Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T07:33:33+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
6D 0x6d39…3e88 other 34 markets active 0h ago coverage 16d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$36 (-8%) realized −$36 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -13% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate3%1W / 33L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$14per market
Trades / day4.5pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit47%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$4
7 days−$37
14 days−$44
30 days−$46
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 33% −$32
tech 16% −$3
finance 12% −$2
weather 11% −$4
politics 10% −$3
sports 9% −$2
world 9% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-21.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 26 -15.5% -23.5% 0% 0% -20.5%
≤30d 34 -13.2% -21.5% 3% 0% -18.4%
≤90d 34 -13.2% -21.5% 3% 0% -18.4%
all 34 -13.2% -21.5% 3% 0% -18.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.5 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -21.5% 0% -18.4%
10% -29.0% 0% -26.2%
15% -35.8% 0% -33.4%
20% -42.1% 0% -39.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 100% · top 2 100% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -10% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -13% · $-wt -10% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -12% → late -15% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.22 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.01 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

16d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$36
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)3%
Wins / losses1 / 33
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions0
Markets (closed)34 / 34
History coverage16d
Avg bet$14
Trades / day4.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit47%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 34 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Aurelien Tchouameni stay at Real Madrid? Jun 18 $19 $0 -0%
Will GPT-5.6 not be released by June 28, 2026? Jun 18 $38 −$1 -2%
Will Hurupay launch a token by June 30, 2027? Jun 16 $16 −$2 -11%
Will Pamela Evette win the 2026 South Carolina Governor Republican pri Jun 16 $37 −$2 -4%
Will City Protocol launch a token by June 30, 2027? Jun 16 $9 −$2 -28%
Will Hyperliquid HIP-3 open interest hit $9B in 2026? Jun 16 $11 −$7 -67%
Will the announcers say "Shot" 20+ times during the England vs Croatia Jun 16 $14 −$1 -5%
Will Anthropic IPO by October 31, 2026? Jun 15 $26 −$7 -25%
Will Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) hit (HIGH) $450 Week of June 15 2026? Jun 15 $21 −$1 -4%
Will Julian Alvarez score 1+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $17 $0 -2%
Will Austria be eliminated in Group Stage stage of the World Cup? Jun 12 $1 $0 -7%
Will Austria be eliminated in the Round of 32 of the World Cup? Jun 12 $12 $0 -1%
Will Julian Alvarez score 2+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $12 −$1 -10%
Will Senegal finish second in Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Jun 12 $1 $0 -5%
Will Noah Okafor score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $4 $0 -2%
Will Mexico finish second in Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Jun 12 $6 −$4 -72%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? Jun 12 $17 $0 -1%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 17? Jun 12 $9 $0 -2%
Will 9+ matches go to extra time during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $9 −$1 -6%
Will Yuito Suzuki be in Japan's Starting 11? Jun 12 $7 −$6 -85%
Will Lamine Yamal score 1+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $2 $0 -16%
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (LOW) $192 in June? Jun 12 $5 $0 -6%
Will Czechia finish second in Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Jun 12 $2 −$1 -27%
Will Mikel Merino score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $3 $0 -4%
Will there be 10+ VAR decisions overturned during the 2026 FIFA World Jun 12 $1 $0 -3%
Will Anthropic have the third best AI model at the end of July 2026? Jun 12 $12 −$1 -5%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 30? Jun 10 $13 $0 +0%
Will annual inflation be 4.2% in May? Jun 10 $27 −$1 -4%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on June 5? Jun 05 $19 −$4 -21%
Will Loranne Ausley win the Tallahassee mayoral election? Jun 05 $12 −$1 -12%
Will the lowest temperature in London be 13°C on June 4? Jun 04 $14 −$1 -4%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 82-83°F on Ju Jun 03 $18 $0 +2%
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on June 3? Jun 03 $28 −$1 -2%
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $750 Week of June 1 2026? Jun 02 $27 −$1 -4%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Aurelien Tchouameni stay at Real Madrid? SELL Yes 93¢ $19 4m
Will Aurelien Tchouameni stay at Real Madrid? BUY Yes 93¢ $19 4m
Will GPT-5.6 not be released by June 28, 2026? SELL No 74¢ $37 1h
Will GPT-5.6 not be released by June 28, 2026? BUY No 74¢ $38 1h
Will Hurupay launch a token by June 30, 2027? SELL No 64¢ $14 44h
Will Hurupay launch a token by June 30, 2027? BUY No 68¢ $16 44h
Will Pamela Evette win the 2026 South Carolina Governor Republican pri SELL No 68¢ $36 45h
Will Pamela Evette win the 2026 South Carolina Governor Republican pri BUY No 69¢ $37 45h
Will City Protocol launch a token by June 30, 2027? SELL No 28¢ $6 2d
Will City Protocol launch a token by June 30, 2027? BUY No 37¢ $9 2d
Will Hyperliquid HIP-3 open interest hit $9B in 2026? SELL Yes 17¢ $4 2d
Will Hyperliquid HIP-3 open interest hit $9B in 2026? BUY Yes 50¢ $11 2d
Will the announcers say "Shot" 20+ times during the England vs Croatia SELL No 59¢ $13 2d
Will the announcers say "Shot" 20+ times during the England vs Croatia BUY No 60¢ $14 2d
Will Anthropic IPO by October 31, 2026? SELL No 39¢ $19 2d
Will Anthropic IPO by October 31, 2026? BUY No 51¢ $26 2d
Will Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) hit (HIGH) $450 Week of June 15 2026? SELL No 80¢ $20 3d
Will Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) hit (HIGH) $450 Week of June 15 2026? BUY No 82¢ $21 3d
Will Julian Alvarez score 1+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 82¢ $16 5d
Will Julian Alvarez score 1+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 83¢ $17 5d
Will Austria be eliminated in Group Stage stage of the World Cup? SELL Yes 19¢ $1 5d
Will Austria be eliminated in Group Stage stage of the World Cup? BUY Yes 20¢ $1 5d
Will Austria be eliminated in the Round of 32 of the World Cup? SELL Yes 53¢ $6 5d
Will Austria be eliminated in the Round of 32 of the World Cup? SELL Yes 53¢ $5 5d
Will Austria be eliminated in the Round of 32 of the World Cup? BUY Yes 53¢ $6 5d
Will Austria be eliminated in the Round of 32 of the World Cup? BUY Yes 53¢ $5 5d
Will Julian Alvarez score 2+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 46¢ $10 5d
Will Julian Alvarez score 2+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 50¢ $12 5d
Will Senegal finish second in Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group SELL Yes 19¢ $1 5d
Will Senegal finish second in Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group BUY Yes 19¢ $1 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 80 history records