Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T05:06:32+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
6D 0x6d6f…c29e crypto 33 markets active 1h ago coverage 8d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$136 (-9%) realized −$136 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -38% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -48% what you keep after slip
Net edge-48%after slip
Net WR21%break-even
Win rate27%9W / 24L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$46per market
Trades / day11.2pace
Fees−$5est.
Kalshi-fit94%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$328
7 days−$328
14 days−$340
30 days−$340
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 42% −$233
sports 38% −$146
other 20% +$39
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +21%
net ROI/market (all)-44.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 +1.5% -8.1% 67% 33% -44.4%
≤30d 33 -38.3% -44.2% 27% 21% -33.3%
≤90d 33 -38.3% -44.2% 27% 21% -33.3%
all 33 -38.3% -44.2% 27% 21% -33.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover11.2 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -44.2% 21% -33.3%
10% -49.5% 18% -39.7%
15% -54.4% 18% -45.5%
20% -58.9% 15% -50.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 41% · top 2 69% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -26% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
22% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -38% · $-wt -26% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -45% → late -32% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.4 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$15 vs −$20 · ×0.77 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.29 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

8d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$136
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)27%
Wins / losses9 / 24
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions0
Markets (closed)33 / 33
History coverage8d
Avg bet$46
Trades / day11.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit94%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 33 Trades
no open positions (17 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 5.5 Jun 15 $425 −$202 -48%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 15 $5 +$6 +109%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $143 +$57 +40%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Jun 14 $16 +$1 +9%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Jun 14 $137 +$4 +3%
Will Bitcoin reach $67,500 in June? Jun 14 $330 −$193 -59%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-06? Jun 07 $304 +$40 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Jun 07 $3 +$4 +134%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 6, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET Jun 07 $2 −$2 -95%
XRP Up or Down - June 6, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET Jun 07 $2 −$2 -94%
Solana Up or Down - June 6, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET Jun 07 $3 −$3 -95%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 6, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET Jun 07 $2 −$2 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET Jun 07 $2 −$2 -96%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 6, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Jun 07 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Jun 07 $6 +$6 +102%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET Jun 07 $3 −$3 -95%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 6, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET Jun 07 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Jun 07 $2 −$2 -95%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 6, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Jun 07 $10 −$1 -7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Jun 07 $3 −$3 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 07 $7 −$7 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 6, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 07 $11 −$3 -30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Jun 07 $14 $0 -1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 6, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Jun 06 $9 −$4 -46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Jun 06 $4 $0 -6%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 6, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Jun 06 $6 −$4 -69%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET Jun 06 $10 −$10 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 6, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Jun 06 $9 −$9 -100%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 6, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Jun 06 $8 +$5 +64%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 6, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Jun 06 $4 −$4 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Jun 06 $6 +$15 +244%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 06 $4 −$4 -96%
Will Bitcoin reach $65,000 in June? Jun 06 $17 −$16 -96%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 86¢ $219 1h
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 5.5 SELL Under 83¢ $219 1h
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 77¢ $206 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET BUY Up 46¢ $5 3h
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 0.5 SELL Over 100¢ $200 3h
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 71¢ $143 4h
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET BUY Up 91¢ $16 5h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $137 5h
Will Bitcoin reach $67,500 in June? SELL No 29¢ $136 5h
Will Bitcoin reach $67,500 in June? BUY No 65¢ $330 8d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-06? SELL Yes 100¢ $323 8d
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 6, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET BUY Up 21¢ $2 8d
XRP Up or Down - June 6, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET BUY Up 13¢ $2 8d
Solana Up or Down - June 6, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET BUY Up 27¢ $1 8d
Solana Up or Down - June 6, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET BUY Up 26¢ $2 8d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 6, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET BUY Up 19¢ $2 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET BUY Up 33¢ $2 8d
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 6, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET BUY Up 13¢ $1 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET BUY Down 41¢ $1 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET BUY Down 41¢ $2 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET BUY Up 4¢ $1 8d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 6, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET BUY Up 8¢ $1 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET BUY Up 34¢ $2 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET BUY Down 30¢ $2 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET BUY Up 7¢ $2 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET BUY Down 30¢ $1 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET BUY Down 38¢ $1 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET BUY Down 30¢ $1 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET BUY Down 29¢ $1 8d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 6, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET BUY Down 25¢ $2 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 105 history records