Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T19:07:14+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
6D 0x6d30…ce29 sports 109 markets active 0h ago coverage 60d ⚠
BOTnot copyable sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 60d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (56 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$23,080 (-7%) realized −$23,084 · open +$4
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -33% what you keep after slip
Net edge-33%after slip
Net WR44%break-even
Win rate52%56W / 52L
Whale WR59%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$3,180per market
Trades / day56.2pace
Fees−$3,384est.
Kalshi-fit90%portable
Net worth$2,006now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 60d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 99% −$6,995
other 1% −$1,616
world 0% −$33
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (56 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)-13.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 22 +45.1% +31.3% 55% 45% +4.3%
≤30d 72 +2.6% -7.2% 54% 43% -16.1%
≤90d 108 -4.1% -13.2% 52% 44% -11.6%
all 108 -4.1% -13.2% 52% 44% -11.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover56.2 tr/day
realistic slip~18%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -13.2% 44% -11.6%
10% -21.5% 34% -20.1%
15% ← realistic here -29.1% 23% -27.8%
20% -36.1% 15% -34.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 13% · top 2 24% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
16% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 59% (≥$3,335) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -11% → late +2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
30.3 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$1,497 vs −$1,813 · ×0.83 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.91 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

60d coverage
Net worth$2,006
Realized−$23,084
Unrealized+$4
Win rate (resolved)52%
Wins / losses56 / 52
Whale WR (big bets)59%
Est. fees paid−$3,384
Open positions1
Markets (closed)108 / 109
History coverage60d ⚠
Avg bet$3,180
Trades / day56.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit90%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 108 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: England vs New Zealand England 74¢ 64¢ $2,177 $1,880 −$297 (-14%)
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: England vs New Zealand New Zealand 35¢ 36¢ $122 $126 +$4 (+3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 33 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: West Indies vs Ireland Jun 27 $899 +$969 +108%
T20 Series Ireland vs India: Ireland vs India Jun 26 $195 +$2,737 +1403%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Sri Lanka vs Scotland Jun 26 $375 −$373 -99%
Major League Cricket: Washington Freedom vs Seattle Orcas Jun 26 $4,056 −$2,054 -51%
Japan vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 Jun 26 $154 +$46 +30%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $152 −$7 -4%
Japan vs. Sweden: O/U 1.5 Jun 25 $230 −$230 -100%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: South Africa vs Netherlands Jun 25 $955 +$45 +5%
Major League Cricket: San Francisco Unicorns vs Texas Super Kings Jun 25 $1,861 −$1,846 -99%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: England vs West Indies Jun 24 $7,073 +$1,355 +19%
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? Jun 23 $45 +$74 +162%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Sri Lanka vs Ireland Jun 23 $1,938 +$686 +35%
Will New Zealand vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 22 $84 −$84 -100%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $94 −$94 -100%
Major League Cricket: Seattle Orcas vs Los Angeles Knight Riders Jun 22 $2,370 +$1,519 +64%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: South Africa vs India Jun 21 $1,199 +$401 +34%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: West Indies vs Sri Lanka Jun 21 $547 +$58 +11%
Major League Cricket: Texas Super Kings vs San Francisco Unicorns Jun 21 $1,384 +$228 +16%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? Jun 21 $437 −$437 -100%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: England vs Scotland Jun 20 $3,089 +$266 +9%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $302 −$302 -100%
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? Jun 20 $206 −$206 -100%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Pakistan vs Bangladesh Jun 20 $339 −$139 -41%
Major League Cricket: Los Angeles Knight Riders vs San Francisco Unico Jun 20 $116 −$116 -100%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: New Zealand vs Ireland Jun 19 $924 +$98 +11%
T20 Series Bangladesh vs. Australia: Bangladesh vs Australia Jun 19 $27 +$7 +25%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $730 +$270 +37%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $80 +$20 +24%
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Jun 19 $94 −$94 -100%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: West Indies vs Scotland Jun 18 $2,580 −$2,090 -81%
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? Jun 18 $950 −$950 -100%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: South Africa vs Pakistan Jun 18 $840 +$160 +19%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $507 +$97 +19%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Australia vs Bangladesh Jun 17 $67 +$3 +4%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: England vs Ireland Jun 16 $4,480 +$205 +5%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: New Zealand vs Sri Lanka Jun 16 $1,789 −$1,780 -100%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $33 −$33 -100%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 15 $30 $0 +1%
T20 Series West Indies vs Sri lanka: West Indies vs Sri Lanka Jun 15 $4,680 +$150 +3%
ODI Series Bangladesh vs Australia: Bangladesh vs Australia Jun 14 $1,590 −$1,590 -100%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Bangladesh vs Netherlands Jun 14 $43 $0 -0%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: West Indies vs New Zealand Jun 13 $6,593 −$6,583 -100%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Australia vs South Africa Jun 13 $1,674 +$549 +33%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Scotland vs Ireland Jun 13 $5,012 +$1,609 +32%
Will United States vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 13 $426 −$426 -100%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: England vs Sri Lanka Jun 12 $1,647 +$175 +11%
T20 Series West Indies vs Sri lanka: West Indies vs Sri Lanka Jun 12 $4,250 +$1,983 +47%
ODI Series Bangladesh vs Australia: Bangladesh vs Australia Jun 11 $1,581 −$141 -9%
T20 Blast: Essex vs Kent Jun 10 $1,258 +$46 +4%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: England vs New Zealand BUY New Zealand 35¢ $47 3m
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: England vs New Zealand BUY New Zealand 35¢ $5 5m
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: England vs New Zealand BUY New Zealand 35¢ $5 5m
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: England vs New Zealand BUY New Zealand 35¢ $5 6m
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: England vs New Zealand BUY New Zealand 35¢ $6 6m
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: England vs New Zealand BUY New Zealand 35¢ $1 7m
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: England vs New Zealand BUY New Zealand 36¢ $52 13m
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: England vs New Zealand BUY England 71¢ $142 1h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: England vs New Zealand BUY England 75¢ $568 1h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: England vs New Zealand BUY England 74¢ $373 1h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: England vs New Zealand BUY England 73¢ $5 1h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: England vs New Zealand BUY England 74¢ $148 1h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: England vs New Zealand BUY England 74¢ $412 1h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: England vs New Zealand BUY England 72¢ $539 1h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: West Indies vs Ireland BUY Ireland 56¢ $284 3h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: West Indies vs Ireland BUY Ireland 45¢ $25 3h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: West Indies vs Ireland BUY Ireland 45¢ $12 3h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: West Indies vs Ireland BUY Ireland 45¢ $8 3h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: West Indies vs Ireland BUY Ireland 45¢ $2 3h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: West Indies vs Ireland BUY Ireland 45¢ $8 3h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: West Indies vs Ireland BUY Ireland 45¢ $35 3h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: West Indies vs Ireland BUY Ireland 45¢ $5 3h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: West Indies vs Ireland BUY Ireland 45¢ $59 3h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: West Indies vs Ireland BUY Ireland 45¢ $23 4h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: West Indies vs Ireland BUY Ireland 45¢ $2 4h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: West Indies vs Ireland BUY Ireland 44¢ $414 4h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: West Indies vs Ireland BUY Ireland 49¢ $21 4h
T20 Series Ireland vs India: Ireland vs India BUY Ireland 9¢ $65 28h
T20 Series Ireland vs India: Ireland vs India BUY Ireland 9¢ $5 28h
T20 Series Ireland vs India: Ireland vs India BUY Ireland 6¢ $125 28h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,005.50 · official $2,018.58 (match) · 3500 history records