Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T21:05:38+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
6D 0x6d32…85ee other 24 markets active 1h ago coverage 5d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$61 (+20%) realized +$65 · open −$4
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +19% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -0% what you keep after slip
Net edge-0%after slip
Net WR61%break-even
Win rate61%14W / 9L
Drawdown28%max
Avg bet$13per market
Trades / day9.5pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit46%portable
Net worth$6now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 5d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 61% −$28
sports 36% +$89
crypto 3% +$7
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +61%
net ROI/market (all)+7.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 23 +19.1% +7.8% 61% 61% +12.3%
≤30d 23 +19.1% +7.8% 61% 61% +12.3%
≤90d 23 +19.1% +7.8% 61% 61% +12.3%
all 23 +19.1% +7.8% 61% 61% +12.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.5 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +7.8% 61% +12.3%
10% -2.5% 43% +1.5%
15% -11.9% 39% -8.3%
20% -20.6% 30% -17.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 26% · top 2 51% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +24% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +19% · $-wt +24% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -10% → late +46% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$10 vs −$7 · ×1.33 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×2.07 per $1 lost it wins $2.07
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

5d coverage
Net worth$6
Realized+$65
Unrealized−$4
Win rate (resolved)61%
Wins / losses14 / 9
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions1
Markets (closed)23 / 24
History coverage5d
Avg bet$13
Trades / day9.5
Drawdown28%
Kalshi-fit46%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 23 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Harry Kane: 1+ goals Yes 66¢ 38¢ $10 $6 −$4 (-43%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 6 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 5.5 Jun 23 $30 +$14 +46%
Lionel Messi: 2+ goals Jun 22 $4 +$7 +165%
Argentina vs. Austria: Austria O/U 0.5 Jun 22 $10 +$6 +59%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $40 +$8 +20%
Exact Score: Argentina 1 - 0 Austria? Jun 22 $10 −$10 -99%
Will New Zealand vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 22 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 22 $12 +$36 +297%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $17 −$12 -67%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $20 −$8 -40%
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? Jun 21 $11 +$36 +319%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $15 −$10 -68%
Belgium vs. IR Iran: Draw at halftime? Jun 21 $10 +$2 +21%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 5.5 Jun 21 $10 +$7 +70%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $23 +$3 +12%
Will Spain vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? Jun 21 $3 −$2 -97%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $10 +$5 +46%
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 21 $10 +$6 +56%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? Jun 21 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $10 +$7 +70%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $9 −$9 -98%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $18 +$2 +11%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $10 +$2 +24%
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Jun 19 $5 −$5 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Harry Kane: 1+ goals BUY Yes 66¢ $10 1h
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 5.5 SELL Under 100¢ $44 2h
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 68¢ $5 2h
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 68¢ $25 2h
Lionel Messi: 2+ goals SELL Yes 100¢ $11 25h
Argentina vs. Austria: Austria O/U 0.5 SELL Under 100¢ $16 25h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 100¢ $48 26h
Exact Score: Argentina 1 - 0 Austria? BUY Yes 52¢ $10 26h
Lionel Messi: 2+ goals BUY Yes 37¢ $4 26h
Argentina vs. Austria: Austria O/U 0.5 BUY Under 62¢ $10 27h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 83¢ $40 27h
Will New Zealand vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 30¢ $10 43h
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $48 44h
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 30¢ $6 46h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 10¢ $6 46h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 34¢ $5 46h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 27¢ $12 46h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 44¢ $12 46h
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 21¢ $6 47h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 71¢ $20 47h
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $47 2d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 23¢ $5 2d
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $3 2d
Belgium vs. IR Iran: Draw at halftime? SELL Yes 99¢ $12 2d
Belgium vs. IR Iran: Draw at halftime? BUY Yes 81¢ $10 2d
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? BUY Yes 23¢ $3 2d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 70¢ $15 2d
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? BUY Yes 21¢ $5 2d
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 5.5 SELL Under 100¢ $17 2d
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 58¢ $10 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $5.65 · official $5.65 (match) · 48 history records