Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T08:17:08+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
6D 0x6d34…5d33 world 53 markets active 2h ago coverage 541d
TRAPdo not copy world specialist
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$22 (+1%) realized +$22 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +12% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +1% what you keep after slip
Net edge+1%after slip
Net WR9%break-even
Win rate47%25W / 28L
Drawdown22%max
Avg bet$52per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit81%portable
Net worth$1now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days+$1
14 days−$4
30 days−$3
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 40% −$6
other 28% +$4
sports 17% +$23
economics 11% +$1
finance 3% +$2
politics 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +9%
net ROI/market (all)+1.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 +0.5% -9.1% 40% 0% -9.3%
≤30d 28 +6.8% -3.4% 36% 4% -9.8%
≤90d 39 +10.7% +0.1% 33% 5% -9.7%
all 53 +11.9% +1.3% 47% 9% -8.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +1.3% 9% -8.7%
10% -8.4% 9% -17.4%
15% -17.3% 8% -25.4%
20% -25.4% 8% -32.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 40% · top 2 69% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
80% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +12% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +17% → late +7% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×2.09 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×3.08 per $1 lost it wins $3.08
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

541d coverage
Net worth$1
Realized+$22
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)47%
Wins / losses25 / 28
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions0
Markets (closed)53 / 53
History coverage541d
Avg bet$52
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown22%
Kalshi-fit81%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 53 Trades
no open positions (1 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? Jun 23 $35 $0 +0%
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? Jun 22 $32 $0 +0%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 21 $18 +$1 +4%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? Jun 21 $34 $0 +0%
Cuban regime falls in 2026? Jun 19 $31 $0 +1%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 18 $34 $0 -0%
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 18 $32 $0 -0%
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 18 $3 $0 +0%
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 17 $39 $0 -0%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 16 $39 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 14 $12 −$5 -40%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 14 $27 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 13 $9 $0 +1%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 12 $61 $0 +0%
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 10 $28 $0 +0%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? Jun 09 $35 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 09 $133 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 09 $33 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 08 $35 +$1 +3%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 06 $33 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 05 $49 −$2 -3%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 02 $45 $0 -0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? May 31 $75 $0 -0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? May 29 $3 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 29 $111 $0 +0%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 28 $77 +$2 +3%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? May 27 $40 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 26 $41 −$1 -2%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? May 24 $40 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 22 $36 $0 -0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? May 21 $34 −$1 -4%
Jeffrey Epstein foul play confirmed by December 31, 2026? May 14 $214 $0 +0%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 24 $303 $0 -0%
Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 24 $305 +$1 +0%
Will Lorenzo Musetti win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 23 $301 $0 +0%
Will the Carolina Panthers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Apr 22 $4 $0 -0%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 22 $118 $0 -0%
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by May 15? Apr 21 $5 $0 -8%
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? Apr 21 $23 +$1 +2%
Will Trump acquire Greenland before July? Dec 06 $1 $0 +2%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after June 2025 meeting? Jun 19 $1 $0 +1%
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after June 2025 meeting? Jun 19 $2 $0 +1%
Will Han Duck-soo be elected the next president of South Korea? Jun 04 $2 $0 +4%
Will Elon tweet 300-324 times March 21-28? Mar 27 $39 +$1 +2%
Will 'Magazine Dreams' gross more than 3m on opening weekend? Mar 22 $39 $0 +0%
Will Carmelo Anthony make the 2025 Class of the Naismith Basketball Ha Mar 21 $38 $0 +1%
Will 'The Fantastic Four: First Steps' have the best domestic opening Feb 28 $34 +$3 +8%
Will Trump pardon less than 250 Jan 6 protestors in his first 100 days Feb 28 $1 $0 +26%
Florida Gulf Coast vs. Stetson Feb 22 $14 +$14 +100%
Will Maya Moore make the 2025 Class of the Naismith Basketball Hall of Feb 22 $9 −$1 -6%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? SELL No 93¢ $35 1h
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? BUY No 93¢ $35 4h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL No 70¢ $27 9h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL No 70¢ $5 9h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY No 70¢ $6 11h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY No 70¢ $27 11h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 25¢ $12 47h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 25¢ $7 47h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 24¢ $18 2d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $31 2d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $3 2d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $34 2d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 82¢ $31 3d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY No 81¢ $8 3d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY No 81¢ $23 3d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 95¢ $16 4d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 95¢ $15 4d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 95¢ $31 4d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 85¢ $31 4d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 86¢ $9 5d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 85¢ $23 5d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL Yes 9¢ $3 5d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY Yes 9¢ $3 5d
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 6d
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 6d
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 6d
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 6d
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 6d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL No 100¢ $1 6d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 4¢ $3 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1.29 · official $1.00 (match) · 201 history records