Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T20:16:14+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
6D 0x6d4b…62ec world 41 markets active 1h ago coverage 535d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit from just two bets (not replicable)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$8 (+0%) realized +$8 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -6% what you keep after slip
Net edge-6%after slip
Net WR5%break-even
Win rate40%16W / 24L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$53per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit76%portable
Net worth$39now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days+$3
14 days+$1
30 days−$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 39% −$3
politics 32% +$2
other 16% +$13
tech 12% +$13
sports 1% −$18
economics 0% $0
weather 0% $0
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +5%
net ROI/market (all)-5.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 +1.0% -8.6% 50% 0% -8.7%
≤30d 22 -0.0% -9.5% 32% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 29 -0.0% -9.5% 31% 0% -9.0%
all 40 +4.0% -5.9% 40% 5% -9.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -5.9% 5% -9.2%
10% -14.9% 5% -17.9%
15% -23.1% 5% -25.8%
20% -30.7% 5% -33.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 42% · top 2 75% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
88% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +4% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +8% → late +0% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$3 · ×0.75 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.33 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

535d coverage
Net worth$39
Realized+$8
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)40%
Wins / losses16 / 24
Open positions1
Markets (closed)40 / 41
History coverage535d
Avg bet$53
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit76%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 40 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will China invade Taiwan by September 30, 2026? No 98¢ 98¢ $39 $39 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Gustavo Petro be the next leader out before 2027? Jun 24 $35 $0 +1%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 24 $38 $0 +0%
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 23 $75 $0 +0%
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? Jun 23 $39 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 23 $35 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 23 $35 $0 +1%
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 19 $5 $0 +0%
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 19 $14 +$1 +6%
Cuban regime falls in 2026? Jun 18 $34 $0 +0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 18 $65 +$2 +3%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 17 $32 $0 +0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 16 $52 $0 +0%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 15 $30 −$2 -5%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 13 $35 −$2 -5%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 12 $34 $0 +1%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 12 $38 $0 +0%
Netanyahu out by June 30? Jun 12 $1 $0 +0%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? Jun 11 $35 $0 +0%
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 10 $45 $0 -1%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026? Jun 10 $4 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? Jun 09 $9 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by December 31? Jun 09 $33 $0 -1%
Will France win Eurovision 2026? Apr 27 $153 $0 +0%
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? Apr 23 $253 +$13 +5%
Will Ro Khanna win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 11 $467 $0 -0%
Will Jon Stewart win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 10 $264 $0 +0%
Will US withdraw from NATO by April 30? Apr 10 $4 $0 -6%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 10 $7 $0 +0%
Will James Talarico win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 10 $218 $0 +0%
Will the Denver Broncos win Super Bowl 2026? Dec 16 $2 $0 -8%
Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Jun 27 $6 $0 +4%
Will valid votes be between 36 million and 38 million in South Korean Jun 05 $2 $0 +1%
Will Călin Georgescu win the Romanian presidential election? May 20 $2 $0 +1%
Will the New Jersey Devils win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Mar 20 $8 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in NYC be 41°F or below on February 24? Mar 03 $5 $0 +0%
Will 'Superman' have the best domestic opening weekend in 2025? Feb 23 $3 $0 +0%
Trump bans China from buying US farmland? Feb 23 $4 −$1 -20%
Will Trump say "USAID" 3+ times during his Thursday press conference? Feb 22 $3 +$3 +113%
Lakers vs. Mavericks Jan 08 $18 −$18 -100%
Will Fulham win on 2025-01-05? Jan 07 $6 +$10 +170%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will China invade Taiwan by September 30, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $39 1h
Will Gustavo Petro be the next leader out before 2027? SELL No 91¢ $35 10h
Will Gustavo Petro be the next leader out before 2027? BUY No 90¢ $35 12h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL No 98¢ $38 12h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 98¢ $38 15h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 92¢ $39 21h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 92¢ $39 22h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? SELL No 86¢ $39 26h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? BUY No 86¢ $39 28h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 90¢ $4 39h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 90¢ $28 39h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 90¢ $3 39h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 90¢ $4 41h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 90¢ $31 41h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $17 43h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $17 44h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $21 47h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $13 47h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 13¢ $5 5d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 13¢ $5 5d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 19¢ $6 5d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 19¢ $2 5d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 19¢ $7 5d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 18¢ $14 5d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 83¢ $34 6d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY No 83¢ $34 6d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL No 49¢ $34 6d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY No 47¢ $9 6d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY No 47¢ $24 6d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 54¢ $13 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $39.08 · official $39.08 (match) · 126 history records