Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T23:09:11+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
6D 0x6d30…b380 other 9 markets active 3d ago coverage 173d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge
Total PnL +$1,042 (+74%) realized +$1,042 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +40% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +27% what you keep after slip
Net edge+27%after slip
Net WR44%break-even
Win rate100%9W / 0L
Drawdown0%max
Avg bet$156per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Fees−$7est.
Kalshi-fit56%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$599
14 days+$760
30 days+$1,013
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 45% +$599
sports 36% +$414
crypto 17% +$10
economics 2% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)+26.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +105.1% +85.6% 100% 100% +85.6%
≤30d 4 +88.1% +70.2% 100% 100% +76.4%
≤90d 8 +44.9% +31.1% 100% 50% +57.9%
all 9 +40.0% +26.7% 100% 44% +56.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to15%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +26.7% 44% +56.6%
10% +14.5% 44% +41.6%
15% +3.5% 44% +27.9%
20% -6.7% 44% +15.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 58% · top 2 74% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +74% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
56% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +40% · $-wt +73% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$114 vs — no data
Profit factor
— no data
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

173d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$1,042
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)100%
Wins / losses9 / 0
Est. fees paid−$7
Open positions0
Markets (closed)9 / 9
History coverage173d
Avg bet$156
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown0%
Kalshi-fit56%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 9 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $569 +$599 +105%
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights Jun 10 $174 +$162 +93%
Thunder vs. Spurs May 29 $152 +$98 +65%
Penguins vs. Flyers May 28 $172 +$154 +90%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on April 10? Apr 22 $244 +$10 +4%
Will Hubert Hurkacz win the 2026 Australian Open? Apr 10 $18 $0 +1%
Will Felix Auger Aliassime win the 2026 Australian Open? Apr 10 $22 $0 +1%
Negative GDP growth in 2025? Apr 10 $22 $0 +1%
Starmer out in 2025? Jan 17 $27 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 48¢ $285 2d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 48¢ $285 2d
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights BUY Hurricanes 51¢ $174 11d
Thunder vs. Spurs BUY Spurs 60¢ $152 23d
Penguins vs. Flyers BUY Flyers 52¢ $172 59d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on April 10? BUY Yes 96¢ $244 71d
Negative GDP growth in 2025? BUY No 99¢ $22 154d
Will Felix Auger Aliassime win the 2026 Australian Open? BUY No 99¢ $22 154d
Will Hubert Hurkacz win the 2026 Australian Open? BUY No 99¢ $18 154d
Starmer out in 2025? BUY No 99¢ $27 175d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 19 history records