Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T12:21:03+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
6D 0x6d4a…359b other 328 markets active 2h ago coverage 567d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$35 (-6%) realized −$35 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR45%break-even
Win rate46%149W / 178L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$2per market
Trades / day0.8pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit42%portable
Net worth$35now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days−$5
30 days−$5
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 50% −$10
other 48% −$20
crypto 1% −$4
world 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +45%
net ROI/market (all)-11.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 5 -57.2% -61.3% 20% 20% -70.5%
≤90d 7 -69.4% -72.3% 14% 14% -79.8%
all 327 -1.8% -11.2% 46% 45% -15.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.2% 45% -15.5%
10% -19.7% 45% -23.6%
15% -27.4% 44% -31.0%
20% -34.6% 42% -37.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 9% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -78% too few recent
Fragile wins
1% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late -5% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×1.03 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.86 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

567d coverage
Net worth$35
Realized−$35
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)46%
Wins / losses149 / 178
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)327 / 328
History coverage567d
Avg bet$2
Trades / day0.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit42%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 327 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO5) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Team Falcons 60¢ 60¢ $36 $35 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 138 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 13 $4 −$2 -53%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Legacy - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $1 −$1 -97%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $1 +$1 +114%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -99%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 12 $2 −$2 -98%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Rio Group B Apr 14 $2 −$2 -99%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs FURIA - Map 2 Winner Apr 14 $1 −$1 -97%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Aurora Gaming - Map 2 Winner Mar 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Nottingham Forest FC vs. Fulham FC end in a draw? Mar 15 $2 +$2 +86%
Will Crystal Palace FC vs. Leeds United FC end in a draw? Mar 15 $2 +$2 +98%
Will Manchester United FC vs. Aston Villa FC end in a draw? Mar 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs Astralis (BO3) - ESL Pro League Playoff Mar 15 $10 −$2 -20%
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs Astralis - Map 2 Winner Mar 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 15, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Mar 15 $1 $0 -15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 15, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Mar 15 $1 −$1 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 15, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Mar 15 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-03-14? Mar 15 $1 +$1 +67%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Astralis (BO3) - ESL Pro League Playo Mar 15 $3 +$3 +116%
Will FK Shakhtar Donetsk win on 2026-03-15? Mar 15 $1 $0 -0%
Will Chelsea FC win on 2026-03-14? Mar 14 $1 −$1 -57%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs FUT Esports (BO3) - ESL Pro League Pl Mar 14 $3 +$2 +71%
Will Brighton & Hove Albion FC win on 2026-03-14? Mar 14 $1 +$1 +117%
Will AFC Bournemouth win on 2026-03-14? Mar 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-03-14? Mar 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Villarreal CF win on 2026-03-13? Mar 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Will FK Dynamo Kyiv win on 2026-03-13? Mar 13 $7 +$2 +22%
Will FK Shakhtar Donetsk win on 2026-03-12? Mar 13 $1 +$2 +170%
Will RC Strasbourg Alsace win on 2026-03-12? Mar 13 $2 +$2 +85%
FK Bodø/Glimt vs. Sporting CP: O/U 2.5 Mar 11 $2 +$1 +66%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-03-11? Mar 11 $2 −$2 -100%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner Jan 24 $13 −$13 -100%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - BLAST Bounty Playoffs Jan 24 $13 $0 -3%
Will CA Osasuna win on 2026-01-24? Jan 24 $3 +$10 +316%
Will Como 1907 win on 2026-01-24? Jan 24 $2 +$1 +61%
Will Brighton & Hove Albion FC win on 2026-01-19? Jan 19 $14 −$14 -100%
Will AS Roma win on 2026-01-18? Jan 19 $2 +$2 +108%
Will Olympique Lyonnais win on 2026-01-18? Jan 19 $2 +$1 +63%
Will Bologna FC 1909 win on 2026-01-18? Jan 18 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Olympique de Marseille win on 2026-01-17? Jan 17 $2 +$1 +69%
Will Real Betis Balompié win on 2026-01-17? Jan 17 $2 +$3 +141%
Will Stade Rennais FC 1901 win on 2026-01-18? Jan 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Will VfB Stuttgart win on 2026-01-18? Jan 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-01-18? Jan 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Aston Villa FC win on 2026-01-18? Jan 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Newcastle United FC win on 2026-01-18? Jan 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Sunderland AFC vs. Crystal Palace FC: Both Teams to Score Jan 17 $1 +$1 +96%
Will Juventus FC win on 2026-01-17? Jan 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Manchester United FC vs. Manchester City FC: Both Teams to Score Jan 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-01-17? Jan 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Atalanta BC win on 2026-01-16? Jan 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO5) - IEM Cologne Major Playof BUY Team Falcons 60¢ $36 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET BUY Up 57¢ $2 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET SELL Up 50¢ $2 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $2 7d
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Legacy - Map 1 Winner BUY PARIVISION 0¢ $1 7d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 46¢ $1 8d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 54¢ $1 8d
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major BUY Team Falcons 48¢ $2 8d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Rio Group B BUY Natus Vincere 55¢ $2 67d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs FURIA - Map 2 Winner BUY Natus Vincere 7¢ $1 67d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Aurora Gaming - Map 2 Winner BUY Natus Vincere 51¢ $2 97d
Will Nottingham Forest FC vs. Fulham FC end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $4 97d
Will Crystal Palace FC vs. Leeds United FC end in a draw? SELL Yes 99¢ $4 97d
Will Crystal Palace FC vs. Leeds United FC end in a draw? BUY Yes 51¢ $1 97d
Will Nottingham Forest FC vs. Fulham FC end in a draw? BUY Yes 54¢ $1 97d
Will Manchester United FC vs. Aston Villa FC end in a draw? BUY Yes 47¢ $1 97d
Will Nottingham Forest FC vs. Fulham FC end in a draw? BUY Yes 53¢ $1 97d
Will Crystal Palace FC vs. Leeds United FC end in a draw? BUY Yes 49¢ $1 97d
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs Astralis (BO3) - ESL Pro League Playoff BUY FUT Esports 51¢ $4 97d
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs Astralis - Map 2 Winner BUY FUT Esports 45¢ $1 97d
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs Astralis (BO3) - ESL Pro League Playoff SELL FUT Esports 73¢ $8 97d
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs Astralis (BO3) - ESL Pro League Playoff BUY FUT Esports 55¢ $4 98d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 15, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET SELL Up 45¢ $1 98d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 15, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $1 98d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 15, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET BUY Up 20¢ $1 98d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 15, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $1 98d
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs Astralis (BO3) - ESL Pro League Playoff BUY FUT Esports 55¢ $2 98d
Will FK Shakhtar Donetsk win on 2026-03-15? SELL Yes 67¢ $1 98d
Will FK Shakhtar Donetsk win on 2026-03-15? BUY Yes 67¢ $1 98d
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Astralis (BO3) - ESL Pro League Playo BUY Aurora Gaming 36¢ $1 98d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $35.23 · official $35.23 (match) · 541 history records