Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T11:33:58+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

6D
0x6d41…6aea
crypto · 63 markets active 2h ago
0.0score
−$154 -12%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$154 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialist
Copy trade Watchlist
Net worth$62
Realized−$154
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)46%
Wins / losses28 / 33
Open positions2
Markets (closed)61 / 63
Avg bet$20
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit95%
Chart Positions 2 History 61 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Yes 48¢ 48¢ $40 $39 −$0 (-1%)
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? No 76¢ 76¢ $23 $23 +$0 (+1%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 7, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Down 7¢ 0¢ $12 $0 −$12 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 3, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Down 14¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - December 8, 10AM ET Up 37¢ 0¢ $9 $0 −$9 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 7, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Down 55¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 3, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Up 72¢ 0¢ $33 $0 −$33 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 7, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Up 43¢ 0¢ $9 $0 −$9 (-100%)
Solana Up or Down - October 27, 8AM ET Up 42¢ 0¢ $8 $0 −$8 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 3, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Up 64¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 7, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Down 49¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 2, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Down 40¢ 0¢ $11 $0 −$11 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 27, 9AM ET Up 79¢ 0¢ $22 $0 −$22 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 2, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Up 28¢ 0¢ $22 $0 −$22 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 3, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Down 69¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Solana Up or Down on September 8? Down 3¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 3, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Down 64¢ 0¢ $8 $0 −$8 (-100%)
U.S. strike on Somalia by January 31? No 27¢ 0¢ $33 $0 −$33 (-100%)
US x Iran meeting by April 15, 2026? No 12¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 10, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Down 60¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 10, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Up 57¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 2, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Up 63¢ 0¢ $22 $0 −$22 (-100%)
Solana Up or Down - October 29, 2PM ET Up 27¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 2, 2PM ET Up 73¢ 0¢ $11 $0 −$11 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 10, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Apr 10 $14 +$15 +111%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 10, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Apr 10 $10 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 10, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Apr 10 $28 −$3 -10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 10, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Apr 10 $5 +$6 +117%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 10, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Apr 10 $5 −$5 -97%
US x Iran meeting by April 15, 2026? Apr 10 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 7, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Apr 07 $32 −$9 -28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 7, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Apr 07 $3 −$3 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 7, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Apr 07 $61 −$22 -37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 7, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Apr 07 $11 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 7, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Apr 07 $12 −$12 -93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 3, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Apr 03 $49 −$30 -62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 3, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Apr 03 $5 −$5 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 3, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Apr 03 $15 −$10 -65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 3, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Apr 03 $10 +$4 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 3, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Apr 03 $37 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 3, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Apr 03 $29 +$13 +45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 3, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Apr 03 $9 +$7 +75%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 3, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Apr 03 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 3, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Apr 03 $5 +$2 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 3, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Apr 03 $8 −$8 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 2, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Apr 02 $5 +$1 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 2, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Apr 02 $27 +$3 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 2, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Apr 02 $10 +$2 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 2, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Apr 02 $20 +$5 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 2, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Apr 02 $5 +$1 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 2, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Apr 02 $10 +$8 +77%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 2, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Apr 02 $65 −$18 -28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 2, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Apr 02 $23 −$2 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 2, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Apr 02 $11 −$11 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 2, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Apr 02 $24 −$22 -92%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 2, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Apr 02 $19 +$7 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 2, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Apr 02 $11 +$7 +63%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 27, 9AM ET Jan 27 $22 −$22 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - January 26, 12PM ET Jan 26 $22 +$6 +28%
Ethereum Up or Down - January 26, 11AM ET Jan 26 $62 +$6 +9%
U.S. strike on Somalia by January 31? Jan 19 $33 −$33 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - January 13, 8AM ET Jan 13 $58 +$11 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 13, 8AM ET Jan 13 $22 +$7 +32%
Ethereum Up or Down - December 8, 10AM ET Dec 08 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 2, 2PM ET Dec 02 $11 −$11 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - December 2, 1PM ET Dec 02 $6 +$6 +104%
Ethereum Up or Down - December 2, 12PM ET Dec 02 $4 +$2 +58%
Ethereum Up or Down - December 2, 11AM ET Dec 02 $12 −$5 -43%
Solana Up or Down - October 29, 2PM ET Oct 29 $16 −$4 -25%
Solana Up or Down - October 29, 1PM ET Oct 29 $20 $0 -2%
Solana Up or Down - October 27, 8AM ET Oct 27 $8 −$8 -100%
Solana Up or Down - October 27, 7AM ET Oct 27 $7 +$1 +11%
XRP Up or Down - October 21, 11PM ET Oct 22 $15 −$5 -31%
XRP Up or Down - October 21, 10PM ET Oct 22 $7 +$8 +117%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 90% −$110
other 8% −$33
world 2% −$11
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? BUY No 76¢ $23 1h
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 48¢ $40 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 10, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $29 63d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 10, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET BUY Up 45¢ $14 63d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 10, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET BUY Up 57¢ $10 63d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 10, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $24 63d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 10, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET BUY Down 95¢ $23 63d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 10, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET SELL Up 15¢ $1 63d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 10, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $5 63d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 10, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET SELL Down 73¢ $11 63d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 10, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET BUY Down 32¢ $5 63d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 10, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET BUY Down 60¢ $5 63d
US x Iran meeting by April 15, 2026? BUY No 12¢ $10 63d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 7, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET BUY Up 43¢ $9 65d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 7, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET SELL Down 35¢ $10 65d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 7, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET BUY Down 81¢ $23 65d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 7, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $3 65d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 7, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $3 65d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 7, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $3 65d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 7, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET SELL Down 2¢ $3 65d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 7, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET BUY Down 19¢ $32 65d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 7, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET SELL Up 65¢ $32 65d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 7, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $26 65d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 7, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET BUY Down 55¢ $11 66d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 7, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET BUY Down 4¢ $7 66d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 7, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET BUY Down 65¢ $5 66d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 3, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET BUY Up 72¢ $34 69d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 3, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET SELL Up 89¢ $8 69d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 3, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET BUY Up 55¢ $5 69d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 3, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET SELL Down 84¢ $6 69d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +36%
net ROI/market (all)-28.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d no closed markets
≤90d 33 -24.4% -31.6% 45% 39% -29.4%
all 61 -20.6% -28.2% 46% 36% -22.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -28.2% 36% -22.5%
10% -35.1% 30% -29.9%
15% -41.3% 20% -36.7%
20% -47.1% 13% -42.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $62.47 · official $62.47 (match) · 193 history records