Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T20:28:48+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
6D 0x6d58…80b2 crypto 359 markets active 0h ago coverage 6d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (238 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$647 (-8%) realized −$636 · open −$11
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -11% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -31% what you keep after slip
Net edge-31%after slip
Net WR43%break-even
Win rate43%150W / 196L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$23per market
Trades / day238.4pace
Fees−$35est.
Kalshi-fit84%portable
Net worth$191now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 6d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 55% +$2
sports 27% −$425
other 18% −$416
world 0% −$6
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (238 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)-19.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 346 -10.8% -19.3% 43% 43% -19.7%
≤30d 346 -10.8% -19.3% 43% 43% -19.7%
≤90d 346 -10.8% -19.3% 43% 43% -19.7%
all 346 -10.8% -19.3% 43% 43% -19.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover238.4 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -19.3% 43% -19.7%
10% ← realistic here -27.0% 42% -27.4%
15% -34.1% 40% -34.4%
20% -40.5% 35% -40.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 11% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -11% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
1% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -11% · $-wt -11% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -8% → late -14% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$20 vs −$20 · ×1.02 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.78 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

6d coverage
Net worth$191
Realized−$636
Unrealized−$11
Win rate (resolved)43%
Wins / losses150 / 196
Est. fees paid−$35
Open positions11
Markets (closed)346 / 359
History coverage6d
Avg bet$23
Trades / day238.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit84%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 11 History 346 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Over 55¢ 59¢ $44 $47 +$3 (+7%)
Romelu Lukaku: 4+ shots Yes 49¢ 51¢ $34 $36 +$2 (+5%)
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) IR Iran 58¢ 64¢ $29 $32 +$3 (+9%)
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? Yes 23¢ 24¢ $20 $21 +$1 (+7%)
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Over 34¢ 32¢ $17 $16 −$1 (-4%)
Romelu Lukaku: 1+ goals Yes 45¢ 26¢ $25 $15 −$10 (-41%)
Belgium vs. IR Iran: 1st Half O/U 4.5 Total Corners Over 48¢ 52¢ $10 $10 +$1 (+8%)
Belgium vs. IR Iran: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Over 51¢ 32¢ $8 $5 −$3 (-38%)
Exact Score: Belgium 2 - 1 IR Iran? Yes 12¢ 8¢ $6 $4 −$2 (-29%)
Exact Score: Belgium 2 - 2 IR Iran? Yes 4¢ 2¢ $5 $2 −$3 (-54%)
Exact Score: Belgium 3 - 1 IR Iran? Yes 8¢ 4¢ $4 $2 −$2 (-44%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 185 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Belgium vs. IR Iran: Draw at halftime? Jun 21 $25 +$37 +145%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 21 $15 −$14 -94%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 21 $10 +$4 +39%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 21 $5 +$1 +24%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 21 $6 +$4 +65%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 21 $21 −$20 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 21 $17 +$10 +62%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 21 $10 +$7 +66%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 21 $21 −$20 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 21 $21 +$10 +49%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 21 $10 −$10 -95%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Saudi Arabia O/U 0.5 Jun 21 $19 +$6 +29%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 21 $40 −$21 -52%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 21 $10 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 21 $2 −$2 -94%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 21 $53 −$51 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 21 $10 −$10 -97%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 3.5 Jun 21 $45 −$44 -98%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 21 $47 −$46 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET Jun 21 $4 −$3 -72%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET Jun 21 $7 −$7 -96%
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 3.5 Jun 21 $10 −$10 -99%
Exact Score: Tunisia 0 - 3 Japan? Jun 21 $5 −$5 -98%
Exact Score: Ecuador 2 - 0 Curaçao? Jun 21 $22 −$22 -98%
Enner Valencia: 1+ goals Jun 21 $79 −$79 -100%
Curaçao leading at halftime? Jun 21 $2 −$2 -97%
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: Both Teams to Score Jun 21 $13 −$13 -98%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 21 $76 −$75 -98%
Exact Score: Ecuador 3 - 0 Curaçao? Jun 21 $10 −$10 -98%
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: Ecuador 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 20 $30 −$29 -98%
Spread: Ecuador (-2.5) Jun 20 $70 −$69 -98%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Germany O/U 1.5 Jun 20 $62 +$56 +91%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $24 +$76 +325%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 12.5 Total Corners Jun 20 $26 −$26 -100%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 3.5 Jun 20 $50 +$17 +33%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 20 $15 +$6 +42%
Kai Havertz: 1+ goals Jun 20 $30 −$30 -98%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Draw at halftime? Jun 20 $19 −$19 -98%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score AND Will Netherlands win o Jun 20 $51 +$84 +165%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score Jun 20 $53 +$31 +60%
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 1 Sweden? Jun 20 $9 −$9 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 20 $54 +$27 +51%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 20 $15 +$5 +31%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 20 $26 +$10 +39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 20 $26 +$16 +60%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 20 $14 −$13 -94%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 20 $52 +$25 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 20 $77 −$25 -32%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 20 $8 −$7 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 20 $5 −$5 -94%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Belgium vs. IR Iran: Draw at halftime? SELL Yes 100¢ $62 12m
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? BUY Yes 23¢ $20 54m
Belgium vs. IR Iran: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 51¢ $8 54m
Belgium vs. IR Iran: 1st Half O/U 4.5 Total Corners BUY Over 48¢ $10 1h
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 55¢ $44 1h
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 10.5 Total Corners BUY Over 34¢ $17 1h
Romelu Lukaku: 4+ shots BUY Yes 49¢ $35 1h
Exact Score: Belgium 2 - 1 IR Iran? BUY Yes 12¢ $6 1h
Exact Score: Belgium 2 - 2 IR Iran? BUY Yes 4¢ $5 1h
Exact Score: Belgium 3 - 1 IR Iran? BUY Yes 8¢ $4 1h
Romelu Lukaku: 1+ goals BUY Yes 45¢ $25 1h
Belgium vs. IR Iran: Draw at halftime? BUY Yes 40¢ $25 1h
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) BUY IR Iran 58¢ $29 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET BUY Down 6¢ $5 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET BUY Down 9¢ $5 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET BUY Down 9¢ $3 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET BUY Down 13¢ $1 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET BUY Down 18¢ $1 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET SELL Up 92¢ $14 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET BUY Up 64¢ $5 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET BUY Up 64¢ $5 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET SELL Up 87¢ $6 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET BUY Up 68¢ $5 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET SELL Up 90¢ $4 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET SELL Up 90¢ $2 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET SELL Up 90¢ $4 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET BUY Up 53¢ $6 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $21 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET SELL Down 85¢ $2 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET SELL Down 85¢ $9 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $190.98 · official $197.21 · 1519 history records