Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T02:16:20+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
6D 0x6d77…a694 weather 1104 markets active 0h ago coverage 31d ⚠
BOTnot copyable weather specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 31d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (96 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$6,372 (+18%) realized +$6,368 · open +$4
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -27% what you keep after slip
Net edge-27%after slip
Net WR29%break-even
Win rate72%803W / 316L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$33per market
Trades / day95.5pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$2,276now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 31d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 100% +$383
other 0% −$33
sports 0% +$4
crypto 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (96 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +29%
net ROI/market (all)-14.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 290 -22.3% -29.7% 56% 28% -11.5%
≤30d 1111 -5.4% -14.4% 72% 29% -9.5%
≤90d 1119 -5.3% -14.3% 72% 29% -9.5%
all 1119 -5.3% -14.3% 72% 29% -9.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover95.5 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -14.3% 29% -9.5%
10% ← realistic here -22.5% 20% -18.2%
15% -30.0% 16% -26.1%
20% -36.9% 11% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 2% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
60% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late -9% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$9 · ×0.39 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.0 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

31d coverage
Net worth$2,276
Realized+$6,368
Unrealized+$4
Win rate (resolved)72%
Wins / losses803 / 316
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions61
Markets (closed)1119 / 1104
History coverage31d ⚠
Avg bet$33
Trades / day95.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 61 History 1119 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on June 26? No 98¢ 100¢ $49 $50 +$1 (+2%)
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 25°C on June 26? No 92¢ 100¢ $46 $50 +$4 (+9%)
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on June 26? No 81¢ 100¢ $40 $50 +$9 (+23%)
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 25°C on June 26? No 89¢ 100¢ $44 $50 +$5 (+12%)
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 31°C or higher on June 26? No 98¢ 100¢ $49 $50 +$1 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 30°C on June 26? No 98¢ 100¢ $49 $50 +$1 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 28°C on June 26? No 95¢ 99¢ $48 $50 +$2 (+4%)
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 30°C on June 26? No 98¢ 99¢ $49 $50 +$0 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 30°C on June 26? No 96¢ 99¢ $48 $49 +$1 (+3%)
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 21°C on June 26? No 96¢ 99¢ $48 $49 +$1 (+3%)
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 30°C on June 26? No 98¢ 98¢ $49 $49 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 34°C on June 26? No 95¢ 98¢ $48 $49 +$1 (+3%)
Will the highest temperature in London be 38°C on June 26? No 98¢ 98¢ $49 $49 −$0 (-0%)
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 29°C on June 26? No 96¢ 97¢ $48 $49 +$0 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 29°C on June 26? No 96¢ 97¢ $48 $48 +$1 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in London be 32°C or below on June 26? No 95¢ 98¢ $47 $48 +$1 (+2%)
Will the highest temperature in London be 33°C on June 26? No 91¢ 94¢ $46 $47 +$1 (+3%)
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on June 26? No 94¢ 94¢ $47 $47 +$0 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in London be 37°C on June 26? No 93¢ 93¢ $47 $47 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 26? No 82¢ 92¢ $41 $46 +$5 (+13%)
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 29°C on June 26? No 89¢ 92¢ $44 $46 +$2 (+4%)
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on June 26? No 98¢ 92¢ $49 $46 −$3 (-6%)
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 30°C on June 26? No 80¢ 92¢ $40 $46 +$6 (+15%)
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on June 26? No 86¢ 92¢ $43 $46 +$3 (+6%)
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 25°C on June 26? No 93¢ 90¢ $47 $45 −$2 (-4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 209 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 14°C on April 25? Jun 26 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 18°C or below on April 25? Jun 26 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 64-65°F on Ma Jun 26 $8 −$8 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 22°C on May 4? Jun 26 $42 −$42 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 76-77°F on April 25? Jun 26 $0 $0 -100%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-04-29? Jun 26 $1 $0 -28%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 19°C or below on May 1? Jun 26 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on May 4? Jun 26 $42 −$42 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 21°C on May 1? Jun 26 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 20°C on May 1? Jun 26 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 26 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on May 1? Jun 26 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be 68°F or higher on May Jun 26 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 30°C or higher on May 1? Jun 26 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 60-61°F on Ma Jun 26 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 12°C or below on April 20? Jun 26 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 26°C on May 1? Jun 26 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 8°C on May 1? Jun 26 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 58-59°F on Ma Jun 26 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 9°C on May 1? Jun 26 $6 −$6 -100%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 56-57°F on Ma Jun 26 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 22°C on May 1? Jun 26 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be 77°F or below on May 19? Jun 26 $14 −$14 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on May 1? Jun 26 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 15°C on April 20? Jun 26 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 23°C on May 1? Jun 26 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 16°C on April 20? Jun 26 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 22°C or higher on April 20 Jun 26 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 19°C on April 14? Jun 26 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 28°C on May 1? Jun 26 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 10°C or below on April 25 Jun 26 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 13°C on April 25? Jun 26 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 22°C on April 25? Jun 26 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 13°C on April 20? Jun 26 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 13°C on May 1? Jun 26 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 17°C on April 25? Jun 26 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 14°C or higher on May 1? Jun 26 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on May 1? Jun 26 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on May 1? Jun 26 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 26 $0 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 26 $2 −$2 -100%
Will AFC Bournemouth win on 2026-05-19? Jun 26 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 35°C or higher on April 2 Jun 26 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 18°C on April 20? Jun 26 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 16°C on April 14? Jun 26 $12 −$12 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on May 4? Jun 26 $25 −$25 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 27°C on May 4? Jun 26 $25 −$25 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 17°C on April 20? Jun 26 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 66-67°F on Ma Jun 26 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on May 1? Jun 26 $6 −$6 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 27°C on June 26? SELL No 100¢ $50 15m
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 27°C on June 27? BUY No 60¢ $4 24m
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 27°C on June 27? BUY No 60¢ $2 24m
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 27°C on June 27? BUY No 60¢ $12 24m
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 27°C on June 27? BUY No 60¢ $12 24m
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 34°C on June 26? SELL No 75¢ $30 36m
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 23°C on June 26? SELL No 100¢ $50 38m
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 24°C on June 26? SELL No 100¢ $50 40m
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 30°C on June 26? BUY No 98¢ $49 41m
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 30°C on June 26? BUY No 98¢ $20 59m
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 30°C on June 26? BUY No 98¢ $29 59m
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 24°C on June 26? SELL No 100¢ $48 1h
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 24°C on June 26? SELL No 100¢ $2 1h
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 26°C on June 26? SELL No 100¢ $50 1h
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 33°C on June 26? BUY No 89¢ $9 1h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on June 26? BUY No 94¢ $34 2h
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 29°C on June 26? BUY No 91¢ $6 2h
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 30°C on June 26? BUY No 77¢ $3 2h
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 30°C on June 26? BUY No 77¢ $10 2h
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 25°C on June 26? BUY No 89¢ $1 2h
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 36°C on June 26? BUY No 70¢ $14 2h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on June 26? BUY No 98¢ $49 2h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on June 26? BUY No 94¢ $13 2h
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 33°C on June 26? BUY No 89¢ $8 2h
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 30°C on June 26? BUY No 98¢ $49 2h
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 30°C on June 26? BUY No 77¢ $10 2h
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 29°C on June 26? BUY No 96¢ $25 2h
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 29°C on June 26? BUY No 96¢ $23 2h
Will the highest temperature in London be 32°C or below on June 26? BUY No 96¢ $14 2h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 24°C on June 26? BUY No 97¢ $9 3h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,276.20 · official $2,276.97 (match) · 3500 history records