Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T08:20:07+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
6D 0x6d4f…0b37 crypto 17 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$166 (+31%) realized +$166 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +10% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR41%break-even
Win rate53%9W / 8L
Drawdown24%max
Avg bet$32per market
Trades / day45.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$166
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +41%
net ROI/market (all)-0.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 17 +10.5% -0.0% 53% 41% +18.3%
≤30d 17 +10.5% -0.0% 53% 41% +18.3%
≤90d 17 +10.5% -0.0% 53% 41% +18.3%
all 17 +10.5% -0.0% 53% 41% +18.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover45.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -0.0% 41% +18.3%
10% ← realistic here -9.6% 29% +7.0%
15% -18.3% 29% -3.4%
20% -26.3% 29% -12.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 51% · top 2 65% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +31% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
22% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +10% · $-wt +31% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +8% → late +13% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
2.2 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$31 vs −$14 · ×2.19 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.46 per $1 lost it wins $2.46
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$166
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)53%
Wins / losses9 / 8
Open positions0
Markets (closed)17 / 17
History coverage1d
Avg bet$32
Trades / day45.0
Drawdown24%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 17 Trades
no open positions (4 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 29 $126 +$11 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 29 $26 −$25 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 29 $26 −$25 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 29 $51 +$28 +54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 29 $53 +$142 +270%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 29 $26 +$16 +63%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 29 $25 +$5 +19%
XRP Up or Down - June 29, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 29 $26 −$25 -95%
XRP Up or Down - June 29, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 29 $70 $0 +0%
XRP Up or Down - June 29, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 29 $14 +$3 +19%
XRP Up or Down - June 29, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 29 $20 +$40 +200%
XRP Up or Down - June 29, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Jun 29 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 29 $36 −$8 -21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Jun 29 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Jun 29 $13 +$35 +266%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET Jun 29 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Jun 29 $16 −$16 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET BUY Up 92¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET BUY Up 91¢ $101 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET BUY Down 23¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET BUY Up 25¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $79 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET BUY Down 54¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET BUY Down 74¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $195 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET BUY Up 24¢ $26 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET BUY Up 27¢ $26 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $42 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET BUY Up 59¢ $26 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $30 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET BUY Up 82¢ $25 2h
XRP Up or Down - June 29, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET BUY Down 29¢ $26 2h
XRP Up or Down - June 29, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $70 2h
XRP Up or Down - June 29, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $5 2h
XRP Up or Down - June 29, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $5 2h
XRP Up or Down - June 29, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $5 2h
XRP Up or Down - June 29, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $5 2h
XRP Up or Down - June 29, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $5 2h
XRP Up or Down - June 29, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $5 2h
XRP Up or Down - June 29, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $5 2h
XRP Up or Down - June 29, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $5 2h
XRP Up or Down - June 29, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $5 2h
XRP Up or Down - June 29, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $5 2h
XRP Up or Down - June 29, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $5 2h
XRP Up or Down - June 29, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $5 2h
XRP Up or Down - June 29, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $5 2h
XRP Up or Down - June 29, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $5 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 51 history records