Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T17:04:25+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
6D 0x6d24…0834 sports 6 markets active 1h ago coverage 2d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$54 (+11%) realized +$19 · open +$35
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR80%break-even
Win rate80%4W / 1L
Drawdown28%max
Avg bet$81per market
Trades / day4.9pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$172now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 100% +$113
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +80%
net ROI/market (all)-4.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 +5.1% -4.9% 80% 80% +11.0%
≤30d 5 +5.1% -4.9% 80% 80% +11.0%
≤90d 5 +5.1% -4.9% 80% 80% +11.0%
all 5 +5.1% -4.9% 80% 80% +11.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.9 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -4.9% 80% +11.0%
10% -14.0% 60% +0.4%
15% -22.3% 20% -9.3%
20% -29.9% 20% -18.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 56% · top 2 83% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +23% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +5% · $-wt +23% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$25 vs −$22 · ×1.14 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×4.58 per $1 lost it wins $4.58
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$172
Realized+$19
Unrealized+$35
Win rate (resolved)80%
Wins / losses4 / 1
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions1
Markets (closed)5 / 6
History coverage2d
Avg bet$81
Trades / day4.9
Drawdown28%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 5 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner Team Falcons 80¢ 100¢ $138 $172 +$35 (+25%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner Jun 21 $112 +$27 +24%
Dota 2: GLYPH vs OG (BO3) - The International Southeast Asia Closed Qu Jun 21 $100 +$12 +12%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo Jun 20 $95 +$56 +59%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla Jun 19 $22 −$22 -99%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Jun 19 $17 +$5 +30%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $172.45 · official $172.45 (match) · 12 history records