Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T09:42:25+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
6D 0x6d2a…5b84 other 20 markets active 2h ago coverage 163d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$76 (+6%) realized +$76 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -9% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR44%break-even
Win rate56%10W / 8L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$62per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit10%portable
Net worth$157now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$105
7 days+$168
14 days+$168
30 days+$168
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 94% +$91
crypto 4% $0
sports 2% −$24
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)-17.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 12 +11.5% +0.9% 67% 67% +10.4%
≤30d 12 +11.5% +0.9% 67% 67% +10.4%
≤90d 12 +11.5% +0.9% 67% 67% +10.4%
all 18 -8.8% -17.5% 56% 44% -3.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -17.5% 44% -3.8%
10% -25.4% 44% -13.0%
15% -32.6% 33% -21.4%
20% -39.2% 22% -29.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 23% · top 2 42% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +22% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
20% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -9% · $-wt +6% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -20% → late +2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$32 vs −$32 · ×1.01 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.26 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

163d coverage
Net worth$157
Realized+$76
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)56%
Wins / losses10 / 8
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions2
Markets (closed)18 / 20
History coverage163d
Avg bet$62
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit10%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 18 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Yes 65¢ 64¢ $104 $103 −$1 (-1%)
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Yes 57¢ 57¢ $53 $53 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $101 +$74 +73%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $101 +$63 +62%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 19 $24 −$24 -100%
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? Jun 19 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $101 +$29 +29%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $26 −$26 -98%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $25 +$34 +134%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $101 −$92 -91%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $25 +$29 +114%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $101 +$44 +44%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $101 +$24 +24%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $49 +$24 +48%
Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-01-17? Jan 20 $41 −$41 -100%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-01-17? Jan 20 $51 −$51 -100%
Sentient FDV above $200M one day after launch? Jan 20 $95 −$1 -1%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-01-08? Jan 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Opensea FDV above $2B one day after launch? Jan 14 $91 +$1 +1%
Opensea FDV above $1B one day after launch? Jan 12 $20 +$1 +3%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 65¢ $40 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 65¢ $65 1h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 100¢ $175 9h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 57¢ $54 12h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 100¢ $164 12h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 61¢ $101 28h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 39h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 57¢ $101 2d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 52¢ $26 2d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 77¢ $101 2d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 7¢ $9 2d
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $24 3d
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 42¢ $25 3d
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 100¢ $54 3d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 76¢ $101 3d
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 46¢ $25 3d
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 80¢ $101 3d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 100¢ $73 3d
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 10¢ $10 3d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 69¢ $101 3d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $49 3d
Sentient FDV above $200M one day after launch? SELL Yes 98¢ $94 150d
Sentient FDV above $200M one day after launch? BUY Yes 99¢ $95 152d
Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-01-17? BUY Yes 81¢ $41 156d
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-01-17? BUY Yes 50¢ $51 156d
Opensea FDV above $2B one day after launch? SELL Yes 26¢ $92 156d
Opensea FDV above $2B one day after launch? BUY Yes 30¢ $21 158d
Opensea FDV above $1B one day after launch? SELL Yes 60¢ $21 158d
Opensea FDV above $2B one day after launch? BUY Yes 25¢ $70 161d
Opensea FDV above $1B one day after launch? BUY Yes 58¢ $20 163d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $156.66 · official $156.66 (match) · 40 history records