Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T14:10:55+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
6D 0x6d59…feef crypto 173 markets active 1h ago coverage 72d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$275 (-5%) realized −$275 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -18% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -37% what you keep after slip
Net edge-37%after slip
Net WR40%break-even
Win rate40%70W / 103L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$34per market
Trades / day21.7pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$213
7 days−$323
14 days−$345
30 days−$345
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$371
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)-25.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 135 -13.3% -21.6% 41% 41% -14.4%
≤30d 154 -13.9% -22.1% 42% 41% -14.7%
≤90d 173 -17.7% -25.5% 40% 40% -15.0%
all 173 -17.7% -25.5% 40% 40% -15.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover21.7 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -25.5% 40% -15.0%
10% ← realistic here -32.6% 38% -23.2%
15% -39.1% 32% -30.6%
20% -45.1% 25% -37.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 8% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -7% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
1% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -18% · $-wt -7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -15% → late -21% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
7.8 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$31 vs −$25 · ×1.26 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.86 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

72d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$275
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)40%
Wins / losses70 / 103
Open positions0
Markets (closed)173 / 173
History coverage72d
Avg bet$34
Trades / day21.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 173 Trades
no open positions (78 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET Jun 15 $13 −$3 -20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET Jun 15 $7 −$1 -11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET Jun 15 $47 −$45 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET Jun 15 $42 −$41 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET Jun 15 $8 +$2 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET Jun 15 $35 −$25 -71%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET Jun 15 $38 −$33 -86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET Jun 15 $52 −$50 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET Jun 15 $38 +$62 +166%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET Jun 15 $46 +$57 +124%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET Jun 15 $23 +$17 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET Jun 15 $65 +$37 +56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET Jun 15 $58 +$42 +71%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$1 -11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET Jun 14 $42 +$58 +139%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET Jun 14 $41 −$40 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET Jun 14 $34 +$30 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET Jun 14 $70 +$30 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET Jun 14 $42 −$40 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET Jun 14 $3 −$1 -22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET Jun 14 $54 +$52 +95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET Jun 14 $44 +$56 +127%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Jun 14 $53 −$51 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET Jun 14 $49 +$56 +112%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET Jun 14 $74 +$26 +35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET Jun 14 $42 +$58 +135%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET Jun 14 $9 −$1 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET Jun 14 $40 −$35 -87%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET Jun 14 $32 −$30 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET Jun 14 $9 −$8 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET Jun 14 $52 +$48 +94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET Jun 14 $45 −$44 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET Jun 14 $28 −$27 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET Jun 14 $74 +$26 +35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET Jun 14 $5 $0 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET Jun 14 $47 −$45 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET Jun 14 $18 +$82 +469%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET Jun 14 $10 −$9 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET Jun 14 $33 −$32 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET Jun 14 $71 +$29 +41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET Jun 13 $45 −$43 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET Jun 13 $67 +$33 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET Jun 13 $66 +$34 +51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET Jun 13 $60 −$58 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET Jun 13 $61 +$39 +64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET Jun 13 $191 −$13 -7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET Jun 13 $27 −$26 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET Jun 13 $66 +$34 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET Jun 13 $40 −$38 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET Jun 13 $38 −$36 -96%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET SELL Up 58¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET BUY Up 66¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET SELL Down 40¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET SELL Up 51¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET BUY Up 54¢ $6 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET SELL Down 21¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET BUY Down 25¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET SELL Up 47¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET BUY Up 47¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET BUY Up 38¢ $4 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET BUY Up 38¢ $4 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET BUY Up 38¢ $4 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET BUY Up 38¢ $4 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET BUY Up 38¢ $4 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET BUY Up 38¢ $4 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET BUY Up 43¢ $4 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET BUY Up 42¢ $4 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET BUY Up 43¢ $4 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET BUY Up 46¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET BUY Up 45¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET BUY Down 39¢ $4 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET BUY Down 39¢ $3 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET BUY Down 38¢ $4 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET BUY Down 37¢ $4 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET BUY Down 37¢ $1 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET BUY Down 38¢ $4 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET BUY Down 39¢ $4 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET BUY Down 44¢ $5 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET BUY Down 44¢ $5 5h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1638 history records