Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T18:23:22+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
6D 0x6d68…bcc2 crypto 23 markets active 1h ago coverage 6d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$781 (-39%) realized −$781 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -44% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -51% what you keep after slip
Net edge-51%after slip
Net WR18%break-even
Win rate18%3W / 14L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$87per market
Trades / day5.4pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit83%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 6d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 74% −$822
other 21% +$429
sports 6% −$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +18%
net ROI/market (all)-48.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 17 -43.5% -48.9% 18% 18% -33.5%
≤30d 17 -43.5% -48.9% 18% 18% -33.5%
≤90d 17 -43.5% -48.9% 18% 18% -33.5%
all 17 -43.5% -48.9% 18% 18% -33.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.4 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -48.9% 18% -33.5%
10% -53.8% 18% -39.9%
15% -58.2% 12% -45.7%
20% -62.3% 12% -51.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 52% · top 2 90% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -27% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -44% · $-wt -27% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -25% → late -60% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$234 vs −$78 · ×2.98 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.64 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

6d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$781
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)18%
Wins / losses3 / 14
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions0
Markets (closed)17 / 23
History coverage6d
Avg bet$87
Trades / day5.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit83%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 17 Trades
no open positions (13 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 25 $43 −$40 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 25 $239 −$225 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 25 $107 −$100 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 25 $106 −$100 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 25 $107 −$100 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 25 $106 −$100 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 25 $105 +$271 +258%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 25 $53 −$50 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 25 $25 −$23 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 25 $207 −$200 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 25 $105 −$100 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 25 $26 −$25 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Jun 25 $27 −$25 -94%
Atlanta Braves vs. San Diego Padres Jun 25 $4 −$4 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Jun 25 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? AND Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? AND Jun 25 $98 +$362 +368%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? AND Will Brazil win on 2026-06-1 Jun 20 $195 +$67 +35%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Japan vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 AND Japan vs. Sweden: 1st Half O/U 1.5 AND W BUY 23¢ $9 40m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET BUY Down 2¢ $5 44m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET BUY Down 2¢ $5 44m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET BUY Down 2¢ $5 44m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET BUY Down 5¢ $27 45m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET BUY Up 2¢ $27 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET BUY Up 10¢ $106 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET BUY Up 19¢ $106 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET BUY Down 9¢ $17 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET BUY Down 6¢ $89 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET BUY Up 8¢ $106 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET BUY Down 3¢ $78 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET BUY Down 4¢ $29 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET BUY Up 18¢ $106 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET BUY Up 27¢ $105 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET BUY Down 11¢ $27 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET BUY Down 10¢ $27 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET BUY Up 1¢ $25 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET BUY Up 47¢ $104 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET BUY Up 58¢ $103 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET BUY Up 31¢ $105 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET BUY Up 20¢ $26 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET BUY Up 14¢ $27 7h
Atlanta Braves vs. San Diego Padres BUY Atlanta Braves 4¢ $4 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET BUY Down 27¢ $5 15h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? AND Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06- BUY 31¢ $61 17h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? AND Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? AND BUY 21¢ $98 44h
Harry Kane: 1+ goals AND England to score first vs. Ghana? AND Will En BUY 65¢ $101 46h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? AND Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? AND BUY 43¢ $58 4d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? AND Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? AN BUY 34¢ $204 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $8.50 · 36 history records