Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T17:41:11+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
6D 0x6d71…82e5 crypto 87 markets active 2h ago coverage 588d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$1,639 (+1%) realized +$1,654 · open −$15
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR13%break-even
Win rate75%50W / 17L
Whale WR71%big bets
Drawdown85%max
Avg bet$1,651per market
Trades / day1.2pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit88%portable
Net worth$28,149now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$52
7 days+$52
14 days+$52
30 days+$55
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 63% +$987
politics 23% +$3
world 6% +$29
finance 5% +$148
other 3% +$18
culture 0% −$1
economics 0% $0
tech 0% −$1
sports 0% −$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +13%
net ROI/market (all)-11.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +2.4% -7.4% 100% 0% -7.4%
≤30d 8 -10.3% -18.8% 75% 0% -9.4%
≤90d 28 -5.2% -14.2% 79% 4% -6.7%
all 67 -2.2% -11.5% 75% 13% -8.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.2 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.5% 13% -8.1%
10% -20.0% 7% -16.9%
15% -27.7% 1% -24.9%
20% -34.8% 1% -32.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 52% · top 2 61% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
80% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt +2% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 71% (≥$996) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -4% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
5.1 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$54 vs −$106 · ×0.5 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.8 per $1 lost it wins $1.8
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

588d coverage
Net worth$28,149
Realized+$1,654
Unrealized−$15
Win rate (resolved)75%
Wins / losses50 / 17
Whale WR (big bets)71%
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions20
Markets (closed)67 / 87
History coverage588d
Avg bet$1,651
Trades / day1.2
Drawdown85%
Kalshi-fit88%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 20 History 67 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Bitcoin reach $200,000 by December 31, 2026? No 96¢ 98¢ $8,899 $9,142 +$243 (+3%)
Will Bitcoin reach $250,000 by December 31, 2026? No 98¢ 98¢ $4,128 $4,130 +$2 (+0%)
Will Bitcoin reach $500,000 by December 31, 2026? No 99¢ 98¢ $3,957 $3,949 −$8 (-0%)
Bitcoin all time high by December 31, 2026? No 85¢ 93¢ $1,706 $1,860 +$154 (+9%)
Will Bitcoin reach $170,000 by December 31, 2026? No 90¢ 97¢ $1,705 $1,832 +$127 (+7%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 by December 31, 2026? No 79¢ 58¢ $2,044 $1,521 −$523 (-26%)
Will Bitcoin reach $160,000 by December 31, 2026? No 95¢ 97¢ $840 $850 +$10 (+1%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $35,000 by December 31, 2026? No 84¢ 81¢ $840 $815 −$25 (-3%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 by December 31, 2026? No 45¢ 44¢ $810 $792 −$18 (-2%)
Will Bitcoin reach $190,000 by December 31, 2026? No 98¢ 98¢ $636 $639 +$3 (+1%)
Will Ethereum reach $8,000 by December 31, 2026? No 97¢ 98¢ $580 $588 +$8 (+1%)
Will Ethereum reach $7,000 by December 31, 2026? No 93¢ 97¢ $465 $486 +$21 (+4%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 by December 31, 2026? Yes 73¢ 70¢ $456 $441 −$16 (-3%)
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 by December 31, 2026? No 96¢ 96¢ $277 $277 −$0 (-0%)
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 98¢ 98¢ $197 $197 +$0 (+0%)
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 98¢ 98¢ $196 $197 +$1 (+0%)
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 97¢ 98¢ $195 $195 +$0 (+0%)
Will Ethereum reach $7,500 by December 31, 2026? No 93¢ 97¢ $93 $97 +$4 (+4%)
Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? No 93¢ 92¢ $93 $93 −$1 (-1%)
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? No 95¢ 100¢ $48 $50 +$2 (+5%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Bitcoin reach $180,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 20 $2,184 +$52 +2%
Solana all time high by June 30, 2026? Jun 02 $914 $0 +0%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 02 $10 −$10 -99%
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 02 $25,300 $0 +0%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T? May 30 $69 +$3 +5%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in May? May 29 $98 +$2 +2%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $60 in May? May 29 $97 +$3 +3%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by December 31, 2026? May 27 $79 +$4 +6%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in May? May 21 $1,494 +$3 +0%
Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair? May 09 $100 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $5,500 by December 31, 2026? May 09 $4,824 +$1,391 +29%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026? May 05 $98 −$98 -100%
Will Ethereum reach $6,000 by December 31, 2026? May 04 $1,320 +$68 +5%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? May 04 $1,650 −$23 -1%
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? May 04 $93 +$1 +1%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $70 in April? Apr 29 $1,216 +$77 +6%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $200 by end of June? Apr 28 $312 +$13 +4%
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? Apr 28 $96 $0 +0%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $50 by end of June? Apr 28 $295 +$2 +1%
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar? Apr 23 $4,749 +$8 +0%
Ethereum all time high by June 30, 2026? Apr 21 $1,437 +$138 +10%
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? Apr 12 $2,500 $0 +0%
Another US strike on Venezuela by March 31? Apr 05 $625 +$1 +0%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $70 by end of March? Apr 01 $1 $0 +0%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $60 by end of March? Apr 01 $888 +$6 +1%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $65 by end of March? Apr 01 $1,513 +$19 +1%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $75 by end of March? Apr 01 $2,337 +$24 +1%
US forces enter Iran by March 31? Mar 24 $56 −$12 -21%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on January 9? Mar 22 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Trump visit China by April 30? Mar 17 $13 +$40 +308%
Will Trump visit China by March 31? Mar 17 $258 −$57 -22%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on March Mar 17 $6 −$4 -69%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in March? Mar 17 $996 +$1 +0%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $200 by end of March? Mar 16 $711 +$3 +0%
US x Iran ceasefire by March 15? Mar 16 $94 +$6 +6%
US forces enter Iran by March 14? Mar 16 $267 +$33 +12%
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $8,500 by end of June? Mar 11 $670 +$19 +3%
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $10,000 by end of June? Mar 10 $29 +$1 +2%
Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026? Mar 10 $6,000 $0 +0%
Trump cabinet member out by December 31, 2026? Mar 05 $26 +$2 +8%
Ethereum all time high by March 31, 2026? Mar 02 $2,245 +$230 +10%
Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 by December 31, 2026? Feb 07 $1,330 −$350 -26%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $86,000 on January 3? Jan 03 $5 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin hit $150k by March 31, 2026? Dec 25 $400 +$4 +1%
Will Zohran Mamdani win by >9%? Dec 22 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Ethereum reach $4,800 in November? Dec 17 $94 +$3 +3%
Will Bitcoin reach $135,000 in November? Dec 17 $200 +$5 +2%
Xi Jinping out in 2025? Nov 26 $227 $0 +0%
Will the Government shutdown end November 12-15? Nov 25 $217 +$10 +4%
Will the government shutdown end November 10? Nov 10 $217 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Bitcoin reach $250,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $295 1h
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $278 1h
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 45¢ $841 1h
Will Bitcoin reach $180,000 by December 31, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $1,362 1h
Will Bitcoin reach $160,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $515 5d
Will Bitcoin reach $200,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $221 14d
Will Bitcoin reach $200,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $365 14d
Will Bitcoin reach $170,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $150 15d
Will Bitcoin reach $170,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $331 15d
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 69¢ $431 16d
Will Bitcoin reach $190,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $637 17d
Will Bitcoin reach $250,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $1,826 17d
Solana all time high by June 30, 2026? SELL No 99¢ $914 18d
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 60¢ $750 18d
Will Bitcoin reach $200,000 by December 31, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $1,879 18d
Will Bitcoin reach $200,000 by December 31, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $10 18d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Spurs 64¢ $10 18d
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 97¢ $195 18d
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $196 18d
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $197 18d
Will Bitcoin reach $500,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $2,247 18d
Will Bitcoin reach $200,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 97¢ $3,670 18d
Will Bitcoin reach $180,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $82 18d
Will Bitcoin reach $190,000 by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes $50 18d
Will Bitcoin reach $250,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $2,013 18d
Will Bitcoin reach $500,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $1,714 18d
Will Bitcoin reach $160,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $19 18d
Will Bitcoin reach $250,000 by December 31, 2026? SELL No 97¢ $1,384 18d
Will Bitcoin reach $200,000 by December 31, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $482 20d
Will Bitcoin reach $200,000 by December 31, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $478 20d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $28,149.06 · official $28,149.16 (match) · 867 history records