Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T16:31:35+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
6D 0x6d5b…6d00 other 7 markets active 2h ago coverage 25d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$469 (-41%) realized −$468 · open −$1
Gross ROI / mkt -36% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -42% what you keep after slip
Net edge-42%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate50%3W / 3L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$164per market
Trades / day1.0pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit43%portable
Net worth$47now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$123
14 days−$123
30 days−$471
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 72% −$348
other 27% −$112
sports 1% −$12
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)-41.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -32.7% -39.1% 50% 50% -50.3%
≤30d 6 -35.8% -41.9% 50% 50% -48.4%
≤90d 6 -35.8% -41.9% 50% 50% -48.4%
all 6 -35.8% -41.9% 50% 50% -48.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -41.9% 50% -48.4%
10% -47.5% 17% -53.3%
15% -52.6% 17% -57.8%
20% -57.2% 17% -62.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 69% · top 2 89% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -44% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -36% · $-wt -44% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
3.6 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$30 vs −$187 · ×0.16 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.16 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

25d coverage
Net worth$47
Realized−$468
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses3 / 3
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)6 / 7
History coverage25d
Avg bet$164
Trades / day1.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit43%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 6 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-30? Yes 43¢ 42¢ $47 $47 −$1 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $141 −$139 -99%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $102 +$18 +17%
Will Colombia vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 24 $12 −$12 -98%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $20 +$10 +52%
Will Choo Kyung-ho win the 2026 Daegu mayoral election? Jun 04 $395 +$62 +16%
Will Kim Boo-kyum win the 2026 Daegu mayoral election? Jun 03 $427 −$410 -96%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-30? BUY Yes 43¢ $48 1h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 50¢ $51 3d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 53¢ $48 3d
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 85¢ $102 4d
Will Colombia vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $12 4d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 59¢ $42 5d
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 65¢ $20 5d
Will Choo Kyung-ho win the 2026 Daegu mayoral election? BUY Yes 93¢ $126 25d
Will Choo Kyung-ho win the 2026 Daegu mayoral election? BUY Yes 83¢ $268 25d
Will Kim Boo-kyum win the 2026 Daegu mayoral election? SELL Yes 10¢ $16 25d
Will Kim Boo-kyum win the 2026 Daegu mayoral election? BUY Yes 12¢ $48 25d
Will Kim Boo-kyum win the 2026 Daegu mayoral election? BUY Yes 12¢ $45 25d
Will Kim Boo-kyum win the 2026 Daegu mayoral election? BUY Yes 12¢ $3 25d
Will Kim Boo-kyum win the 2026 Daegu mayoral election? BUY Yes 13¢ $52 25d
Will Kim Boo-kyum win the 2026 Daegu mayoral election? BUY Yes 14¢ $28 25d
Will Kim Boo-kyum win the 2026 Daegu mayoral election? BUY Yes 25¢ $32 25d
Will Kim Boo-kyum win the 2026 Daegu mayoral election? BUY Yes 25¢ $4 25d
Will Kim Boo-kyum win the 2026 Daegu mayoral election? BUY Yes 25¢ $8 25d
Will Kim Boo-kyum win the 2026 Daegu mayoral election? BUY Yes 25¢ $6 25d
Will Kim Boo-kyum win the 2026 Daegu mayoral election? BUY Yes 27¢ $2 25d
Will Kim Boo-kyum win the 2026 Daegu mayoral election? BUY Yes 28¢ $56 25d
Will Kim Boo-kyum win the 2026 Daegu mayoral election? BUY Yes 27¢ $81 25d
Will Kim Boo-kyum win the 2026 Daegu mayoral election? BUY Yes 27¢ $27 25d
Will Kim Boo-kyum win the 2026 Daegu mayoral election? BUY Yes 29¢ $28 25d
Will Kim Boo-kyum win the 2026 Daegu mayoral election? BUY Yes 29¢ $4 25d
Will Kim Boo-kyum win the 2026 Daegu mayoral election? BUY Yes 29¢ $3 25d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $46.75 · official $46.75 (match) · 30 history records