Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T18:14:42+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
6D 0x6d6e…213d other 16 markets active 2h ago coverage 4d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable ⚠ Small sampleP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$7,096 (-15%) realized −$7,067 · open −$29
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -36% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -50% what you keep after slip
Net edge-50%after slip
Net WR27%break-even
Win rate40%6W / 9L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$2,995per market
Trades / day6.7pace
Fees−$365est.
Kalshi-fit44%portable
Net worth$1,142now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 4d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 63% −$3,182
sports 27% −$9,204
crypto 10% +$1,449
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +27%
net ROI/market (all)-42.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 15 -35.9% -42.0% 40% 27% -30.7%
≤30d 15 -35.9% -42.0% 40% 27% -30.7%
≤90d 15 -35.9% -42.0% 40% 27% -30.7%
all 15 -35.9% -42.0% 40% 27% -30.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.7 tr/day
realistic slip~12%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -42.0% 27% -30.7%
10% ← realistic here -47.6% 27% -37.3%
15% -52.6% 7% -43.4%
20% -57.3% 0% -48.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 31% · top 2 56% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -23% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
33% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -36% · $-wt -23% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -50% → late -23% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$777 vs −$1,730 · ×0.45 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.3 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

4d coverage
Net worth$1,142
Realized−$7,067
Unrealized−$29
Win rate (resolved)40%
Wins / losses6 / 9
Est. fees paid−$365
Open positions1
Markets (closed)15 / 16
History coverage4d
Avg bet$2,995
Trades / day6.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit44%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 15 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? Yes 20¢ 20¢ $1,171 $1,142 −$29 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Spain vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? Jun 21 $4,970 −$3,796 -76%
Will Málaga CF win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $148 +$58 +40%
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? Jun 20 $1,022 −$1,000 -98%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $2,020 −$133 -7%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $4,999 +$1,449 +29%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $5,006 +$197 +4%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $609 −$600 -98%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $4,518 +$1,096 +24%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $3,368 +$1,152 +34%
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 18 $52 −$40 -77%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $1,074 −$1,022 -95%
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 18 $2,024 −$958 -47%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 17 $3,456 −$3,381 -98%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $6,049 −$4,641 -77%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $7,401 +$710 +10%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? BUY Yes 20¢ $1,199 1h
Will Spain vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? SELL Yes 2¢ $1,174 2h
Will Spain vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? BUY Yes 8¢ $4,970 2h
Will Málaga CF win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 100¢ $206 20h
Will Málaga CF win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 71¢ $148 20h
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $1,022 21h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 63¢ $1,888 22h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 66¢ $1,010 22h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 66¢ $1,010 22h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 77¢ $2,985 25h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 77¢ $2,014 25h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 100¢ $5,203 40h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 48¢ $609 41h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 96¢ $5,006 41h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 100¢ $5,614 42h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 80¢ $4,518 44h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 100¢ $4,521 44h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 83¢ $2,054 46h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 63¢ $1,314 47h
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? SELL Yes 12¢ $12 2d
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? BUY Yes 50¢ $52 2d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 4¢ $51 3d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 81¢ $1,074 3d
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? SELL Yes 16¢ $1,066 3d
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $2,024 3d
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $3,456 3d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 17¢ $1,408 3d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 48¢ $1,016 3d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 78¢ $5,033 4d
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 91¢ $7,401 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,141.80 · official $1,141.80 (match) · 34 history records