Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T22:37:25+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
6D 0x6d59…31dc sports 200 markets active 2h ago coverage 162d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$110 (+0%) realized −$441 · open +$551
Gross ROI / mkt +8% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -2% what you keep after slip
Net edge-2%after slip
Net WR55%break-even
Win rate58%101W / 74L
Whale WR80%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$187per market
Trades / day2.5pace
Fees−$217est.
Kalshi-fit68%portable
Net worth$6,389now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$159
7 days+$1,246
14 days+$1,900
30 days+$2,135
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 60% +$2,023
other 38% −$608
politics 1% +$82
culture 0% +$10
world 0% +$48
crypto 0% −$17
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +55%
net ROI/market (all)-2.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 +119.4% +98.5% 91% 91% +81.8%
≤30d 60 +32.2% +19.6% 68% 65% +2.4%
≤90d 63 +30.7% +18.3% 68% 65% +2.6%
all 175 +7.8% -2.4% 58% 55% -6.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -2.4% 55% -6.3%
10% -11.8% 50% -15.3%
15% -20.3% 41% -23.5%
20% -28.1% 33% -31.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 12% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +13% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
5% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +8% · $-wt +4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 80% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +2% → late +13% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$97 vs −$119 · ×0.81 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.11 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

162d coverage
Net worth$6,389
Realized−$441
Unrealized+$551
Win rate (resolved)58%
Wins / losses101 / 74
Whale WR (big bets)80%
Est. fees paid−$217
Open positions6
Markets (closed)175 / 200
History coverage162d
Avg bet$187
Trades / day2.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit68%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 175 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 20¢ 24¢ $1,979 $2,365 +$386 (+20%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 13¢ 18¢ $1,320 $1,805 +$485 (+37%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 14¢ 11¢ $1,391 $1,136 −$255 (-18%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 12¢ 11¢ $992 $868 −$124 (-12%)
Harry Kane: 1+ goals Yes 63¢ 100¢ $94 $150 +$55 (+59%)
Croatia vs. Ghana: O/U 2.5 Under 61¢ 64¢ $61 $64 +$4 (+6%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 18 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: Senegal (-1.5) AND Will France win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $58 +$66 +113%
Türkiye vs. United States: O/U 12.5 Total Corners Jun 26 $24 +$35 +146%
Türkiye vs. United States: Both Teams to Score Jun 26 $92 +$58 +64%
Vinícius Júnior: 1+ goals AND Spread: Morocco (-1.5) Jun 25 $112 +$322 +286%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $46 +$34 +73%
Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar: O/U 4.5 AND Switzerland vs. Canada: Jun 24 $41 +$115 +280%
Panama vs. Croatia: 2nd Half O/U 1.5 Jun 24 $12 +$8 +70%
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 1.5 AND Jordan vs. Algeria: O/U 4.5 AND Nor Jun 23 $220 +$676 +307%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $7 +$3 +46%
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 22 $432 +$120 +28%
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Jun 21 $192 −$191 -100%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 1.5 AND Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $304 +$242 +80%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 5.5 Jun 17 $276 +$124 +45%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $325 +$175 +54%
France vs. Senegal: 1st Half O/U 4.5 Total Corners Jun 16 $180 −$180 -100%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $373 +$127 +34%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $586 −$584 -100%
O/U 3.5 Rounds Jun 15 $5 +$5 +98%
Fight to Go the Distance? Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
O/U 1.5 Rounds Jun 15 $223 −$3 -1%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $216 +$184 +85%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 14 $345 +$155 +45%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score Jun 13 $390 +$409 +105%
Breel Embolo: 2+ goals Jun 13 $2 +$1 +84%
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) Jun 13 $220 −$219 -99%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 6.5 Total Corners Jun 13 $195 −$195 -100%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: Both Teams to Score Jun 12 $199 +$171 +86%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: Korea Republic O/U 0.5 Jun 12 $203 +$195 +96%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $27 +$173 +650%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-07? Jun 09 $60 +$40 +67%
Will Italy win on 2026-06-07? Jun 09 $68 +$32 +48%
Cobolli vs. Zverev: Match O/U 38.5 Jun 07 $4 −$4 -99%
Ōita Trinita vs. Montedio Yamagata: O/U 0.5 Jun 07 $257 +$89 +34%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-06? Jun 06 $1,007 +$343 +34%
Spread: Sanfrecce Hiroshima (-1.5) Jun 06 $69 +$30 +44%
FC Mito Holly Hock vs. V-Varen Nagasaki: Both Teams to Score Jun 06 $255 −$253 -99%
Kashima Antlers vs. Vissel Kōbe: O/U 0.5 Jun 06 $252 +$148 +59%
Will Republic of Ireland win on 2026-06-05? Jun 05 $95 −$94 -98%
Singapore vs. China PR: O/U 2.5 Jun 05 $215 +$185 +86%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 04 $476 −$476 -100%
Panama vs. Dominican Republic: O/U 3.5 Jun 04 $309 −$306 -99%
Karl-Anthony Towns: Rebounds O/U 11.5 Jun 04 $54 −$53 -99%
Auger-Aliassime vs. Cobolli: Match O/U 38.5 Jun 03 $176 +$176 +100%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: O/U 12.5 Jun 03 $1,185 +$300 +25%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Houston Astros Jun 03 $862 +$138 +16%
Haiti vs. New Zealand: O/U 2.5 Jun 03 $263 −$260 -99%
Croatia vs. Belgium: Draw at halftime? Jun 02 $192 −$190 -99%
Canada vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 0.5 Jun 02 $228 +$72 +31%
Roland Garros ATP: Felix Auger-Aliassime vs Alejandro Tabilo Jun 01 $1,350 +$148 +11%
Set Handicap: Berrettini (-1.5) vs Cerundolo (+1.5) Jun 01 $89 −$20 -23%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Croatia vs. Ghana: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 61¢ $62 1h
Harry Kane: 1+ goals BUY Yes 63¢ $96 1h
New Zealand vs. Belgium: O/U 4.5 AND Egypt vs. IR Iran: O/U 4.5 BUY 55¢ $100 19h
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) AND New Zealand vs. Belgium: O/U 4.5 AND Egypt BUY 30¢ $125 19h
Uruguay vs. Spain: O/U 1.5 AND Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? AND Will BUY 33¢ $100 23h
Spread: Senegal (-1.5) AND Will France win on 2026-06-26? BUY 46¢ $58 27h
Türkiye vs. United States: O/U 12.5 Total Corners SELL Under 99¢ $59 42h
Türkiye vs. United States: O/U 12.5 Total Corners BUY Under 40¢ $14 42h
Türkiye vs. United States: O/U 12.5 Total Corners BUY Under 40¢ $11 42h
Türkiye vs. United States: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 100¢ $150 44h
Türkiye vs. United States: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 61¢ $92 44h
Paraguay vs. Australia: O/U 0.5 AND Türkiye vs. United States: Türkiye BUY 26¢ $133 47h
Czechia vs. Mexico: O/U 3.5 AND Will South Africa win on 2026-06-24? BUY 67¢ $220 2d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 57¢ $46 3d
Vinícius Júnior: 1+ goals AND Spread: Morocco (-1.5) BUY 25¢ $112 3d
Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar: O/U 4.5 AND Switzerland vs. Canada: BUY 26¢ $41 3d
Colombia vs. DR Congo: Colombia O/U 5.5 Corners AND Luis Díaz: 2+ shot BUY 35¢ $124 3d
Panama vs. Croatia: 2nd Half O/U 1.5 BUY Under 58¢ $12 3d
Panama vs. Croatia: O/U 1.5 AND Spread: Portugal (-1.5) AND Spread: En BUY 27¢ $204 4d
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 12¢ $1,018 4d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 20¢ $100 4d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 14¢ $21 4d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 68¢ $7 5d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 14¢ $1,407 5d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 20¢ $1,926 5d
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 13¢ $1,354 5d
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 1.5 AND Jordan vs. Algeria: O/U 4.5 AND Nor BUY 24¢ $220 5d
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Under 78¢ $30 5d
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Under 78¢ $9 5d
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Under 78¢ $195 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $6,388.57 · official $6,350.57 (match) · 522 history records