Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T10:26:28+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
6D 0x6d32…b3bb crypto 28 markets active 7d ago coverage 5d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$72 (-4%) realized −$72 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR46%break-even
Win rate68%19W / 9L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$61per market
Trades / day8.9pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit86%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 5d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 65% −$85
other 19% −$41
sports 17% +$27
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +46%
net ROI/market (all)-9.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -49.9% -54.7% 50% 0% -54.4%
≤30d 28 +0.3% -9.3% 68% 46% -14.8%
≤90d 28 +0.3% -9.3% 68% 46% -14.8%
all 28 +0.3% -9.3% 68% 46% -14.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover8.9 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.3% 46% -14.8%
10% -17.9% 36% -23.0%
15% -25.9% 32% -30.4%
20% -33.1% 11% -37.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 16% · top 2 31% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
26% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +8% → late -7% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$9 vs −$30 · ×0.3 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.63 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

5d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$72
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)68%
Wins / losses19 / 9
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions0
Markets (closed)28 / 28
History coverage5d
Avg bet$61
Trades / day8.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit86%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 28 Trades
no open positions (1 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 21 $8 −$7 -97%
Belgium vs. IR Iran: Both Teams to Score Jun 21 $7 $0 +0%
Tunisia vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score Jun 21 $4 +$3 +73%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 21 $3 +$1 +44%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $2 +$1 +65%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $135 −$60 -44%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 4.5 Jun 17 $75 −$3 -4%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 17 $31 −$31 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 17 $121 −$121 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 17 $122 −$10 -8%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 4.5 Jun 17 $198 +$26 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET Jun 17 $73 +$28 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Jun 17 $188 −$16 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Jun 17 $10 +$3 +28%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Jun 17 $62 +$24 +39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET Jun 17 $21 −$19 -90%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Jun 17 $20 +$7 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Jun 17 $162 +$10 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Jun 17 $21 +$13 +63%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $146 +$2 +1%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $30 +$15 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 16 $21 +$10 +48%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 16 $84 +$8 +10%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 16 $72 +$11 +16%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 16 $20 +$4 +19%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 16 $20 +$1 +5%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 16 $30 +$3 +10%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $8 6d
Belgium vs. IR Iran: Both Teams to Score SELL No 53¢ $7 6d
Belgium vs. IR Iran: Both Teams to Score BUY No 51¢ $7 7d
Tunisia vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score BUY No 57¢ $4 7d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 69¢ $3 7d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 100¢ $3 7d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 58¢ $2 8d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 65¢ $72 10d
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 4.5 SELL Under 79¢ $72 10d
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 81¢ $75 10d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 91¢ $75 10d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 76¢ $63 11d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET BUY Up 46¢ $31 11d
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET BUY Up 82¢ $121 11d
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET SELL Down 75¢ $112 11d
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET BUY Down 79¢ $122 11d
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 88¢ $198 11d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET SELL Up 100¢ $101 11d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET BUY Up 71¢ $73 11d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET SELL Down 79¢ $172 11d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET BUY Down 84¢ $188 11d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $13 11d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET BUY Up 76¢ $10 11d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET SELL Up 100¢ $86 11d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET BUY Up 70¢ $62 11d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET SELL Up 6¢ $2 11d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET BUY Up 57¢ $21 11d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $28 11d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET BUY Down 71¢ $20 11d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET SELL Up 95¢ $173 11d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 59 history records