Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T17:02:15+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

6D
0x6d3d…51b8
sports · 42 markets active 1h ago
0.5score
+$29 +2%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$10 · open −$34
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP sports specialistFading edge
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$28
Realized+$10
Unrealized−$34
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses18 / 23
Est. fees paid−$28
Open positions1
Markets (closed)41 / 42
History coverage61d
Avg bet$43
Trades / day1.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit98%
Chart Positions 1 History 41 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$128
7 days+$80
14 days+$20
30 days+$20
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality - Map 2 Winner BetBoom Team 21¢ 10¢ $62 $28 −$34 (-55%)
Counter-Strike: UNiTY esports vs ex-MANA eSports (BO3) - United21 Playoffs UNiTY esports 36¢ 0¢ $46 $0 −$46 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner MOUZ 28¢ 0¢ $52 $0 −$52 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: ex-RUBY vs INOX Division - Map 1 Winner ex-RUBY 15¢ 0¢ $29 $0 −$29 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: Washed vs STATE - Map 2 Winner Washed 49¢ 0¢ $73 $0 −$73 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: MARKandLARRY vs Abyssal - Map 1 Winner MARKandLARRY 13¢ 0¢ $17 $0 −$17 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Aurora Gaming 19¢ 0¢ $24 $0 −$24 (-100%)
Dota 2: 4ikibamboni vs Ilbirs eSports - Game 2 Winner Ilbirs eSports 27¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: Clutchain vs ex-MANA eSports (BO3) - United21 Playoffs ex-MANA eSports 28¢ 0¢ $21 $0 −$21 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: Ursa vs Leo Team - Map 1 Winner Leo Team 42¢ 0¢ $50 $0 −$50 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Rio Group B Natus Vincere 76¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: Eternal Fire Academy vs WRAITH PCIFIC (BO3) - TESFED League Playoffs Eternal Fire Academy 52¢ 0¢ $111 $0 −$111 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: Bushido Wildcats vs VENOM ESPOR (BO3) - TESFED League Playoffs Bushido Wildcats 48¢ 0¢ $27 $0 −$27 (-100%)
LoL: LOS vs paiN Gaming - Game 2 Winner paiN Gaming 7¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs Virtus.pro - Map 1 Winner Virtus.pro 38¢ 0¢ $57 $0 −$57 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: Oxuji Esports vs Misa Esports (BO3) - European Pro League Series 7 Group B Oxuji Esports 36¢ 0¢ $19 $0 −$19 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: RoundsGG vs ENRAGE (BO3) - ESEA Advanced Europe Playoffs ENRAGE 24¢ 0¢ $30 $0 −$30 (-100%)
LoL: LOS vs paiN Gaming (BO3) - Esports World Cup South America & LATAM Qualifier Playoffs paiN Gaming 30¢ 0¢ $22 $0 −$22 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Vitality - Map 1 Winner Spirit 8¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $120 +$1 +1%
Counter-Strike: ex-RUBY vs INOX Division - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $30 −$29 -98%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $266 +$92 +35%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $53 −$52 -98%
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs Leo Team - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $4 −$1 -36%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $75 +$103 +137%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $70 +$16 +23%
Counter-Strike: Washed vs STATE - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $74 −$73 -98%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 12 $25 −$24 -98%
Counter-Strike: Eternal Fire Academy vs WRAITH PCIFIC (BO3) - TESFED L Jun 12 $113 −$111 -99%
Counter-Strike: Ursa vs Leo Team - Map 1 Winner Jun 12 $51 −$50 -98%
Counter-Strike: Clutchain vs ex-MANA eSports (BO3) - United21 Playoffs Jun 12 $21 −$21 -98%
Counter-Strike: MARKandLARRY vs Abyssal - Map 1 Winner Jun 12 $17 −$17 -98%
Counter-Strike: Bebop vs Oxuji Esports (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Gr Jun 11 $40 +$10 +25%
Counter-Strike: Bebop vs Oxuji Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 11 $40 +$37 +93%
Counter-Strike: illwill vs RUSTEC - Map 1 Winner Jun 11 $53 +$26 +50%
Counter-Strike: UNiTY esports vs ex-MANA eSports (BO3) - United21 Play Jun 11 $47 −$46 -98%
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs Virtus.pro - Map 1 Winner Jun 11 $58 −$57 -98%
LoL: LOS vs paiN Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 10 $3 −$3 -97%
Counter-Strike: B8 Academy vs Donstu Esports (BO3) - ESEA Advanced Eur Jun 10 $20 +$67 +327%
LoL: LOS vs paiN Gaming (BO3) - Esports World Cup South America & LATA Jun 10 $22 −$22 -98%
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs Leo Team (BO3) - CCT Europe Series 4 Group Jun 10 $73 +$54 +74%
Dota 2: Level UP vs Yellow Submarine (BO3) - The International Europe Jun 10 $1 $0 +34%
Dota 2: Level UP vs Yellow Submarine - Game 2 Winner Jun 10 $18 +$35 +188%
LoL: Misa Esports vs E WIE EINFACH E-SPORTS - Game 1 Winner Jun 10 $35 +$19 +54%
Dota 2: Rune Eaters vs Nemiga Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 10 $23 +$33 +139%
Counter-Strike: G2 Ares vs Young Ninjas (BO3) - European Pro League Se Jun 10 $43 +$68 +158%
Counter-Strike: G2 Ares vs Young Ninjas - Map 2 Winner Jun 10 $37 +$16 +43%
Counter-Strike: TDK vs INOX Division (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Grou Jun 07 $22 +$35 +158%
Counter-Strike: Bushido Wildcats vs VENOM ESPOR (BO3) - TESFED League Jun 07 $27 −$27 -98%
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs Lazer Cats (BO3) - European Pro League Seri Jun 07 $26 +$5 +20%
Dota 2: 4ikibamboni vs Ilbirs eSports - Game 2 Winner Jun 06 $10 −$10 -98%
Counter-Strike: RoundsGG vs ENRAGE (BO3) - ESEA Advanced Europe Playof Jun 05 $31 −$30 -98%
Counter-Strike: Oxuji Esports vs Misa Esports (BO3) - European Pro Lea Jun 05 $19 −$19 -98%
Dota 2: Estar Backs vs Team Nemesis - Game 1 Winner Jun 03 $33 −$3 -8%
Counter-Strike: TDK vs Atreides (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Group Sta Jun 03 $42 −$5 -12%
Dota 2: REKONIX vs GLYPH - Game 2 Winner Jun 03 $38 +$14 +36%
Counter-Strike: LPH Gaming vs eSuba - Map 2 Winner Jun 01 $22 −$12 -54%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Vitality - Map 1 Winner Apr 19 $3 −$1 -32%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Rio Group B Apr 14 $5 −$5 -99%
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-04-14? Apr 14 $9 −$4 -47%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
sports 99% −$20
other 1% −$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality - Map 2 Winner BUY BetBoom Team 17¢ $19 30m
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality - Map 2 Winner BUY BetBoom Team 24¢ $44 32m
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z - Map 1 Winner SELL Aurora Gaming 80¢ $2 1h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z - Map 1 Winner SELL Aurora Gaming 67¢ $119 1h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z - Map 1 Winner BUY Aurora Gaming 65¢ $120 1h
Counter-Strike: ex-RUBY vs INOX Division - Map 1 Winner BUY ex-RUBY 15¢ $30 2h
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte - Map 1 Winner SELL Monte 100¢ $358 3h
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner BUY MOUZ 28¢ $53 4h
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs Leo Team - Map 2 Winner SELL Leo Team 20¢ $3 4h
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte - Map 1 Winner BUY Monte 82¢ $147 4h
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs Leo Team - Map 2 Winner BUY Leo Team 30¢ $4 4h
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte - Map 1 Winner BUY Monte 65¢ $119 4h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Spirit 41¢ $75 18h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY 9z 81¢ $70 45h
Counter-Strike: Washed vs STATE - Map 2 Winner BUY Washed 46¢ $20 45h
Counter-Strike: Washed vs STATE - Map 2 Winner BUY Washed 50¢ $54 45h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag BUY Aurora Gaming 19¢ $4 46h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag BUY Aurora Gaming 19¢ $20 46h
Counter-Strike: Eternal Fire Academy vs WRAITH PCIFIC (BO3) - TESFED L BUY Eternal Fire Academy 53¢ $57 46h
Counter-Strike: Eternal Fire Academy vs WRAITH PCIFIC (BO3) - TESFED L BUY Eternal Fire Academy 51¢ $56 46h
Counter-Strike: Ursa vs Leo Team - Map 1 Winner BUY Leo Team 42¢ $51 47h
Counter-Strike: Clutchain vs ex-MANA eSports (BO3) - United21 Playoffs BUY ex-MANA eSports 28¢ $21 2d
Counter-Strike: MARKandLARRY vs Abyssal - Map 1 Winner BUY MARKandLARRY 11¢ $4 2d
Counter-Strike: MARKandLARRY vs Abyssal - Map 1 Winner BUY MARKandLARRY 13¢ $10 2d
Counter-Strike: MARKandLARRY vs Abyssal - Map 1 Winner BUY MARKandLARRY 20¢ $3 2d
Counter-Strike: Bebop vs Oxuji Esports (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Gr BUY Bebop 82¢ $20 3d
Counter-Strike: Bebop vs Oxuji Esports (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Gr BUY Bebop 77¢ $20 3d
Counter-Strike: Bebop vs Oxuji Esports - Map 2 Winner BUY Bebop 51¢ $40 3d
Counter-Strike: UNiTY esports vs ex-MANA eSports (BO3) - United21 Play BUY UNiTY esports 22¢ $10 3d
Counter-Strike: UNiTY esports vs ex-MANA eSports (BO3) - United21 Play BUY UNiTY esports 44¢ $37 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +41%
net ROI/market (all)-17.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 30 +6.8% -3.4% 53% 50% -4.6%
≤30d 38 -3.0% -12.2% 47% 45% -8.5%
≤90d 41 -8.8% -17.5% 44% 41% -9.0%
all 41 -8.8% -17.5% 44% 41% -9.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover1.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -17.5% 41% -9.0%
10% -25.4% 39% -17.7%
15% -32.6% 29% -25.7%
20% -39.2% 24% -33.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $27.64 · official $27.64 (match) · 94 history records