Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T15:26:59+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
6D 0x6d4f…80be sports 46 markets active 3h ago coverage 54d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialistFresh edge
Total PnL −$57 (-2%) realized −$54 · open −$3
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +23% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +11% what you keep after slip
Net edge+11%after slip
Net WR56%break-even
Win rate64%29W / 16L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$76per market
Trades / day1.7pace
Fees−$49est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$99
14 days−$99
30 days−$91
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 99% −$156
politics 1% +$41
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +56%
net ROI/market (all)+10.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -41.4% -47.0% 40% 20% -36.4%
≤30d 16 -13.7% -21.9% 56% 38% -20.5%
≤90d 45 +22.6% +10.9% 64% 56% -12.2%
all 45 +22.6% +10.9% 64% 56% -12.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +10.9% 56% -12.2%
10% +0.3% 53% -20.6%
15% -9.4% 51% -28.3%
20% -18.3% 49% -35.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 19% · top 2 34% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
14% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +23% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +22% → late +23% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$48 vs −$95 · ×0.51 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.93 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

54d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$54
Unrealized−$3
Win rate (resolved)64%
Wins / losses29 / 16
Est. fees paid−$49
Open positions1
Markets (closed)45 / 46
History coverage54d
Avg bet$76
Trades / day1.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 45 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
ODI Series India vs Afghanistan: India vs Afghanistan Afghanistan 2¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-97%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
T20 Series West Indies vs Sri lanka: West Indies vs Sri Lanka Jun 14 $83 −$83 -100%
ODI Series Bangladesh vs Australia: Bangladesh vs Australia Jun 14 $19 −$10 -50%
ODI Series India vs Afghanistan: India vs Afghanistan Jun 13 $35 +$1 +2%
T20 Series West Indies vs Sri lanka: West Indies vs Sri Lanka Jun 12 $95 +$18 +19%
ODI Series Bangladesh vs Australia: Bangladesh vs Australia Jun 11 $91 −$26 -28%
Indian Premier League: Royal Challengers Bengaluru vs Gujarat Titans Jun 01 $47 +$40 +85%
Indian Premier League: Gujarat Titans vs Rajasthan Royals May 29 $27 +$19 +71%
Indian Premier League: Sunrisers Hyderabad vs Rajasthan Royals May 29 $4 −$4 -100%
Indian Premier League: Royal Challengers Bengaluru vs Gujarat Titans May 27 $17 +$14 +85%
Indian Premier League: Kolkata Knight Riders vs Delhi Capitals May 24 $31 +$2 +7%
Indian Premier League: Mumbai Indians vs Rajasthan Royals May 24 $60 −$60 -100%
Indian Premier League: Lucknow Super Giants vs Punjab Kings May 23 $71 +$22 +32%
Indian Premier League: Sunrisers Hyderabad vs Royal Challengers Bengal May 23 $29 −$29 -100%
Indian Premier League: Gujarat Titans vs Chennai Super Kings - Who win May 21 $31 −$31 -100%
Indian Premier League: Kolkata Knight Riders vs Mumbai Indians May 21 $31 +$31 +100%
Indian Premier League: Chennai Super Kings vs Sunrisers Hyderabad May 19 $32 +$3 +9%
Indian Premier League: Delhi Capitals vs Rajasthan Royals May 18 $24 +$23 +93%
Indian Premier League: Punjab Kings vs Royal Challengers Bengaluru May 17 $19 +$22 +118%
Indian Premier League: Kolkata Knight Riders vs Gujarat Titans May 17 $29 +$21 +71%
Indian Premier League: Punjab Kings vs Mumbai Indians May 15 $72 −$43 -59%
Indian Premier League: Lucknow Super Giants vs Chennai Super Kings May 15 $15 +$18 +118%
Indian Premier League: Royal Challengers Bangalore vs Kolkata Knight R May 13 $40 +$29 +73%
Indian Premier League: Gujarat Titans vs Sunrisers Hyderabad May 12 $6 +$20 +324%
Indian Premier League: Punjab Kings vs Delhi Capitals May 11 $8 +$16 +206%
Indian Premier League: Chennai Super Kings vs Lucknow Super Giants May 11 $18 −$18 -100%
Indian Premier League: Rajasthan Royals vs Gujarat Titans May 10 $27 −$27 -100%
Indian Premier League: Delhi Capitals vs Kolkata Knight Riders May 08 $23 +$22 +97%
Indian Premier League: Lucknow Super Giants vs Royal Challengers Banga May 08 $199 −$199 -100%
Indian Premier League: Sunrisers Hyderabad vs Punjab Kings May 07 $158 −$158 -100%
Indian Premier League: Delhi Capitals vs Chennai Super Kings May 06 $554 −$554 -100%
Indian Premier League: Mumbai Indians vs Lucknow Super Giants May 04 $413 +$266 +64%
Will Tamilaga Vettri Kazhagam (TVK) win the most seats in the 2026 Tam May 04 $41 +$41 +101%
Indian Premier League: Gujarat Titans vs Punjab Kings May 03 $172 +$188 +109%
Indian Premier League: Sunrisers Hyderabad vs Kolkata Knight Riders May 03 $229 +$106 +46%
Indian Premier League: Chennai Super Kings vs Mumbai Indians May 02 $230 −$230 -100%
Indian Premier League: Gujarat Titans vs Royal Challengers Bengaluru May 02 $25 −$25 -100%
Indian Premier League: Rajasthan Royals vs Delhi Capitals May 01 $167 +$206 +124%
Indian Premier League: Mumbai Indians vs Sunrisers Hyderabad Apr 29 $42 +$45 +105%
Indian Premier League: Punjab Kings vs Rajasthan Royals Apr 28 $80 +$91 +114%
Indian Premier League: Delhi Capitals vs Royal Challengers Bengaluru Apr 27 $70 +$49 +70%
Indian Premier League: Lucknow Super Giants vs Kolkata Knight Riders Apr 26 $20 −$20 -98%
Indian Premier League: Chennai Super Kings vs Gujarat Titans Apr 26 $61 +$52 +86%
Indian Premier League: Delhi Capitals vs Punjab Kings Apr 25 $35 +$26 +76%
Indian Premier League: Royal Challengers Bangalore vs Gujarat Titans Apr 24 $13 +$12 +93%
Indian Premier League: Royal Challengers Bangalore vs Gujarat Titans - Apr 24 $10 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
ODI Series India vs Afghanistan: India vs Afghanistan BUY Afghanistan 2¢ $3 2h
ODI Series Bangladesh vs Australia: Bangladesh vs Australia BUY Bangladesh 1¢ $1 3d
ODI Series Bangladesh vs Australia: Bangladesh vs Australia SELL Bangladesh 21¢ $9 3d
ODI Series Bangladesh vs Australia: Bangladesh vs Australia BUY Bangladesh 41¢ $18 3d
ODI Series India vs Afghanistan: India vs Afghanistan SELL India 100¢ $32 3d
ODI Series India vs Afghanistan: India vs Afghanistan BUY India 93¢ $30 4d
ODI Series India vs Afghanistan: India vs Afghanistan SELL Afghanistan 11¢ $4 4d
T20 Series West Indies vs Sri lanka: West Indies vs Sri Lanka BUY West Indies 59¢ $83 4d
ODI Series India vs Afghanistan: India vs Afghanistan BUY Afghanistan 13¢ $5 4d
T20 Series West Indies vs Sri lanka: West Indies vs Sri Lanka SELL West Indies 100¢ $114 5d
T20 Series West Indies vs Sri lanka: West Indies vs Sri Lanka BUY West Indies 83¢ $50 5d
T20 Series West Indies vs Sri lanka: West Indies vs Sri Lanka BUY West Indies 82¢ $45 5d
ODI Series Bangladesh vs Australia: Bangladesh vs Australia BUY Bangladesh 79¢ $36 6d
ODI Series Bangladesh vs Australia: Bangladesh vs Australia SELL Australia 21¢ $19 6d
ODI Series Bangladesh vs Australia: Bangladesh vs Australia BUY Australia 57¢ $54 6d
Indian Premier League: Royal Challengers Bengaluru vs Gujarat Titans BUY Royal Challengers Bengaluru 53¢ $47 18d
Indian Premier League: Gujarat Titans vs Rajasthan Royals SELL Gujarat Titans 100¢ $47 18d
Indian Premier League: Gujarat Titans vs Rajasthan Royals BUY Gujarat Titans 57¢ $27 19d
Indian Premier League: Sunrisers Hyderabad vs Rajasthan Royals BUY Sunrisers Hyderabad 9¢ $1 20d
Indian Premier League: Sunrisers Hyderabad vs Rajasthan Royals BUY Sunrisers Hyderabad 19¢ $3 20d
Indian Premier League: Royal Challengers Bengaluru vs Gujarat Titans BUY Royal Challengers Bengaluru 53¢ $17 23d
Indian Premier League: Kolkata Knight Riders vs Delhi Capitals SELL Delhi Capitals 100¢ $17 23d
Indian Premier League: Kolkata Knight Riders vs Delhi Capitals BUY Delhi Capitals 94¢ $16 23d
Indian Premier League: Kolkata Knight Riders vs Delhi Capitals SELL Delhi Capitals 50¢ $16 23d
Indian Premier League: Kolkata Knight Riders vs Delhi Capitals BUY Delhi Capitals 44¢ $15 24d
Indian Premier League: Mumbai Indians vs Rajasthan Royals BUY Mumbai Indians 31¢ $3 24d
Indian Premier League: Mumbai Indians vs Rajasthan Royals BUY Mumbai Indians 67¢ $57 24d
Indian Premier League: Lucknow Super Giants vs Punjab Kings SELL Punjab Kings 100¢ $75 24d
Indian Premier League: Lucknow Super Giants vs Punjab Kings BUY Punjab Kings 66¢ $50 24d
Indian Premier League: Lucknow Super Giants vs Punjab Kings SELL Lucknow Super Giants 35¢ $18 24d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.08 · official $0.08 (match) · 115 history records