Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T16:11:32+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
6D 0x6d58…8f85 sports 6 markets active 2h ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real! high turnover
Total PnL −$26 (-6%) realized −$4 · open −$22
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +19% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -1% what you keep after slip
Net edge-1%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate50%2W / 2L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$70per market
Trades / day8.7pace
Fees−$6est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$172now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 100% −$50
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)+7.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 +18.6% +7.3% 50% 50% -21.0%
≤30d 4 +18.6% +7.3% 50% 50% -21.0%
≤90d 4 +18.6% +7.3% 50% 50% -21.0%
all 4 +18.6% +7.3% 50% 50% -21.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover8.7 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +7.3% 50% -21.0%
10% -3.0% 50% -28.6%
15% -12.4% 50% -35.5%
20% -21.0% 50% -41.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 80% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -13% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +19% · $-wt -13% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$41 vs −$55 · ×0.75 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.75 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$172
Realized−$4
Unrealized−$22
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses2 / 2
Est. fees paid−$6
Open positions2
Markets (closed)4 / 6
History coverage1d
Avg bet$70
Trades / day8.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 4 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Leviatán Esports (BO5) - VCT Masters London Playoffs Paper Rex 66¢ 72¢ $117 $127 +$10 (+8%)
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO5) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs FURIA 40¢ 24¢ $77 $45 −$32 (-41%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo Jun 20 $70 −$69 -99%
Map Handicap: TS (-1.5) vs Team Falcons (+1.5) Jun 20 $42 −$41 -98%
Map Handicap: FURIA (-1.5) vs Aurora Gaming (+1.5) Jun 20 $8 +$17 +210%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo Jun 20 $101 +$65 +64%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $172.17 · official $172.17 (match) · 9 history records