Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T11:30:14+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
6D 0x6d39…8ee9 world 48 markets active 1h ago coverage 324d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$0 (+0%) realized +$0 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate35%16W / 30L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$33per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Kalshi-fit77%portable
Net worth$38now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$2
7 days+$4
14 days+$4
30 days−$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 46% −$3
other 23% +$2
politics 20% $0
weather 4% $0
culture 3% $0
finance 3% $0
economics 1% $0
sports 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-10.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 +1.1% -8.5% 56% 0% -8.6%
≤30d 23 -0.8% -10.2% 39% 0% -9.5%
≤90d 23 -0.8% -10.2% 39% 0% -9.5%
all 46 -0.6% -10.1% 35% 0% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.1% 0% -9.6%
10% -18.7% 0% -18.2%
15% -26.5% 0% -26.1%
20% -33.7% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 26% · top 2 44% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×1.05 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.94 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

324d coverage
Net worth$38
Realized+$0
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)35%
Wins / losses16 / 30
Open positions2
Markets (closed)46 / 48
History coverage324d
Avg bet$33
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit77%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 46 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? No 98¢ 98¢ $37 $37 −$0 (-0%)
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? No 98¢ 100¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? Jun 24 $43 −$1 -2%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 23 $41 +$2 +5%
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? Jun 23 $71 +$1 +2%
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 21 $40 $0 +0%
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? Jun 21 $39 +$1 +2%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 20 $39 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 20 $76 $0 +0%
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 19 $34 +$1 +3%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 17 $33 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 07 $37 $0 +0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 07 $22 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 06 $33 $0 +1%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? Jun 05 $34 $0 -1%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 05 $36 $0 +0%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? Jun 02 $42 $0 -0%
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? May 31 $4 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? May 30 $70 −$1 -2%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab May 29 $35 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 28 $14 −$3 -24%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 28 $37 +$1 +2%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? May 28 $16 −$1 -4%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 27 $38 $0 -1%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 27 $42 $0 +0%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals? Aug 18 $6 $0 -0%
Xi Jinping out before October? Aug 14 $5 $0 +0%
Will ODS win the most seats in the next Czech parliamentary election? Aug 10 $48 $0 -0%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Aug 10 $4 $0 -0%
Will Elon tweet 215–229 times August 8–August 15? Aug 10 $5 $0 -0%
Will Ben Griffin win the 2025 FedEx St. Jude Championship? Aug 10 $11 $0 +0%
Will Trump sell 25k-100k Gold Cards in 2025? Aug 10 $42 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 89-90°F on Au Aug 10 $5 $0 +0%
Will Trump acquire Greenland in 2025? Aug 10 $7 $0 +0%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Aug 09 $39 $0 +0%
Will Trump deport 500,000-750,000- people? Aug 08 $8 $0 -3%
Will the Seattle Mariners win the 2025 World Series? Aug 08 $63 $0 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Aug 07 $67 $0 +1%
Will the San Francisco 49ers win Super Bowl 2026? Aug 07 $34 $0 -0%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Aug 06 $12 $0 -0%
Will the Philadelphia Phillies win the 2025 World Series? Aug 06 $7 −$1 -7%
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin Aug 06 $38 $0 +0%
Will Zootopia 2 be the top grossing movie of 2025? Aug 05 $45 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Aug 05 $58 $0 +0%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after September 2025 meeting? Aug 05 $11 $0 -0%
Will Heather Humphreys win the Irish Presidential Election? Aug 05 $1 $0 +0%
Will global temperature increase by more than 1.10ºC in July 2025? Aug 04 $59 $0 +0%
2025 July hottest on record? Aug 04 $58 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $37 1h
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? SELL No 89¢ $37 4h
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? BUY No 90¢ $38 7h
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? SELL Yes 10¢ $4 12h
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? BUY Yes 11¢ $5 14h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL No 87¢ $38 18h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY No 82¢ $36 23h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? SELL No 86¢ $36 28h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? BUY No 86¢ $36 31h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 24¢ $5 36h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 25¢ $5 38h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 93¢ $40 2d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 93¢ $40 2d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $40 2d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? BUY No 95¢ $39 3d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 94¢ $39 3d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY No 94¢ $39 3d
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? SELL No 81¢ $36 3d
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? BUY No 78¢ $35 4d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 88¢ $38 4d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 88¢ $38 4d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 92¢ $4 4d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 92¢ $31 4d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 89¢ $34 4d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 89¢ $34 5d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 89¢ $34 5d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL Yes 10¢ $4 6d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes 10¢ $4 6d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 96¢ $4 6d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 96¢ $30 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $37.79 · official $37.11 (match) · 170 history records