Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T06:53:29+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
6D 0x6d6a…efc7 other 60 markets active 1h ago coverage 83d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$896 (-3%) realized −$896 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR12%break-even
Win rate20%12W / 47L
Whale WR7%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$588per market
Trades / day1.8pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit57%portable
Net worth$288now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$6
14 days−$13
30 days+$5
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 52% −$980
politics 38% −$17
economics 4% −$1
world 3% +$8
tech 1% $0
sports 1% +$85
crypto 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +12%
net ROI/market (all)-5.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 24 +1.2% -8.4% 17% 8% -9.5%
≤90d 59 +4.6% -5.3% 20% 12% -11.9%
all 59 +4.6% -5.3% 20% 12% -11.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.8 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -5.3% 12% -11.9%
10% -14.4% 12% -20.3%
15% -22.7% 10% -28.0%
20% -30.2% 7% -35.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 22% · top 2 42% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
42% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +5% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 7% (≥$792) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +11% → late -1% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$12 vs −$23 · ×0.5 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.13 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

83d coverage
Net worth$288
Realized−$896
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)20%
Wins / losses12 / 47
Whale WR (big bets)7%
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions1
Markets (closed)59 / 60
History coverage83d
Avg bet$588
Trades / day1.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit57%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 59 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? No 99¢ 99¢ $288 $288 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 18 $360 −$1 -0%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 14 $714 −$1 -0%
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 12 $1,518 −$2 -0%
Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 12 $765 −$1 -0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $685 −$1 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Angels win the 2026 World Series? Jun 11 $739 −$1 -0%
Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 07 $1,430 −$2 -0%
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 06 $919 −$1 -0%
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 05 $711 −$1 -0%
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 05 $750 −$1 -0%
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 04 $946 −$1 -0%
Will John Fetterman win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 04 $516 −$1 -0%
Will XRP dip to $1.00 in May? Jun 04 $61 $0 +0%
Will Meta have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? Jun 04 $343 $0 +0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 31 $654 −$1 -0%
Will Alpine be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 29 $394 −$1 -0%
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 29 $601 −$1 -0%
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? May 26 $541 −$1 -0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 26 $1,295 −$1 -0%
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 25 $504 −$1 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 25 $453 −$1 -0%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 25 $62 +$28 +46%
San Francisco Giants vs. Arizona Diamondbacks May 20 $35 −$35 -100%
Baltimore Orioles vs. Tampa Bay Rays May 20 $35 +$30 +86%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-05-02? May 08 $951 −$951 -100%
Will South Africa win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 01 $921 −$1 -0%
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Apr 30 $816 −$1 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 29 $630 −$1 -0%
Raptors vs. Cavaliers Apr 29 $74 +$23 +31%
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 28 $544 −$1 -0%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 17 $661 −$1 -0%
Will Katie Britt win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 16 $871 −$1 -0%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-04-15? Apr 16 $2 +$3 +172%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 15 $551 −$1 -0%
Will Roy Cooper win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 14 $1,966 −$3 -0%
Genius FDV above $1B one day after launch? Apr 13 $70 −$4 -6%
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 11 $831 −$1 -0%
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 10 $842 −$1 -0%
Blackhawks vs. Sharks Apr 09 $33 +$19 +59%
Cavaliers vs. Grizzlies Apr 09 $51 +$5 +10%
Will Racing Bulls be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Apr 06 $712 −$1 -0%
Will Hong Ihk-pyo win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 06 $733 −$1 -0%
Will Albania win Eurovision 2026? Apr 06 $756 −$1 -0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? Apr 04 $792 +$8 +1%
Blackhawks vs. Oilers Apr 03 $34 +$16 +47%
US forces enter Iran by April 30? Apr 03 $264 $0 -0%
Will Carlos Roberto Massa Júnior win the 2026 Brazilian presidential e Apr 02 $678 −$1 -0%
Wild vs. Bruins Apr 02 $7 −$7 -100%
Will Solana reach $120 in March? Apr 02 $12 $0 +0%
Netanyahu out by June 30? Mar 31 $72 −$8 -11%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $288 1h
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $360 1h
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $360 5h
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $713 3d
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $714 4d
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $735 5d
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $736 5d
Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $764 5d
Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $765 6d
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $684 6d
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $685 6d
Will the Los Angeles Angels win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $737 6d
Will the Los Angeles Angels win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $739 7d
Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $720 10d
Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $721 11d
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $918 11d
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $919 11d
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $710 12d
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $711 13d
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $749 13d
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $750 13d
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $945 13d
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $946 13d
Will John Fetterman win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $516 13d
Will John Fetterman win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $516 14d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $653 17d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $654 18d
Will Alpine be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 99¢ $394 20d
Will Alpine be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 99¢ $394 20d
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $601 20d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $287.81 · official $287.81 (match) · 189 history records