Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T12:02:23+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
6D 0x6d3d…1491 sports 81 markets active 1h ago coverage 143d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$995 (+22%) realized +$995 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR42%break-even
Win rate44%36W / 45L
Drawdown24%max
Avg bet$56per market
Trades / day0.8pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit85%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$7
7 days+$34
14 days−$21
30 days−$22
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 74% +$948
world 15% $0
other 7% +$52
politics 4% −$7
crypto 0% −$1
culture 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +42%
net ROI/market (all)-7.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 +52.4% +37.9% 33% 22% +2.4%
≤30d 13 +21.3% +9.8% 31% 15% -15.3%
≤90d 18 +19.3% +8.0% 33% 22% +24.1%
all 81 +1.8% -7.9% 44% 42% +10.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.9% 42% +10.1%
10% -16.7% 40% -0.4%
15% -24.7% 33% -10.1%
20% -32.1% 27% -18.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 21% · top 2 37% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +37% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
6% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt +22% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -3% → late +6% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$59 vs −$26 · ×2.24 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.88 per $1 lost it wins $1.88
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

143d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$995
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses36 / 45
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions0
Markets (closed)81 / 81
History coverage143d
Avg bet$56
Trades / day0.8
Drawdown24%
Kalshi-fit85%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 81 Trades
no open positions (29 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the second round of the 2026 Colombi Jun 21 $86 −$1 -1%
Will Adriano Espaillat be the Democratic Nominee for NY-13? Jun 20 $52 −$2 -4%
Will voter turnout be 60-64% in the second round of the 2026 Colombian Jun 19 $28 −$4 -14%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $11 +$19 +178%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $7 +$23 +317%
Portugal leading at halftime? Jun 17 $13 −$1 -4%
Will Mishal Al-Ahmad Al-Jaber Al-Sabah sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July Jun 17 $45 $0 -1%
Will Steve Witkoff sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? Jun 16 $8 $0 +0%
Will Shehbaz Sharif sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? Jun 16 $11 $0 +2%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 4.5 Jun 14 $56 −$55 -99%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14 Jun 14 $17 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET May 30 $5 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET May 30 $1 −$1 -100%
Hawks vs. Pistons Mar 26 $325 +$449 +138%
Bulls vs. 76ers Mar 25 $96 −$96 -100%
Lakers vs. Pacers Mar 25 $51 −$51 -100%
US forces enter Iran by March 31? Mar 24 $609 $0 -0%
Miami Open: Jelena Ostapenko vs Jasmine Paolini Mar 24 $258 +$342 +133%
Counter-Strike: NRG vs FURIA (BO3) - BLAST Open Rotterdam Group A Mar 22 $48 −$48 -100%
Counter-Strike: NSN vs FengDa Gaming (BO3) - ESL Challenger League Asi Mar 22 $102 −$2 -2%
Miami Open: Zizou Bergs vs Tomas Etcheverry Mar 22 $88 +$112 +127%
Pelicans vs. Rockets Mar 13 $30 −$30 -100%
Knicks vs. Pacers Mar 13 $14 −$14 -100%
Will Amy Madigan win Best Supporting Actress at the 98th Academy Award Mar 13 $5 $0 -0%
Suns vs. Pacers Mar 13 $36 +$10 +28%
76ers vs. Pistons Mar 12 $11 −$11 -100%
Will Bayer 04 Leverkusen win on 2026-03-11? Mar 12 $49 +$7 +15%
Will Bayer 04 Leverkusen vs. Arsenal FC end in a draw? Mar 11 $158 −$158 -100%
Grizzlies vs. 76ers Mar 11 $50 +$31 +61%
Counter-Strike: 3DMAX vs Natus Vincere (BO3) - ESL Pro League Stage 2 Mar 11 $252 +$148 +59%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Legacy (BO3) - ESL Pro League Stage 2 Mar 10 $112 +$168 +150%
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs B8 (BO3) - ESL Pro League Stage 2 Mar 09 $100 −$100 -100%
Nuggets vs. Grizzlies Mar 09 $70 −$2 -2%
Counter-Strike: paiN vs FaZe (BO3) - ESL Pro League Stage 2 Mar 09 $70 +$97 +139%
Will Adelaide United FC win on 2026-03-06? Mar 07 $30 +$40 +133%
T20 World Cup: England vs India Mar 06 $20 +$9 +47%
Counter-Strike: FaZe vs PARIVISION (BO3) - PGL Cluj-Napoca Group Stage Feb 17 $51 −$34 -67%
T20 World Cup: Afghanistan vs UAE (Game 1) Feb 16 $12 −$12 -100%
Will Real Oviedo win on 2026-02-15? Feb 16 $50 +$17 +33%
Counter-Strike: Bebop vs home (BO3) - CCT Europe Closed Qualifier: Ser Feb 14 $51 −$2 -4%
Will Stade Rennais FC 1901 win on 2026-02-13? Feb 13 $15 −$15 -100%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-02-13? Feb 13 $13 −$13 -100%
Mavericks vs. Lakers Feb 13 $50 +$18 +35%
Pistons vs. Raptors Feb 12 $5 +$4 +82%
Rotterdam Open: Karen Khachanov vs Jesper de Jong Feb 12 $40 +$8 +19%
Hawks vs. Hornets Feb 12 $67 +$33 +49%
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-02-12? Feb 12 $26 −$26 -100%
Dallas Open: Aleksandar Kovacevic vs Reilly Opelka Feb 11 $51 −$1 -2%
Rotterdam Open: Stefanos Tsitsipas vs Arthur Rinderknech Feb 11 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Everton FC win on 2026-02-10? Feb 11 $11 +$7 +64%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the second round of the 2026 Colombi SELL No 59¢ $58 1h
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the second round of the 2026 Colombi BUY No 59¢ $59 6h
Will Adriano Espaillat be the Democratic Nominee for NY-13? SELL No 51¢ $25 32h
Will Adriano Espaillat be the Democratic Nominee for NY-13? BUY No 52¢ $26 34h
Will voter turnout be 60-64% in the second round of the 2026 Colombian SELL No 48¢ $24 45h
Will Adriano Espaillat be the Democratic Nominee for NY-13? SELL No 51¢ $25 46h
Will voter turnout be 60-64% in the second round of the 2026 Colombian BUY No 55¢ $28 2d
Will Adriano Espaillat be the Democratic Nominee for NY-13? BUY No 52¢ $26 2d
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the second round of the 2026 Colombi SELL No 54¢ $27 2d
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the second round of the 2026 Colombi BUY No 54¢ $27 2d
Portugal vs. DR Congo: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 36¢ $11 4d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 24¢ $7 4d
Portugal leading at halftime? SELL No 41¢ $12 4d
Portugal leading at halftime? BUY No 42¢ $13 4d
Will Mishal Al-Ahmad Al-Jaber Al-Sabah sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July SELL No 89¢ $44 4d
Will Mishal Al-Ahmad Al-Jaber Al-Sabah sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July BUY No 90¢ $45 4d
Will Steve Witkoff sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? SELL No 76¢ $8 5d
Will Steve Witkoff sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? BUY No 76¢ $8 5d
Will Shehbaz Sharif sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? SELL No 53¢ $11 5d
Will Shehbaz Sharif sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? BUY No 52¢ $0 5d
Will Shehbaz Sharif sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? BUY No 52¢ $0 5d
Will Shehbaz Sharif sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? BUY No 52¢ $4 5d
Will Shehbaz Sharif sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? BUY No 52¢ $7 5d
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 55¢ $56 7d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14 SELL Yes 43¢ $17 7d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14 BUY Yes 43¢ $17 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET BUY Up 94¢ $5 22d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET BUY Down 65¢ $1 22d
Hawks vs. Pistons BUY Hawks 42¢ $199 87d
Bulls vs. 76ers BUY Bulls 32¢ $96 88d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 165 history records