Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T08:27:20+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
6D 0x6d4f…6e52 crypto 434 markets active 23h ago coverage 118d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$467 (-5%) realized −$467 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -21% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -34% what you keep after slip
Net edge-34%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate37%161W / 273L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$21per market
Trades / day11.0pace
Fees−$10est.
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$392
7 days−$392
14 days−$392
30 days−$392
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 94% −$999
sports 4% +$79
other 1% −$34
culture 0% +$34
world 0% +$26
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-28.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 108 -35.5% -41.7% 28% 21% -22.9%
≤30d 108 -35.5% -41.7% 28% 21% -22.9%
≤90d 300 -24.9% -32.0% 36% 32% -18.5%
all 434 -21.0% -28.5% 37% 33% -18.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover11.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -28.5% 33% -18.4%
10% -35.3% 30% -26.2%
15% -41.6% 24% -33.3%
20% -47.3% 18% -39.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 8% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -13% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
11% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -21% · $-wt -12% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -15% → late -27% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$14 vs −$11 · ×1.2 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.71 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

118d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$467
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)37%
Wins / losses161 / 273
Est. fees paid−$10
Open positions0
Markets (closed)434 / 434
History coverage118d
Avg bet$21
Trades / day11.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 434 Trades
no open positions (116 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET Jun 25 $28 −$26 -96%
Counter-Strike: Infinite vs FOKUS (BO3) - Super DraculaN Group B Jun 25 $26 +$2 +7%
Counter-Strike: Sashi Esport vs AM Gaming (BO3) - Super DraculaN Group Jun 25 $44 −$18 -42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 25 $21 −$20 -96%
XRP Up or Down - June 25, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 25 $10 +$5 +49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 25 $7 +$4 +51%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 25 $20 −$19 -96%
Solana Up or Down - June 25, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 25 $21 +$7 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 25 $23 −$12 -52%
Counter-Strike: Team Novaq vs Rune Eaters (BO3) - LG UltraGear Tournam Jun 25 $120 −$27 -23%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 25 $10 −$10 -100%
XRP Up or Down - June 25, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 25 $50 +$63 +124%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 25 $30 +$2 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 25 $31 +$19 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 25 $19 −$15 -80%
Solana Up or Down - June 25, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 25 $16 −$5 -32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 25 $3 −$3 -96%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 25? Jun 25 $4 −$1 -29%
XRP Up or Down - June 25, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 25 $29 −$28 -96%
Solana Up or Down - June 25, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET Jun 25 $10 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 25 $8 −$8 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET Jun 25 $44 +$4 +9%
XRP Up or Down - June 25, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 25 $11 −$10 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 25 $50 +$5 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 25 $34 −$7 -20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 25 $49 −$24 -50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET Jun 25 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Jun 25 $21 −$10 -45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Jun 25 $41 +$13 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 25 $31 −$8 -26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 25 $73 +$2 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Jun 25 $52 −$21 -40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Jun 25 $62 +$17 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 25 $21 −$10 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET Jun 25 $19 +$53 +280%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Jun 25 $11 −$10 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET Jun 25 $104 +$3 +3%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET Jun 25 $4 −$4 -91%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET Jun 25 $44 −$42 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET Jun 25 $10 −$10 -95%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET Jun 25 $47 −$45 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET Jun 25 $1 −$1 -94%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET Jun 25 $10 −$10 -96%
Solana Up or Down - June 25, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Jun 25 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET Jun 25 $15 +$6 +41%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 25 $26 −$25 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 25 $25 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Jun 25 $21 −$20 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET Jun 25 $37 −$26 -72%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET Jun 25 $13 +$12 +98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET BUY Down 37¢ $28 22h
Counter-Strike: Infinite vs FOKUS (BO3) - Super DraculaN Group B SELL Infinite 47¢ $28 22h
Counter-Strike: Infinite vs FOKUS (BO3) - Super DraculaN Group B BUY Infinite 43¢ $26 22h
Counter-Strike: Sashi Esport vs AM Gaming (BO3) - Super DraculaN Group SELL AM Gaming 23¢ $26 22h
Counter-Strike: Sashi Esport vs AM Gaming (BO3) - Super DraculaN Group BUY AM Gaming 37¢ $44 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET BUY Up 11¢ $5 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET BUY Up 44¢ $16 23h
XRP Up or Down - June 25, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET SELL Up 54¢ $16 23h
XRP Up or Down - June 25, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET BUY Up 33¢ $10 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET SELL Down 63¢ $11 23h
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET BUY Up 44¢ $20 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET BUY Down 39¢ $7 23h
Solana Up or Down - June 25, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET SELL Up 60¢ $28 23h
Solana Up or Down - June 25, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET BUY Up 42¢ $21 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET BUY Up 32¢ $13 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET SELL Down 64¢ $22 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET BUY Down 29¢ $10 23h
Counter-Strike: Team Novaq vs Rune Eaters (BO3) - LG UltraGear Tournam BUY Rune Eaters 1¢ $1 23h
Counter-Strike: Team Novaq vs Rune Eaters (BO3) - LG UltraGear Tournam BUY Rune Eaters 15¢ $5 23h
Counter-Strike: Team Novaq vs Rune Eaters (BO3) - LG UltraGear Tournam SELL Rune Eaters 9¢ $1 23h
Counter-Strike: Team Novaq vs Rune Eaters (BO3) - LG UltraGear Tournam BUY Rune Eaters 20¢ $2 23h
Counter-Strike: Team Novaq vs Rune Eaters (BO3) - LG UltraGear Tournam SELL Rune Eaters 15¢ $8 23h
Counter-Strike: Team Novaq vs Rune Eaters (BO3) - LG UltraGear Tournam BUY Rune Eaters 49¢ $14 23h
Counter-Strike: Team Novaq vs Rune Eaters (BO3) - LG UltraGear Tournam BUY Rune Eaters 35¢ $10 23h
Counter-Strike: Team Novaq vs Rune Eaters (BO3) - LG UltraGear Tournam SELL Rune Eaters 34¢ $15 23h
Counter-Strike: Team Novaq vs Rune Eaters (BO3) - LG UltraGear Tournam BUY Rune Eaters 20¢ $9 23h
Counter-Strike: Team Novaq vs Rune Eaters (BO3) - LG UltraGear Tournam SELL Rune Eaters 18¢ $9 23h
Counter-Strike: Team Novaq vs Rune Eaters (BO3) - LG UltraGear Tournam BUY Rune Eaters 31¢ $15 23h
Counter-Strike: Team Novaq vs Rune Eaters (BO3) - LG UltraGear Tournam SELL Rune Eaters 32¢ $46 23h
Counter-Strike: Team Novaq vs Rune Eaters (BO3) - LG UltraGear Tournam BUY Rune Eaters 7¢ $10 23h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1396 history records