Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T08:52:57+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
6D 0x6d37…2f72 crypto 754 markets active 1h ago coverage 375d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$3,445 (-13%) realized −$3,387 · open −$58
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -13% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR34%break-even
Win rate34%255W / 487L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$36per market
Trades / day3.6pace
Kalshi-fit78%portable
Net worth$76now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$25
7 days+$148
14 days+$148
30 days+$148
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 71% −$3,483
other 24% −$326
politics 2% +$181
world 1% −$99
tech 1% −$64
economics 1% −$141
weather 0% −$70
sports 0% +$34
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +34%
net ROI/market (all)-21.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 +202.2% +173.4% 45% 45% +41.0%
≤30d 11 +202.2% +173.4% 45% 45% +41.0%
≤90d 48 -5.7% -14.7% 25% 23% -6.2%
all 742 -12.9% -21.2% 34% 34% -23.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.6 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -21.2% 34% -23.1%
10% -28.8% 33% -30.5%
15% -35.6% 30% -37.2%
20% -42.0% 29% -43.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 15% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
1% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -13% · $-wt -16% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -6% → late -20% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$36 vs −$27 · ×1.34 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.7 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

375d coverage
Net worth$76
Realized−$3,387
Unrealized−$58
Win rate (resolved)34%
Wins / losses255 / 487
Open positions12
Markets (closed)742 / 754
History coverage375d
Avg bet$36
Trades / day3.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit78%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 12 History 742 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from June 26 to July 3, 2026? Yes 4¢ 4¢ $20 $18 −$2 (-10%)
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from June 26 to July 3, 2026? Yes 3¢ 2¢ $20 $14 −$6 (-28%)
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $10 $12 +$3 (+25%)
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $10 $12 +$2 (+16%)
Will Elon Musk post 500+ tweets from June 26 to July 3, 2026? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $10 $6 −$4 (-42%)
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from June 26 to July 3, 2026? Yes 2¢ 1¢ $10 $4 −$6 (-56%)
Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from June 26 to July 3, 2026? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $10 $4 −$6 (-62%)
Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $4 $2 −$2 (-50%)
Will Elon Musk post 500+ tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $10 $1 −$9 (-87%)
Will Elon Musk post 460-479 tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $10 $1 −$9 (-89%)
Will Elon Musk post 440-459 tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $10 $1 −$9 (-90%)
Will Elon Musk post 480-499 tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $10 $1 −$9 (-92%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 341 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 27 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 27 $26 +$14 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 27 $26 +$26 +101%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? Jun 26 $25 +$11 +42%
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? Jun 23 $31 −$30 -95%
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? Jun 23 $52 −$50 -96%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? Jun 23 $10 +$211 +2012%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? Jun 23 $47 −$45 -96%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? Jun 23 $10 +$62 +592%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 23 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 23 $21 −$20 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 7, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Apr 07 $10 −$10 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 7, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Apr 07 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 7, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Apr 07 $5 −$5 -93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 7, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Apr 07 $9 −$8 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 7, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Apr 07 $16 −$15 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 7, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Apr 07 $8 −$8 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 7, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Apr 07 $4 −$4 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 7, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Apr 07 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 7, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Apr 07 $8 +$7 +85%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 7, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Apr 07 $4 −$4 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 7, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Apr 07 $4 +$4 +96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 7, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Apr 07 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 7, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Apr 07 $8 +$8 +100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 7, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Apr 07 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 7, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Apr 07 $4 −$4 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 7, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Apr 07 $2 −$2 -96%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from March 31 to April 7, 2026? Apr 07 $42 +$13 +31%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from March 31 to April 7, 2026? Apr 06 $20 −$19 -96%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from March 31 to April 7, 2026? Apr 06 $1 −$1 -95%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from March 31 to April 7, 2026? Apr 06 $10 +$6 +58%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from April 3 to April 10, 2026? Apr 06 $20 −$19 -95%
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from March 31 to April 7, 2026? Apr 06 $10 +$1 +9%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from March 27 to April 3, 2026? Apr 05 $8 −$8 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from March 27 to April 3, 2026? Apr 02 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 580+ tweets from April 3 to April 10, 2026? Apr 01 $4 −$4 -95%
Will Elon Musk post 580+ tweets from March 31 to April 7, 2026? Apr 01 $3 −$3 -95%
Will Elon Musk post 500-519 tweets from March 27 to April 3, 2026? Mar 31 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 480-499 tweets from March 27 to April 3, 2026? Mar 31 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 460-479 tweets from March 27 to April 3, 2026? Mar 31 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 440-459 tweets from March 27 to April 3, 2026? Mar 31 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 420-439 tweets from March 27 to April 3, 2026? Mar 31 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from March 27 to April 3, 2026? Mar 31 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from March 27 to April 3, 2026? Mar 31 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from March 24 to March 31, 2026? Mar 30 $31 −$5 -16%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from March 24 to March 31, 2026? Mar 29 $26 −$21 -79%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from March 24 to March 31, 2026? Mar 29 $13 −$13 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from March 24 to March 31, 2026? Mar 29 $20 +$13 +66%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Mar 28 $27 −$26 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Mar 28 $9 −$9 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from June 26 to July 3, 2026? BUY Yes 3¢ $10 46m
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from June 26 to July 3, 2026? BUY Yes 4¢ $10 46m
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from June 26 to July 3, 2026? BUY Yes 4¢ $10 56m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $26 58m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET SELL Up 94¢ $40 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET BUY Up 59¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET BUY Down 48¢ $26 1h
Will Elon Musk post 500+ tweets from June 26 to July 3, 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $10 2h
Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from June 26 to July 3, 2026? BUY Yes 1¢ $10 2h
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from June 26 to July 3, 2026? BUY Yes 2¢ $10 2h
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from June 26 to July 3, 2026? BUY Yes 2¢ $10 2h
Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $4 19h
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 1¢ $10 19h
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 2¢ $10 19h
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? BUY Yes 8¢ $10 21h
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? BUY Yes 5¢ $4 26h
Will Elon Musk post 440-459 tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $10 3d
Will Elon Musk post 460-479 tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $10 3d
Will Elon Musk post 480-499 tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 1¢ $10 3d
Will Elon Musk post 500+ tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $10 3d
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? BUY Yes 2¢ $31 3d
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? BUY Yes 5¢ $52 3d
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? SELL Yes 14¢ $25 3d
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? SELL Yes 14¢ $197 3d
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? BUY Yes 5¢ $47 3d
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? SELL Yes 18¢ $73 3d
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? SELL Yes 31¢ $33 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET BUY Up 19¢ $5 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET BUY Up 16¢ $5 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET BUY Up 22¢ $5 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $76.41 · official $76.41 (match) · 1556 history records