Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T03:58:39+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
6D 0x6d3f…a942 other 294 markets active 5h ago coverage 595d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL +$45,506 (+7%) realized +$45,506 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip
Net edge-21%after slip
Net WR51%break-even
Win rate66%193W / 101L
Whale WR80%big bets
Drawdown50%max
Avg bet$2,163per market
Trades / day2.3pace
Fees−$107est.
Kalshi-fit25%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$2,866
7 days+$604
14 days−$4,561
30 days−$9,828
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 86% +$44,232
crypto 6% +$1,023
sports 5% +$2,262
politics 1% +$1,371
tech 1% −$3,926
world 1% −$247
economics 0% −$6
finance 0% +$12
weather 0% +$12
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +51%
net ROI/market (all)-12.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 14 -9.8% -18.3% 71% 36% -8.2%
≤30d 23 -14.1% -22.3% 65% 43% -20.7%
≤90d 48 -16.5% -24.4% 60% 44% -21.4%
all 294 -3.0% -12.2% 66% 51% -3.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.3 tr/day
realistic slip~10%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -12.2% 51% -3.2%
10% ← realistic here -20.6% 28% -12.4%
15% -28.3% 15% -20.9%
20% -35.3% 10% -28.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 11% · top 2 18% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -13% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
21% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt +7% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 80% (≥$2,845) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -1% → late -5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.9 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$793 vs −$1,072 · ×0.74 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.41 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

595d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$45,506
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)66%
Wins / losses193 / 101
Whale WR (big bets)80%
Est. fees paid−$107
Open positions0
Markets (closed)294 / 294
History coverage595d
Avg bet$2,163
Trades / day2.3
Drawdown50%
Kalshi-fit25%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 294 Trades
no open positions (1 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Exact Score: Côte d'Ivoire 2 - 1 Ecuador? Jun 15 $6,360 +$325 +5%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $5,912 +$432 +7%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 13.5 Total Corners Jun 14 $5,102 +$829 +16%
Exact Score: Haiti 1 - 3 Scotland? Jun 14 $4,789 +$321 +7%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 5.5 Jun 14 $4,479 +$319 +7%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 1.5 Jun 13 $3,284 +$1,192 +36%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 1.5 Jun 13 $1,528 −$551 -36%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 0.5 Jun 13 $1,380 +$149 +11%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 0.5 Jun 12 $1,260 +$119 +10%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 12 $1,488 −$1,488 -100%
Will Mexico vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 12 $1,006 +$244 +24%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 11 $1,021 −$1,000 -98%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 8 to June 10, 2026? Jun 11 $1,153 +$879 +76%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 1 to June 3, 2026? Jun 09 $1,164 −$1,164 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 05 $1,166 +$323 +28%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? Jun 03 $643 −$643 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? Jun 02 $5,488 −$4,846 -88%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? May 29 $4,911 +$582 +12%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from May 25 to May 27, 2026? May 27 $2,205 +$378 +17%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? May 27 $9,510 −$9,510 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? May 26 $2,335 −$134 -6%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? May 22 $7,378 +$2,148 +29%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026? May 18 $6,103 +$1,271 +21%
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from May 8 to May 15, 2026? May 14 $4,092 +$2,011 +49%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from May 5 to May 12, 2026? May 12 $2,920 +$1,169 +40%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from May 1 to May 8, 2026? May 09 $2,346 +$578 +25%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from April 23 to April 25, 2026? Apr 25 $1,345 −$1,319 -98%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from April 17 to April 24, 2026? Apr 24 $1,210 +$135 +11%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from April 2 to April 4, 2026? Apr 03 $912 −$813 -89%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from April 2 to April 4, 2026? Apr 03 $1,236 −$156 -13%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from March 27 to April 3, 2026? Apr 03 $1,653 −$200 -12%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from March 27 to April 3, 2026? Apr 03 $1,574 +$79 +5%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from March 30 to April 1, 2026? Apr 01 $5,027 −$5,021 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from March 24 to March 31, 2026? Mar 31 $742 +$326 +44%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from March 24 to March 31, 2026? Mar 31 $2,200 +$1,759 +80%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from March 24 to March 31, 2026? Mar 31 $150 −$150 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from March 28 to March 30, 2026? Mar 30 $3,127 +$1,971 +63%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from March 28 to March 30, 2026? Mar 30 $2,006 −$2,006 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from March 26 to March 28, 2026? Mar 28 $3,763 +$266 +7%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from March 26 to March 28, 2026? Mar 28 $2,402 −$2,402 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from March 20 to March 27, 2026? Mar 27 $3,973 +$1,290 +32%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from March 23 to March 25, 2026? Mar 25 $3,656 +$317 +9%
Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from March 17 to March 24, 2026? Mar 24 $2,545 +$1,111 +44%
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from March 21 to March 23, 2026? Mar 23 $1,145 +$233 +20%
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from March 19 to March 21, 2026? Mar 21 $1,282 −$1,282 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from March 13 to March 20, 2026? Mar 20 $1,145 +$136 +12%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from March 16 to March 18, 2026? Mar 18 $2,307 −$2,196 -95%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from March 10 to March 17, 2026? Mar 17 $3,847 −$3,847 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from March 14 to March 16, 2026? Mar 16 $2,792 +$1,055 +38%
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from March 9 to March 11, 2026? Mar 14 $2,308 −$2,308 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Exact Score: Côte d'Ivoire 2 - 1 Ecuador? BUY No 95¢ $6,360 4h
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 93¢ $5,912 8h
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 13.5 Total Corners BUY Under 86¢ $5,102 18h
Exact Score: Haiti 1 - 3 Scotland? BUY No 94¢ $4,789 27h
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 5.5 SELL Under 100¢ $4,798 27h
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 93¢ $4,479 29h
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 99¢ $4,476 29h
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 72¢ $3,284 31h
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 54¢ $976 31h
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 83¢ $1,528 43h
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 90¢ $1,380 2d
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 0.5 SELL Over 100¢ $1,380 2d
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 91¢ $1,260 2d
Will Mexico vs. South Africa end in a draw? BUY No 80¢ $1,006 3d
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY No 58¢ $1,021 3d
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 8 to June 10, 2026? BUY No 56¢ $1,153 5d
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? BUY No 80¢ $1,488 9d
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? BUY No 77¢ $1,166 12d
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 1 to June 3, 2026? BUY No 92¢ $1,164 13d
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? BUY No 92¢ $643 13d
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? SELL No 9¢ $420 13d
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? SELL No 11¢ $223 13d
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? BUY No 80¢ $5,488 17d
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $5,493 17d
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? BUY No 93¢ $2,593 18d
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from May 25 to May 27, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $2,584 18d
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? BUY No 84¢ $2,318 19d
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from May 25 to May 27, 2026? BUY No 84¢ $2,205 19d
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? SELL No 73¢ $2,201 19d
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? BUY No 75¢ $2,335 19d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1570 history records