Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T18:34:07+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
6D 0x6d24…cf3f crypto 83 markets active 1h ago coverage 12d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$35 (+2%) realized +$35 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -9% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR45%break-even
Win rate52%43W / 40L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$22per market
Trades / day15.4pace
Fees−$11est.
Kalshi-fit92%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$52
7 days−$66
14 days−$66
30 days−$66
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 75% −$28
other 20% −$27
crypto 4% −$11
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +45%
net ROI/market (all)-17.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 65 -14.8% -22.9% 49% 45% -13.6%
≤30d 83 -9.3% -17.9% 52% 45% -13.2%
≤90d 83 -9.3% -17.9% 52% 45% -13.2%
all 83 -9.3% -17.9% 52% 45% -13.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover15.4 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -17.9% 45% -13.2%
10% -25.8% 33% -21.5%
15% -32.9% 28% -29.1%
20% -39.5% 22% -36.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 17% · top 2 30% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
14% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -9% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +14% → late -32% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$7 vs −$9 · ×0.76 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.82 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

12d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$35
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)52%
Wins / losses43 / 40
Est. fees paid−$11
Open positions0
Markets (closed)83 / 83
History coverage12d
Avg bet$22
Trades / day15.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit92%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 83 Trades
no open positions (8 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z - Map 1 Winner Jun 18 $294 +$39 +13%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Jun 18 $36 −$13 -35%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 18 $1 +$1 +123%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $10 +$4 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 17 $2 +$2 +77%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 17 $1 $0 +28%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $1 +$1 +67%
Portugal to score first vs. DR Congo? Jun 17 $38 +$11 +28%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $13 +$7 +52%
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers (BO5) - Asia Mast Jun 17 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Jun 17 $1 +$2 +173%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -96%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $16 +$3 +21%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $232 +$49 +21%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $55 −$25 -45%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $10 +$4 +40%
Map Handicap: G2 (-1.5) vs Natus Vincere (+1.5) Jun 15 $1 −$1 -97%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 15 $10 −$10 -99%
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid - Game 3 Winner Jun 15 $15 +$6 +40%
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid - Game 2 Winner Jun 14 $18 +$16 +88%
LoL: Solary vs UCAM Esports Club - Game 3 Winner Jun 14 $126 +$17 +14%
Will Lewis Hamilton win the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Prix? Jun 14 $86 −$86 -100%
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid - Game 1 Winner Jun 14 $142 −$12 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 -12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 14 $2 −$1 -46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
LoL: Solary vs UCAM Esports Club - Game 2 Winner Jun 14 $112 +$13 +11%
LoL: Solary vs UCAM Esports Club - Game 1 Winner Jun 14 $119 −$3 -2%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $10 −$5 -53%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 14 $5 −$2 -40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Kimi Antonelli win the 2026 F1 Monaco Grand Prix? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 2 Winner Jun 14 $22 −$22 -100%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 14 $20 −$20 -100%
LoL: G2 Esports vs Karmine Corp - Game 1 Winner Jun 14 $30 −$30 -100%
LoL: G2 Esports vs Karmine Corp - Game 3 Winner Jun 14 $36 −$36 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 14 $3 +$2 +61%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 14 $9 +$11 +123%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 4 Winner Jun 14 $18 +$11 +64%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 1 Winner Jun 14 $28 −$28 -100%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 3 Winner Jun 14 $28 +$39 +137%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z - Map 1 Winner SELL 9z 100¢ $333 35m
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z - Map 1 Winner BUY 9z 88¢ $294 51m
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs SELL FURIA 50¢ $24 53m
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY FURIA 76¢ $36 1h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo SELL Aurora Gaming 100¢ $2 2h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo BUY Aurora Gaming 44¢ $1 4h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 71¢ $10 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET BUY Down 54¢ $1 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET SELL Down 60¢ $2 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET BUY Down 32¢ $1 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET SELL Up 98¢ $1 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET BUY Up 75¢ $1 20h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 100¢ $2 20h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 59¢ $1 22h
Portugal to score first vs. DR Congo? SELL Yes 100¢ $49 24h
Portugal to score first vs. DR Congo? BUY Yes 78¢ $38 30h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers (BO5) - Asia Mast BUY KT Rolster Challengers 49¢ $1 42h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 65¢ $13 42h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET BUY Down 32¢ $1 42h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET BUY Down 28¢ $1 42h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET BUY Up 35¢ $1 42h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET BUY Down 29¢ $1 42h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $1 42h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 99¢ $20 45h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 84¢ $15 45h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 61¢ $1 47h
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 82¢ $232 2d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL G2 99¢ $34 2d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY G2 88¢ $30 2d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Natus Vincere 68¢ $15 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 228 history records