Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T05:31:33+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
6D 0x6d26…6a3c crypto 62 markets active 2h ago coverage 167d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$93 (+5%) realized +$99 · open −$6
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -16% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR30%break-even
Win rate30%18W / 42L
Drawdown88%max
Avg bet$31per market
Trades / day1.1pace
Fees−$20est.
Kalshi-fit90%portable
Net worth$19now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$138
7 days+$138
14 days+$49
30 days−$51
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 53% +$113
crypto 19% +$167
economics 16% −$1
other 8% −$2
politics 3% −$47
tech 1% −$14
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +30%
net ROI/market (all)-24.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +156.9% +132.4% 50% 50% +263.5%
≤30d 11 -34.6% -40.9% 18% 18% -23.1%
≤90d 16 -24.0% -31.2% 25% 25% -7.3%
all 60 -16.0% -24.0% 30% 30% +1.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -24.0% 30% +1.2%
10% -31.3% 28% -8.5%
15% -37.9% 27% -17.4%
20% -44.0% 27% -25.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 24% · top 2 44% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -16% · $-wt +12% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +21% → late -53% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.5 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$61 vs −$21 · ×2.92 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.25 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

167d coverage
Net worth$19
Realized+$99
Unrealized−$6
Win rate (resolved)30%
Wins / losses18 / 42
Est. fees paid−$20
Open positions2
Markets (closed)60 / 62
History coverage167d
Avg bet$31
Trades / day1.1
Drawdown88%
Kalshi-fit90%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 60 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
FDA approves Retatrutide this year? Yes 18¢ 12¢ $18 $12 −$6 (-36%)
Aziz Akhannouch out as Morocco Prime Minister by December 31, 2026? No 13¢ 15¢ $6 $7 +$1 (+14%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 19 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
New Zealand vs. Belgium: O/U 4.5 Jun 27 $36 +$148 +414%
Will New Zealand vs. Belgium end in a draw? Jun 27 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $34 −$33 -97%
United States vs. Australia: O/U 4.5 Jun 19 $15 −$15 -98%
United States vs. Australia: O/U 3.5 Jun 19 $20 −$20 -98%
United States vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $25 −$25 -99%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $51 +$53 +105%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 4.5 Jun 19 $5 −$5 -97%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 3.5 Jun 19 $20 −$20 -98%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $25 −$25 -98%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 31 $102 −$100 -98%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 19 $159 −$156 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET May 15 $5 +$9 +166%
UFC 328: Sean Strickland vs. Khamzat Chimaev (Middleweight, Main Card) May 10 $204 +$268 +131%
Lakers vs. Thunder May 08 $51 −$50 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Apr 27 $1 −$1 -93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 26, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Mar 26 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 24, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Mar 24 $2 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 14, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Mar 14 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 14, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Mar 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 14, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Mar 14 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 6, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Mar 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 14, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Mar 14 $6 +$6 +103%
Will Trump say "Transgender" this week? (January 18) Feb 28 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Trump say "Black American" 5+ times during the Black History Mont Feb 28 $12 −$12 -100%
Will Kathy Hochul say "AI" or "Artificial Intelligence" during the Sta Feb 28 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 22, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Feb 28 $18 −$18 -100%
XRP Up or Down - February 4, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET Feb 28 $5 −$5 -100%
Pacers vs. Hawks Feb 28 $33 −$33 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 12, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Feb 28 $9 −$9 -100%
Seahawks vs. Patriots Feb 28 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Trump say "Maduro" this week? (January 18) Feb 28 $12 −$12 -100%
Rockets vs. Kings Feb 28 $13 −$13 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 18, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET Feb 28 $25 −$25 -100%
Solana Up or Down - February 4, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET Feb 28 $50 −$50 -100%
Will the Jacksonville Jaguars be eliminated in the Super Bowl? Feb 28 $12 −$12 -100%
Will NVIDIA be the second-largest company in the world by market cap o Feb 28 $5 −$5 -100%
North Carolina Tar Heels vs. Virginia Cavaliers Feb 28 $61 −$61 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - February 4, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET Feb 28 $5 −$5 -100%
Solana Up or Down - February 5, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET Feb 28 $20 −$20 -100%
Solana Up or Down - February 4, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET Feb 28 $5 −$5 -100%
XRP Up or Down - February 4, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET Feb 28 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Trump say "Football" this week? (February 1) Feb 28 $21 −$21 -100%
Mavericks vs. Bulls Feb 28 $28 −$2 -6%
Will Pizza Hut be acquired before 2027? Feb 27 $19 +$20 +108%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 18, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Feb 18 $18 +$52 +285%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 17, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET Feb 17 $26 +$44 +170%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 12, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Feb 13 $25 +$25 +100%
XRP Up or Down - February 10, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET Feb 10 $8 +$29 +347%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 10, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET Feb 10 $16 +$17 +106%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
New Zealand vs. Belgium: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 19¢ $36 1h
Will New Zealand vs. Belgium end in a draw? BUY Yes 6¢ $10 2h
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 1¢ $5 7d
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 1¢ $5 7d
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 18¢ $23 7d
United States vs. Australia: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 14¢ $15 7d
United States vs. Australia: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 29¢ $20 7d
United States vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 51¢ $25 7d
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 10¢ $5 8d
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 18¢ $20 8d
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 37¢ $25 8d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 48¢ $51 8d
Spurs vs. Thunder BUY Thunder 31¢ $102 27d
Spurs vs. Thunder BUY Thunder 53¢ $159 39d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET SELL Up 74¢ $14 42d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET BUY Up 26¢ $5 42d
UFC 328: Sean Strickland vs. Khamzat Chimaev (Middleweight, Main Card) SELL Khamzat Chimaev 71¢ $93 48d
UFC 328: Sean Strickland vs. Khamzat Chimaev (Middleweight, Main Card) SELL Khamzat Chimaev 74¢ $77 48d
UFC 328: Sean Strickland vs. Khamzat Chimaev (Middleweight, Main Card) BUY Khamzat Chimaev 42¢ $102 48d
UFC 328: Sean Strickland vs. Khamzat Chimaev (Middleweight, Main Card) SELL Sean Strickland 46¢ $302 48d
UFC 328: Sean Strickland vs. Khamzat Chimaev (Middleweight, Main Card) BUY Sean Strickland 15¢ $103 48d
Lakers vs. Thunder BUY Lakers 13¢ $51 50d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET BUY Up 4¢ $1 60d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 26, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET BUY Up 35¢ $7 92d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 24, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET BUY Down 15¢ $2 94d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 14, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET BUY Down 23¢ $1 104d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 14, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET BUY Down 23¢ $4 104d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 14, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET BUY Down 23¢ $3 104d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 14, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET BUY Down 23¢ $1 104d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 14, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET BUY Up 12¢ $5 104d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $18.92 · official $18.92 (match) · 208 history records