Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T11:02:14+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
6D 0x6d22…ea55 world 69 markets active 2d ago coverage 260d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$1,920 (-23%) realized −$1,955 · open +$35
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR42%break-even
Win rate53%35W / 31L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$121per market
Trades / day1.4pace
Kalshi-fit75%portable
Net worth$129now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$57
14 days+$13
30 days+$13
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 30% −$803
politics 29% −$482
other 21% +$194
crypto 19% −$636
tech 1% −$51
culture 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +42%
net ROI/market (all)-17.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -33.4% -39.7% 33% 0% -29.7%
≤30d 4 -5.0% -14.1% 50% 25% -6.1%
≤90d 14 -1.2% -10.6% 71% 57% -11.5%
all 66 -8.4% -17.1% 53% 42% -27.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -17.1% 42% -27.0%
10% -25.0% 32% -34.0%
15% -32.3% 20% -40.3%
20% -38.9% 15% -46.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 19% · top 2 36% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
20% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt -24% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -9% → late -8% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.5 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$51 vs −$116 · ×0.44 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.49 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

260d coverage
Net worth$129
Realized−$1,955
Unrealized+$35
Win rate (resolved)53%
Wins / losses35 / 31
Open positions3
Markets (closed)66 / 69
History coverage260d
Avg bet$121
Trades / day1.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit75%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 66 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will 60 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026? No 46¢ 64¢ $92 $127 +$35 (+38%)
Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Yes 8¢ 8¢ $2 $1 −$0 (-6%)
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? Yes 51¢ 28¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-46%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 17 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 25 $100 −$1 -2%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 25 $100 +$1 +1%
Starmer out by June 26, 2026? Jun 20 $58 −$57 -98%
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? Jun 18 $88 +$70 +80%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? May 15 $104 −$104 -100%
Will Trump say "AI" or "Artificial Intelligence" during events with Xi May 13 $51 −$51 -99%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026? May 13 $110 +$20 +18%
Will Trump visit China by May 15? May 13 $26 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET May 10 $101 +$23 +23%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 01 $98 +$15 +15%
US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 22, 2026? Apr 22 $20 +$6 +30%
US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 21, 2026? Apr 22 $56 +$36 +64%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 22, 2026? Apr 21 $46 +$10 +21%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Apr 20 $35 +$11 +32%
US x Iran ceasefire by March 15? Mar 16 $12 +$2 +14%
Will Trump visit China by April 30? Mar 16 $327 −$71 -22%
US forces enter Iran by March 14? Mar 15 $84 +$9 +11%
US x Iran ceasefire by April 30? Mar 10 $100 −$16 -16%
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28? Feb 28 $354 −$354 -100%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by March 31, 2026? Feb 28 $20 −$10 -51%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026? Feb 28 $200 −$58 -29%
US strikes Iran by February 27, 2026? Feb 28 $2 $0 +15%
US strikes Iran by March 15, 2026? Feb 20 $51 −$51 -100%
US strikes Iran by June 30, 2026? Feb 19 $327 −$327 -100%
Will the government shutdown last 2 days or more? Feb 15 $339 +$8 +2%
Government shutdown on Saturday? Feb 13 $254 +$285 +112%
Will Mark Kelly win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Feb 11 $192 +$68 +36%
Netanyahu out by end of 2026? Feb 08 $106 +$50 +47%
Will the government shutdown last 4 days or more? Feb 03 $74 +$2 +3%
US strike on Mexico by December 31? Feb 02 $37 +$6 +18%
Will the government shutdown last 7 days or more? Feb 01 $98 −$98 -100%
Will US or Israel strike Iran by January 31, 2026? Feb 01 $30 +$8 +25%
Will there be eleven or more announced new U.S. armed forces strikes a Feb 01 $38 +$23 +59%
U.S. strike on Somalia by January 31? Jan 30 $147 −$147 -100%
US government shutdown Saturday? Jan 25 $385 −$385 -100%
Another critical Cloudflare incident by January 31? Jan 25 $225 +$59 +26%
US x Venezuela military engagement by December 31? Jan 05 $248 −$52 -21%
U.S. anti-cartel strike/operation on foreign soil by December 31? Jan 04 $266 −$211 -79%
U.S. forces seize another Venezuela-linked oil ship in 2025? Jan 01 $95 +$345 +361%
Will Bitcoin reach $95,000 by December 31, 2025? Dec 31 $369 −$368 -100%
Trump announces new drug boat strike by December 31? Dec 29 $214 −$214 -100%
Trump x Khamenei talk in 2025? Dec 29 $55 −$26 -47%
Trump approval Up or Down this week? Dec 29 $38 −$38 -100%
Will Ethereum hit $5,000 by December 31? Dec 28 $216 −$133 -62%
Will Russia capture Huliaipole by December 31? Dec 28 $208 −$207 -99%
Will Bitcoin dip to $80,000 by December 31, 2025? Dec 25 $268 +$264 +99%
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 by December 31, 2025? Dec 22 $272 −$170 -62%
Will Russia capture all of Pokrovsk by December 31? Dec 19 $125 +$200 +161%
US x Venezuela military engagement by December 15? Dec 11 $24 +$8 +34%
Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 by December 31, 2025? Dec 03 $100 −$24 -24%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will 60 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 46¢ $92 36h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? SELL Yes 50¢ $92 44h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? BUY Yes 51¢ $98 44h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 67¢ $98 44h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 68¢ $100 44h
Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY Yes 8¢ $2 44h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL No 84¢ $101 44h
Starmer out by June 26, 2026? BUY No 51¢ $58 6d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 83¢ $100 8d
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? SELL No 90¢ $158 8d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 67¢ $104 43d
Will Trump say "AI" or "Artificial Intelligence" during events with Xi BUY Yes 82¢ $25 44d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026? SELL No 99¢ $130 44d
Will Trump say "AI" or "Artificial Intelligence" during events with Xi BUY Yes 84¢ $26 44d
Will Trump visit China by May 15? SELL Yes 100¢ $26 44d
Will Trump visit China by May 15? BUY Yes 99¢ $26 47d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026? BUY No 84¢ $110 48d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET BUY Down 80¢ $101 48d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 87¢ $98 60d
US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 22, 2026? SELL Yes 10¢ $26 65d
US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 22, 2026? BUY Yes 10¢ $6 65d
US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 22, 2026? BUY Yes 7¢ $14 65d
US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 21, 2026? BUY No 61¢ $56 66d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 22, 2026? SELL No 99¢ $56 66d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 22, 2026? BUY No 82¢ $46 67d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 76¢ $35 70d
Will Trump visit China by April 30? SELL Yes 73¢ $22 103d
Will Trump visit China by April 30? BUY Yes 66¢ $93 103d
US forces enter Iran by March 14? BUY No 90¢ $84 108d
US x Iran ceasefire by April 30? SELL No 46¢ $84 108d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $128.62 · official $128.44 (match) · 418 history records