Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T07:45:46+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
6D 0x6d59…319f crypto 377 markets active 1h ago coverage 78d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$97 (-4%) realized −$97 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR43%break-even
Win rate43%163W / 214L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$7per market
Trades / day6.6pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$11
7 days+$53
14 days+$40
30 days−$44
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$139
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)-8.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 82 +12.2% +1.5% 48% 48% -4.0%
≤30d 264 +3.1% -6.8% 41% 41% -12.4%
≤90d 377 +1.7% -8.0% 43% 43% -14.3%
all 377 +1.7% -8.0% 43% 43% -14.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.6 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.0% 43% -14.3%
10% -16.8% 43% -22.5%
15% -24.8% 42% -30.0%
20% -32.2% 40% -36.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 14% · top 2 23% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late +5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$8 vs −$7 · ×1.19 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.91 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

78d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$97
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)43%
Wins / losses163 / 214
Open positions0
Markets (closed)377 / 377
History coverage78d
Avg bet$7
Trades / day6.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 377 Trades
no open positions (207 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 23 $1 +$1 +101%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 23 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 23 $2 +$2 +105%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 23 $4 −$4 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 23 $1 +$2 +166%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 23 $104 −$100 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 23 $42 +$64 +152%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 23 $21 +$24 +114%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Jun 23 $10 +$16 +152%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Jun 23 $4 +$5 +124%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Jun 23 $2 +$2 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 23 $1 +$1 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 22 $1 +$1 +124%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 22 $2 −$2 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 22 $3 −$3 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 22 $208 −$200 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 22 $104 +$129 +124%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 22 $42 +$69 +166%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 22 $21 +$15 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 22 $10 +$10 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 22 $2 +$2 +101%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 22 $4 +$9 +208%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 22 $1 +$2 +159%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 22 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 22 $10 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 22 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 22 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 22 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 22 $10 +$14 +131%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 22 $21 −$20 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 22 $2 +$2 +101%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 22 $8 −$8 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Jun 22 $2 +$4 +173%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Jun 22 $4 −$4 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 22 $1 +$1 +119%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Jun 22 $1 +$2 +198%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Jun 22 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 21 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 21 $1 +$1 +119%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Jun 21 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 21 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 21 $1 +$2 +181%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 21 $2 −$2 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 21 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 21 $2 −$2 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 21 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 20 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 20 $8 +$53 +629%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 20 $1 +$1 +129%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 20 $2 −$2 -96%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET BUY Down 48¢ $2 40m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET BUY Up 48¢ $1 45m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET BUY Down 38¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET BUY Up 47¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET BUY Up 36¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET BUY Up 45¢ $104 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET BUY Down 38¢ $42 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET BUY Down 45¢ $21 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET BUY Down 38¢ $10 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET BUY Up 43¢ $4 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $2 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET BUY Up 43¢ $1 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET BUY Down 40¢ $1 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET BUY Down 40¢ $1 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET BUY Down 40¢ $1 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET BUY Down 44¢ $208 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET BUY Down 43¢ $104 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET BUY Down 36¢ $42 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET BUY Down 56¢ $21 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $10 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET BUY Down 31¢ $4 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET BUY Down 48¢ $2 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET BUY Down 37¢ $1 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET BUY Down 23¢ $1 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET BUY Down 44¢ $10 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET BUY Down 4¢ $1 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET BUY Down 17¢ $1 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET BUY Up 19¢ $1 21h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 690 history records