Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T22:04:00+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
6D 0x6d34…dfb5 crypto 416 markets active 0h ago coverage 65d ⚠
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 65d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$3,921 (+0%) realized +$4,329 · open −$408
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -10% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -34% what you keep after slip
Net edge-34%after slip
Net WR25%break-even
Win rate69%287W / 127L
Whale WR99%big bets
Drawdown27%max
Avg bet$1,974per market
Trades / day48.9pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit96%portable
Net worth$2now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 65d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 88% +$6,524
other 11% +$216
sports 1% +$30
finance 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +25%
net ROI/market (all)-19.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 177 -15.8% -23.8% 58% 33% -8.8%
≤30d 317 -13.8% -22.0% 61% 31% -8.6%
≤90d 414 -10.4% -19.0% 69% 25% -8.7%
all 414 -10.4% -19.0% 69% 25% -8.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover48.9 tr/day
realistic slip~15%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -19.0% 25% -8.7%
10% -26.7% 21% -17.5%
15% ← realistic here -33.8% 17% -25.4%
20% -40.3% 11% -32.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 12% · top 2 21% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
63% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -10% · $-wt +1% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 99% (≥$1,570) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -2% → late -19% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
7.4 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$56 vs −$71 · ×0.79 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.8 per $1 lost it wins $1.8
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

65d coverage
Net worth$2
Realized+$4,329
Unrealized−$408
Win rate (resolved)69%
Wins / losses287 / 127
Whale WR (big bets)99%
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions2
Markets (closed)414 / 416
History coverage65d ⚠
Avg bet$1,974
Trades / day48.9
Drawdown27%
Kalshi-fit96%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 414 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Bitcoin reach $77,500 in June? Yes 14¢ 0¢ $140 $1 −$138 (-99%)
Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 in June? Yes 27¢ 0¢ $270 $0 −$269 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 93 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 27 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 27 $3,877 +$820 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 27 $1,841 +$1,482 +80%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 27 $840 −$820 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 27 $356 −$344 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 27 $182 −$176 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 27 $115 −$111 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 27 $52 −$50 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 27 $53 −$4 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 27 $117 +$49 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 27 $50 −$50 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 27 $41 +$10 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 27 $177 +$86 +49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Jun 27 $52 −$52 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 27, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 27 $195 +$5 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 27 $31 +$5 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 27 $95 +$20 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 27 $99 +$53 +54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 27 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 27 $59 +$25 +43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 27 $25 −$24 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 27 $1,194 +$41 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 27 $54 +$18 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 27 $51 +$41 +80%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 27? Jun 27 $11,887 +$11 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 27 $59 +$27 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Jun 27 $53 −$3 -7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Jun 27 $94 −$45 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 27 $177 −$14 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 27 $115 +$57 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Jun 26 $47 +$14 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Jun 26 $176 +$138 +78%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Jun 26 $115 −$111 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Jun 26 $56 −$56 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Jun 26 $3,351 +$46 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 26 $52 +$22 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Jun 26 $55 +$56 +101%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Jun 26 $45 −$44 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Jun 26 $593 +$11 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 26 $902 +$612 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 26 $380 −$369 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 26 $176 −$170 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 26 $130 −$127 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 26 $171 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 26 $52 −$50 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 26, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 26 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 26 $51 +$8 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 26 $53 +$19 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 26 $54 +$14 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 26 $54 +$18 +33%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET BUY Up 3¢ $3 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET BUY Down 100¢ $3 22m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET BUY Down 100¢ $805 23m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET SELL Down 79¢ $128 27m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET SELL Down 83¢ $1,190 27m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET SELL Down 78¢ $771 28m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET SELL Down 73¢ $716 28m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET SELL Down 66¢ $453 28m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET SELL Down 65¢ $630 28m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET BUY Down 58¢ $3 29m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET BUY Down 58¢ $1 29m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET BUY Down 58¢ $896 29m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET BUY Down 58¢ $3 29m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET BUY Down 58¢ $5 29m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET BUY Down 57¢ $856 29m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET BUY Down 56¢ $27 30m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET BUY Down 56¢ $317 30m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET BUY Down 55¢ $495 30m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET BUY Down 53¢ $139 31m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $326 31m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $43 33m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $21 33m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $5 33m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $21 33m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $3 33m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $32 33m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $5 33m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $1 33m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET BUY Down 56¢ $8 33m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET BUY Down 56¢ $28 33m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2.00 · official $2.00 (match) · 3500 history records