Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T09:49:25+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
6D 0x6d54…a7fe weather 14 markets active 0h ago coverage 57d
TRAPdo not copy weather specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$29 (-12%) realized −$29 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -46% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -52% what you keep after slip
Net edge-52%after slip
Net WR8%break-even
Win rate50%6W / 6L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$17per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$5now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 100% −$30
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +8%
net ROI/market (all)-51.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d no closed markets
≤90d 12 -46.5% -51.6% 50% 8% -27.7%
all 12 -46.5% -51.6% 50% 8% -27.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -51.6% 8% -27.7%
10% -56.3% 8% -34.6%
15% -60.5% 0% -40.9%
20% -64.4% 0% -46.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 43% · top 2 79% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -20% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
83% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -47% · $-wt -20% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -49% → late -44% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$6 · ×0.16 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.16 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

57d coverage
Net worth$5
Realized−$29
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses6 / 6
Open positions2
Markets (closed)12 / 14
History coverage57d
Avg bet$17
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 12 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 24°C on June 28? No 100¢ 100¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 25°C on June 28? No 99¢ 100¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 6 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in London be 25°C on May 21? May 22 $48 +$2 +5%
Will the highest temperature in London be 24°C on May 21? May 21 $12 −$12 -98%
Will the highest temperature in London be 23°C on May 21? May 21 $13 −$13 -97%
Will the highest temperature in London be 22°C on May 21? May 21 $1 −$1 -96%
Will the highest temperature in London be 20°C on May 20? May 21 $53 +$2 +4%
Will the highest temperature in London be 19°C on May 20? May 20 $4 +$1 +27%
Will the highest temperature in London be 21°C on May 20? May 20 $7 −$7 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on May 17? May 16 $1 −$1 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 13°C on May 7? May 06 $2 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in London be 13°C on May 7? May 05 $1 −$1 -95%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 62-63°F on Ma May 04 $1 $0 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 64-65°F on May 1? May 02 $5 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 25°C on June 28? SELL No 100¢ $35 2m
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 24°C on June 28? SELL No 100¢ $50 2m
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 25°C on June 28? BUY No 99¢ $37 1h
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 24°C on June 28? BUY No 100¢ $53 1h
Will the highest temperature in London be 24°C on May 21? BUY No 39¢ $5 37d
Will the highest temperature in London be 23°C on May 21? BUY Yes 54¢ $3 37d
Will the highest temperature in London be 24°C on May 21? BUY No 56¢ $3 37d
Will the highest temperature in London be 23°C on May 21? BUY Yes 35¢ $2 37d
Will the highest temperature in London be 23°C on May 21? BUY Yes 37¢ $2 37d
Will the highest temperature in London be 23°C on May 21? BUY Yes 40¢ $2 37d
Will the highest temperature in London be 23°C on May 21? BUY Yes 40¢ $2 37d
Will the highest temperature in London be 23°C on May 21? BUY Yes 49¢ $3 37d
Will the highest temperature in London be 22°C on May 21? BUY Yes 20¢ $1 38d
Will the highest temperature in London be 25°C on May 21? BUY No 95¢ $48 38d
Will the highest temperature in London be 24°C on May 21? BUY No 65¢ $4 38d
Will the highest temperature in London be 20°C on May 20? BUY Yes 80¢ $44 38d
Will the highest temperature in London be 19°C on May 20? BUY No 78¢ $4 39d
Will the highest temperature in London be 20°C on May 20? BUY No 60¢ $9 39d
Will the highest temperature in London be 21°C on May 20? BUY Yes 28¢ $7 39d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on May 17? BUY No 75¢ $1 43d
Will the highest temperature in London be 13°C on May 7? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 53d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 13°C on May 7? BUY No 100¢ $2 53d
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 62-63°F on Ma BUY Yes 95¢ $1 57d
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 64-65°F on May 1? BUY Yes 100¢ $5 57d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $5.00 · official $5.00 (match) · 30 history records