Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T20:36:54+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
6D 0x6d38…376c other 29 markets active 1h ago coverage 669d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ Small sample
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$805 (-29%) realized −$804 · open −$1
Gross ROI / mkt +14% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +4% what you keep after slip
Net edge+4%after slip
Net WR41%break-even
Win rate44%12W / 15L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$95per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Fees−$35est.
Kalshi-fit48%portable
Net worth$14now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$120
7 days−$69
14 days−$69
30 days−$750
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 80% −$457
other 18% −$255
culture 1% −$2
crypto 0% −$4
politics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +41%
net ROI/market (all)+3.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -28.1% -34.9% 20% 20% -20.9%
≤30d 9 -11.3% -19.7% 33% 33% -37.1%
≤90d 10 -10.2% -18.7% 30% 30% -36.0%
all 27 +14.5% +3.6% 44% 41% -33.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +3.6% 41% -33.5%
10% -6.3% 33% -39.8%
15% -15.4% 33% -45.6%
20% -23.7% 26% -51.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 66% · top 2 85% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -29% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
8% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +14% · $-wt -26% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +62% → late -29% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$67 vs −$101 · ×0.66 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.53 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

669d coverage
Net worth$14
Realized−$804
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses12 / 15
Est. fees paid−$35
Open positions2
Markets (closed)27 / 29
History coverage669d
Avg bet$95
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit48%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 27 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Exact Score: Germany 2 - 0 Paraguay? Yes 14¢ 14¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-4%)
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 1 Morocco? Yes 10¢ 10¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-5%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Brazil vs. Japan: Team to Advance Jun 29 $164 +$154 +94%
Brazil vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 Jun 29 $99 −$24 -25%
Brazil vs. Japan: O/U 1.5 Jun 29 $98 −$9 -10%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Jun 27 $90 −$90 -100%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $99 −$99 -100%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 14 $1,267 −$1,179 -93%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? Jun 13 $88 −$88 -100%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 31 $44 +$56 +129%
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 30 $514 +$530 +103%
Will Mercedes be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 22 $98 $0 -0%
Will FC Bayern München win on 2025-11-26? Mar 26 $22 −$22 -100%
Will Bitcoin hit $100k in 2024? Mar 26 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Luca Doncic lead the NBA in scoring? Mar 26 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Liverpool FC win on 2025-11-26? Nov 26 $20 −$2 -8%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2025-11-26? Nov 26 $20 +$10 +48%
Will Tottenham Hotspur FC win on 2025-11-26? Nov 26 $5 $0 -8%
Will Lando Norris be the 2025 Drivers Champion? Nov 23 $11 +$29 +274%
Will Mercedes finish second in the 2025 Constructors' Championship? Nov 09 $10 +$2 +20%
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2025 Drivers Champion? Oct 17 $22 −$2 -7%
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2025 NBA Finals? Oct 10 $7 +$3 +37%
Liverpool wins the Premier League? Oct 10 $9 +$13 +148%
Will Jake Paul win his boxing match against Mike Tyson? Nov 16 $10 +$6 +59%
$WIF listed on Coinbase in 2024? Nov 16 $1 +$2 +223%
Taylor Swift and Travis Kelce break up in September? Sep 27 $1 $0 +2%
Will the Chiefs win Super Bowl 2025? Sep 27 $2 $0 -4%
Will there be another debate? Sep 27 $1 $0 +12%
Trump in jail before election day? Sep 06 $1 $0 -2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 1 Morocco? BUY Yes 10¢ $5 43m
Exact Score: Germany 2 - 0 Paraguay? BUY Yes 14¢ $10 54m
Exact Score: Germany 2 - 0 Paraguay? SELL Yes 13¢ $14 57m
Exact Score: Germany 2 - 0 Paraguay? BUY Yes 14¢ $15 1h
Brazil vs. Japan: Team to Advance SELL Brazil 100¢ $317 1h
Brazil vs. Japan: Team to Advance SELL Brazil 49¢ $2 3h
Brazil vs. Japan: Team to Advance BUY Brazil 50¢ $75 3h
Brazil vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 45¢ $75 3h
Brazil vs. Japan: Team to Advance BUY Brazil 51¢ $89 3h
Brazil vs. Japan: O/U 1.5 SELL Under 28¢ $89 3h
Brazil vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 58¢ $99 3h
Brazil vs. Japan: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 30¢ $98 3h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 15¢ $99 2d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 62¢ $90 4d
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 19¢ $69 15d
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 64¢ $2 29d
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 64¢ $1,098 29d
Spurs vs. Thunder BUY Spurs 43¢ $44 29d
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? SELL Yes 100¢ $1,012 29d
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? SELL Yes 100¢ $31 29d
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? BUY Yes 47¢ $200 30d
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? BUY Yes 49¢ $198 30d
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? BUY Yes 50¢ $116 30d
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? BUY Yes 41¢ $88 30d
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL Yes 26¢ $29 30d
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL Yes 26¢ $59 34d
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 26¢ $36 34d
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 26¢ $31 34d
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 31¢ $31 38d
Will Mercedes be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL Yes 75¢ $98 38d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $14.39 · official $14.39 (match) · 73 history records