Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T10:11:36+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
6D 0x6d31…3d2e world 85 markets active 2d ago coverage 482d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$13 (+0%) realized +$13 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR6%break-even
Win rate40%34W / 50L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$126per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Fees−$11est.
Kalshi-fit73%portable
Net worth$164now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$24
14 days+$22
30 days+$13
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 40% +$14
other 28% −$2
politics 21% −$4
sports 10% +$8
crypto 1% −$1
tech 0% −$2
economics 0% $0
finance 0% $0
culture 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +6%
net ROI/market (all)-9.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 +11.6% +1.0% 38% 25% -7.5%
≤30d 24 +2.8% -6.9% 25% 8% -9.2%
≤90d 29 +2.4% -7.3% 28% 7% -9.4%
all 84 +0.6% -9.0% 40% 6% -9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.0% 6% -9.4%
10% -17.7% 5% -18.1%
15% -25.6% 4% -26.0%
20% -32.9% 2% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 62% · top 2 73% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
85% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +2% → late -0% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×1.4 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.36 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

482d coverage
Net worth$164
Realized+$13
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)40%
Wins / losses34 / 50
Est. fees paid−$11
Open positions1
Markets (closed)84 / 85
History coverage482d
Avg bet$126
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit73%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 84 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? No 43¢ 44¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 15 $15 $0 +2%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 14 $267 +$31 +12%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 14 $45 −$1 -3%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 13 $143 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 13 $428 −$2 -0%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 12 $2 +$1 +74%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? Jun 11 $30 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 10 $283 −$5 -2%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 07 $135 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 07 $271 +$2 +1%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 06 $293 −$3 -1%
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? Jun 06 $137 $0 -0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 06 $15 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 04 $485 −$1 -0%
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 03 $136 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 03 $150 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 31 $150 +$1 +0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? May 30 $289 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? May 29 $203 −$3 -2%
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? May 29 $174 $0 -0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? May 28 $152 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 27 $150 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 24 $100 −$5 -5%
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? May 23 $11 −$2 -18%
Jeffrey Epstein foul play confirmed by December 31, 2026? May 13 $241 −$1 -0%
Will Lorenzo Musetti win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 24 $2,110 $0 +0%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 23 $76 +$2 +3%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect Apr 22 $2,127 −$5 -0%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 22 $920 +$2 +0%
Will the Tampa Bay Rays win the 2025 World Series? Dec 11 $1 $0 +1%
Will Walmart buy TikTok? Jun 28 $2 −$2 -83%
Will Trump sell 5k-10k Gold Cards in 2025? Jun 27 $8 $0 +4%
Will Lee Jae-myung win 2nd place in the South Korean presidential elec May 27 $6 $0 +1%
Will Elon tweet 150–174 times May 16–23? May 19 $4 $0 -2%
Will the next Government of Canada be a Liberal majority? May 19 $9 $0 +1%
Will federal spending decrease by $250-500b between Q4 2024 and Q2 202 May 14 $5 $0 -1%
Will Belgium win Eurovision 2025? May 12 $5 $0 -0%
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2025 World Series? May 11 $5 $0 +0%
Will Elon and DOGE cut more than $250b in federal spending in 2025? May 11 $5 $0 +0%
Will Aaron Rodgers sign with the Minnesota Vikings? May 10 $5 $0 -2%
Will The Fantastic Four: First Steps be the top grossing movie of 2025 May 09 $5 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $75k in May? May 09 $5 $0 -2%
Will Ethereum reach $2600 in May? May 08 $5 $0 -1%
Will the Winnipeg Jets win the 2025 Stanley Cup? May 07 $9 $0 -1%
Will Peter Turkson be the next pope? May 07 $8 $0 -0%
Will George Russell be the 2025 Drivers Champion? May 06 $9 $0 -0%
Will the next Government of Canada be a Liberal minority? May 06 $9 $0 -1%
Will Luís Montenegro be the next Prime Minister of Portugal after the May 06 $7 $0 -1%
Will Trump pardon Roger Ver in his first 100 days? May 06 $12 $0 +1%
Will Péter Erdő be the next pope? May 06 $7 $0 -1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 96¢ $15 43h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 94¢ $15 45h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 81¢ $70 2d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 81¢ $62 2d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 32¢ $44 2d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 33¢ $45 2d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $134 3d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $135 3d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL Yes $9 3d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY Yes $5 4d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY Yes $3 4d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY Yes $0 4d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 78¢ $134 4d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 78¢ $134 4d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 61¢ $76 4d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 61¢ $27 4d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 61¢ $40 4d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 62¢ $3 4d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 62¢ $3 4d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 62¢ $138 4d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 43¢ $129 4d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY No 44¢ $5 4d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY No 43¢ $28 4d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY No 43¢ $96 4d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 11¢ $3 5d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes $2 5d
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? SELL Yes 10¢ $3 6d
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? SELL Yes 10¢ $2 6d
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? SELL Yes 10¢ $26 6d
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY Yes 10¢ $28 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $164.41 · official $164.00 (match) · 315 history records