 43h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY Yes 36¢ $7 45h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY Yes 36¢ $15 45h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY Yes 36¢ $5 45h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 31¢ $3 47h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 31¢ $9 2d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 31¢ $12 2d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $12 5d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $28 5d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 93¢ $40 5d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $37 5d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $3 5d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $39 6d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 86¢ $44 6d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 86¢ $44 6d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 13¢ $12 7d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 13¢ $9 7d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 13¢ $3 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 143 history records