Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T00:33:23+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
6D 0x6d48…44c9 world 23 markets active 0h ago coverage 27d
TRAPdo not copy world specialistFresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real! limited sample (<25 closed)! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$317 (-5%) realized −$317 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +18% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +7% what you keep after slip
Net edge+7%after slip
Net WR43%break-even
Win rate48%11W / 12L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$291per market
Trades / day2.0pace
Kalshi-fit96%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$669
7 days−$572
14 days−$345
30 days−$271
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 93% −$279
crypto 3% +$52
other 3% −$49
finance 1% +$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)+7.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 12 +36.2% +23.2% 50% 50% -29.4%
≤30d 23 +18.4% +7.1% 48% 43% -13.2%
≤90d 23 +18.4% +7.1% 48% 43% -13.2%
all 23 +18.4% +7.1% 48% 43% -13.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +7.1% 43% -13.2%
10% -3.2% 43% -21.5%
15% -12.5% 35% -29.1%
20% -21.1% 30% -36.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 44% · top 2 61% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +18% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late +36% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$78 vs −$94 · ×0.83 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.76 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

27d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$317
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)48%
Wins / losses11 / 12
Open positions0
Markets (closed)23 / 23
History coverage27d
Avg bet$291
Trades / day2.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit96%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 23 Trades
no open positions (4 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 20 $26 −$25 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Jun 19 $26 +$45 +173%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Jun 19 $26 +$43 +166%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Jun 19 $5 +$6 +114%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 19 $5 +$4 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 19 $31 −$30 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 19 $58 −$55 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 19 $31 +$63 +202%
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 26? Jun 19 $203 −$49 -24%
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 18 $1,500 −$672 -45%
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? Jun 15 $500 −$45 -9%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 19? Jun 15 $200 +$143 +71%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by August 31, 2026? Jun 12 $270 −$75 -28%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by October 31, 2026? Jun 12 $340 −$121 -36%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? Jun 12 $610 −$40 -6%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 12 $1,540 +$379 +25%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 10 $670 −$9 -1%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 20 Jun 08 $50 +$5 +10%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? Jun 08 $150 +$88 +59%
Israel announces Lebanon ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 02 $190 −$8 -4%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $150 +$45 +30%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026? May 27 $100 +$40 +40%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 24 $2 −$2 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET BUY Up 47¢ $26 27m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET BUY Up 35¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET BUY Up 36¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET BUY Up 45¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET BUY Up 32¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET BUY Up 39¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET BUY Up 23¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET BUY Up 20¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET BUY Up 30¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET BUY Up 31¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET BUY Up 35¢ $5 1h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 26? SELL Yes 51¢ $154 4h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 26? BUY Yes 65¢ $203 21h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 16¢ $828 33h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 29¢ $1,500 2d
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? SELL Yes 63¢ $455 4d
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? BUY Yes 69¢ $500 4d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by August 31, 2026? SELL No 37¢ $195 7d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by October 31, 2026? SELL No 27¢ $219 7d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 19? BUY Yes 58¢ $200 7d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? SELL No 23¢ $238 7d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL No 55¢ $1,919 7d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by October 31, 2026? BUY No 42¢ $340 9d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL Yes 7¢ $83 9d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL Yes 7¢ $260 9d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY No 69¢ $340 9d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? SELL No 32¢ $332 9d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? BUY No 33¢ $200 11d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by August 31, 2026? BUY No 59¢ $90 11d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 76 history records