Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T11:03:25+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5

score

6D 0x6d22…827f other 4 markets active 2h ago coverage 2d

RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage

Total PnL +$2 (+1%) realized +$3 · open −$1

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip

Net edge-13%after slip

Net WR0%break-even

Win rate100%2W / 0L

Drawdown0%max

Avg bet$78per market

Trades / day3.1pace

Kalshi-fit0%portable

Net worth$183now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +0%

net ROI/market (all)-9.1%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	2	+0.5%	-9.1%	100%	0%	-9.1%
≤30d	2	+0.5%	-9.1%	100%	0%	-9.1%
≤90d	2	+0.5%	-9.1%	100%	0%	-9.1%
all	2	+0.5%	-9.1%	100%	0%	-9.1%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover3.1 tr/day

realistic slip~7%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	-9.1%	0%	-9.1%
10%	-17.8%	0%	-17.8%
15%	-25.7%	0%	-25.7%
20%	-33.0%	0%	-33.0%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 51% · top 2 100% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +0% too few recent

Fragile wins

100% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +0% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$0 vs — no data

Profit factor

— no data

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage

Net worth$183

Realized+$3

Unrealized−$1

Win rate (resolved)100%

Wins / losses2 / 0

Open positions2

Markets (closed)2 / 4

History coverage2d

Avg bet$78

Trades / day3.1

Drawdown0%

Kalshi-fit0%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 2 History 2 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24?	Yes	69¢	68¢	$138	$137	−$1 (-1%)
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25?	Yes	51¢	52¢	$46	$46	+$0 (+1%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22?	Jun 22	$64	$0	+0%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21?	Jun 21	$62	$0	+0%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24?	BUY Yes	69¢	$139	1h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25?	BUY Yes	51¢	$46	4h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22?	SELL Yes	64¢	$64	13h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22?	BUY Yes	63¢	$64	23h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21?	SELL Yes	62¢	$62	39h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21?	BUY Yes	61¢	$62	47h

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $183.22 · official $183.22 (match) · 6 history records