Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T17:44:57+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
6D 0x6d49…4f34 other 20 markets active 1h ago coverage 474d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$149 (-4%) realized −$205 · open +$56
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -46% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -51% what you keep after slip
Net edge-51%after slip
Net WR25%break-even
Win rate31%5W / 11L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$203per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Fees−$7est.
Kalshi-fit50%portable
Net worth$1,141now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$125
7 days+$62
14 days+$62
30 days+$146
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 50% +$78
sports 20% −$208
economics 16% −$161
crypto 13% +$84
world 1% −$51
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +25%
net ROI/market (all)-51.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 -36.5% -42.5% 30% 30% -3.9%
≤30d 11 -31.7% -38.2% 36% 36% -0.8%
≤90d 11 -31.7% -38.2% 36% 36% -0.8%
all 16 -46.3% -51.4% 31% 25% -21.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -51.4% 25% -21.1%
10% -56.1% 19% -28.6%
15% -60.3% 19% -35.5%
20% -64.2% 19% -41.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 36% · top 2 67% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +10% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
20% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -46% · $-wt -13% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -47% → late -45% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
5.0 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$130 vs −$87 · ×1.48 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.67 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

474d coverage
Net worth$1,141
Realized−$205
Unrealized+$56
Win rate (resolved)31%
Wins / losses5 / 11
Est. fees paid−$7
Open positions2
Markets (closed)16 / 20
History coverage474d
Avg bet$203
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit50%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 16 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 6¢ $1,040 $1,130 +$90 (+9%)
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? Yes 8¢ 2¢ $45 $11 −$34 (-76%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 10 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $59 −$58 -97%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $69 −$68 -98%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $52 −$51 -99%
Will Ivory Coast advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Jun 15 $65 −$53 -82%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $50 −$49 -98%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $269 +$231 +86%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $50 −$49 -98%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $150 +$200 +134%
Spread: Germany (-4.5) Jun 13 $140 −$140 -100%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $101 +$99 +97%
Will Bitcoin reach $200,000 by December 31, 2025? May 25 $516 +$84 +16%
Will the LA Clippers win the 2025 NBA Finals? Apr 09 $74 −$74 -100%
US recession in 2025? Mar 18 $451 +$34 +8%
Will Real Madrid win the UEFA Champions League? Mar 18 $200 −$200 -100%
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after March 2025 meeting? Mar 11 $195 −$195 -100%
Clippers vs. Lakers Feb 28 $25 −$25 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 8¢ $46 1h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 12¢ $59 26h
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 13¢ $69 26h
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 6¢ $365 34h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 51¢ $52 2d
Will Ivory Coast advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World SELL No 5¢ $12 2d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 AND Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? AND BUY 22¢ $102 2d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 49¢ $50 2d
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 53¢ $269 3d
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 38¢ $50 3d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? AND Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY 38¢ $51 3d
Spread: Germany (-4.5) BUY Curaçao 70¢ $36 4d
Spread: Germany (-4.5) BUY Curaçao 70¢ $0 4d
Spread: Germany (-4.5) BUY Curaçao 70¢ $2 4d
Spread: Germany (-4.5) BUY Curaçao 70¢ $4 4d
Spread: Germany (-4.5) BUY Curaçao 70¢ $94 4d
Spread: Germany (-4.5) BUY Curaçao 70¢ $4 4d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 49¢ $50 5d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY No 42¢ $150 6d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 51¢ $52 6d
Will Ivory Coast advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World BUY No 26¢ $8 15d
Will Ivory Coast advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World BUY No 28¢ $58 16d
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 5¢ $1,388 23d
Will the LA Clippers win the 2025 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 3¢ $1 433d
Will the LA Clippers win the 2025 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 3¢ $0 433d
Will the LA Clippers win the 2025 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 3¢ $2 433d
Will the LA Clippers win the 2025 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 3¢ $0 433d
Will the LA Clippers win the 2025 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 3¢ $1 433d
Will the LA Clippers win the 2025 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 3¢ $0 433d
Will the LA Clippers win the 2025 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 3¢ $0 433d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,140.97 · official $1,140.97 (match) · 136 history records