Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T21:16:25+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
6D 0x6d39…ccb7 world 88 markets active 2h ago coverage 527d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$12 (-0%) realized −$13 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR6%break-even
Win rate32%28W / 59L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$33per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit77%portable
Net worth$35now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$1
14 days−$6
30 days−$7
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 52% −$6
other 26% +$1
politics 10% $0
sports 7% −$5
economics 4% $0
finance 0% −$1
crypto 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +6%
net ROI/market (all)-10.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 +0.6% -9.0% 50% 0% -9.2%
≤30d 34 +1.5% -8.2% 32% 9% -10.0%
≤90d 75 +0.5% -9.1% 28% 4% -9.8%
all 87 -0.5% -10.0% 32% 6% -9.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.0% 6% -9.9%
10% -18.6% 5% -18.5%
15% -26.5% 3% -26.4%
20% -33.7% 2% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 34% · top 2 54% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
82% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late +1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×0.63 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.57 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

527d coverage
Net worth$35
Realized−$13
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)32%
Wins / losses28 / 59
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions1
Markets (closed)87 / 88
History coverage527d
Avg bet$33
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit77%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 87 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? No 93¢ 96¢ $33 $34 +$1 (+4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 23 $8 $0 +0%
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? Jun 22 $22 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 21 $19 +$1 +4%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 20 $84 $0 -0%
Cuban regime falls in 2026? Jun 20 $36 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 19 $32 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? Jun 18 $24 $0 +1%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 17 $35 $0 +0%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? Jun 15 $32 −$1 -2%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 14 $33 $0 -2%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 14 $34 $0 +0%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 14 $74 $0 +0%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 13 $50 −$6 -12%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 12 $1 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 11 $19 $0 +1%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? Jun 09 $43 −$1 -3%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 09 $86 +$1 +1%
Will France, UK, or Germany strike Iran by June 30? Jun 08 $1 +$1 +58%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 07 $101 $0 -0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 07 $39 $0 +0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 06 $43 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 05 $112 $0 -0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 05 $89 +$3 +3%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 05 $84 $0 -0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? Jun 03 $9 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 03 $81 $0 -0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Jun 03 $40 $0 -0%
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? Jun 02 $34 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? May 30 $25 +$1 +3%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 30 $2 −$1 -29%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 29 $1 $0 +12%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? May 28 $13 −$1 -9%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 28 $43 −$1 -3%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 28 $10 −$1 -10%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by May 31, 2026? May 21 $84 $0 +0%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? May 19 $42 $0 -1%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 17 $47 $0 +1%
Will New People (NL) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamen May 17 $78 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 16 $13 $0 +0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? May 14 $11 $0 +0%
Will Lorenzo Musetti win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 27 $46 $0 +0%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 27 $71 $0 +0%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 26 $2 $0 +0%
Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 26 $83 $0 -0%
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 26 $44 $0 +0%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 26 $1 $0 -3%
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 23 $85 $0 +0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? Apr 23 $41 $0 -0%
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 22 $13 $0 -3%
Will Joao Fonseca win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 21 $120 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? BUY No 93¢ $33 1h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 92¢ $8 2h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 92¢ $8 4h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL Yes 30¢ $22 22h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY Yes 30¢ $21 24h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY Yes 30¢ $1 24h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL No 13¢ $13 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY No 12¢ $3 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY No 13¢ $4 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY No 12¢ $4 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY No 12¢ $1 3d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 94¢ $36 3d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY No 94¢ $36 3d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 83¢ $27 3d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 83¢ $8 3d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY No 83¢ $36 3d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 89¢ $32 4d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 89¢ $32 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL Yes 40¢ $2 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL Yes 36¢ $22 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY Yes 36¢ $20 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY Yes 36¢ $4 5d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 95¢ $35 6d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 95¢ $35 6d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? SELL No 93¢ $32 8d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? BUY No 95¢ $32 8d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 66¢ $19 9d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 66¢ $13 9d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 67¢ $4 9d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 67¢ $25 9d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $34.75 · official $33.77 (match) · 340 history records