Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T20:09:55+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

5.0
score
6D 0x6d77…bcaf sports 14 markets active 7h ago coverage 224d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialistFading edge⚠ Small sample
! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$92,773 (+74%) realized +$92,773 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +62% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +32% what you keep after slip
Net edge+32%after slip
Net WR64%break-even
Win rate64%9W / 5L
Drawdown17%max
Avg bet$8,944per market
Trades / day1.4pace
Fees−$1,062est.
Kalshi-fit57%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$27,400
7 days+$20,156
14 days+$91,330
30 days+$91,330
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 64% +$70,700
other 32% +$29,404
crypto 3% −$4,200
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +64%
net ROI/market (all)+46.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 -33.1% -39.5% 38% 38% +13.3%
≤30d 12 +68.1% +52.1% 58% 58% +68.8%
≤90d 12 +68.1% +52.1% 58% 58% +68.8%
all 14 +62.0% +46.6% 64% 64% +59.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.4 tr/day
realistic slip~10%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +46.6% 64% +59.8%
10% ← realistic here +32.5% 57% +44.5%
15% +19.7% 50% +30.5%
20% +8.0% 43% +17.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 32% · top 2 55% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +87% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +62% · $-wt +77% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +148% → late -24% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
21.7 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$13,356 vs −$4,860 · ×2.75 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×4.95 per $1 lost it wins $4.95
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

224d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$92,773
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)64%
Wins / losses9 / 5
Est. fees paid−$1,062
Open positions0
Markets (closed)14 / 14
History coverage224d
Avg bet$8,944
Trades / day1.4
Drawdown17%
Kalshi-fit57%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 14 Trades
no open positions (5 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 21 $27,500 +$22,500 +82%
Spread: Japan (-2.5) Jun 21 $15,900 +$14,100 +89%
Spread: Germany (-3.5) Jun 20 $5,000 −$5,000 -100%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $4,200 −$4,200 -100%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $12,144 +$7,856 +65%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $4,900 −$4,900 -100%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $4,800 −$4,800 -100%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 15 $5,442 −$5,400 -99%
Spread: Germany (-5.5) Jun 14 $11,000 +$39,000 +354%
Will Logan Paul’s PSA 10 Pokémon Illustrator Sale Price be over $10 mi Jun 14 $1,235 +$1,932 +156%
AFC U23 Final: China vs. Japan Jun 14 $8,322 +$3,078 +37%
Will Logan Paul’s PSA 10 Pokémon Illustrator Sale Price be over $16 mi Jun 14 $5,086 +$27,164 +534%
Lighter market cap (FDV) >$2B one day after launch? Jan 09 $12,418 +$2,152 +17%
LoL: T1 vs KT Rolster (BO5) Nov 11 $7,268 +$2,423 +33%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: Spain (-2.5) BUY Spain 55¢ $17,543 7h
Spread: Spain (-2.5) BUY Spain 55¢ $37 7h
Spread: Spain (-2.5) BUY Spain 55¢ $18 7h
Spread: Spain (-2.5) BUY Spain 55¢ $6 7h
Spread: Spain (-2.5) BUY Spain 55¢ $55 7h
Spread: Spain (-2.5) BUY Spain 55¢ $122 7h
Spread: Spain (-2.5) BUY Spain 55¢ $24 7h
Spread: Spain (-2.5) BUY Spain 55¢ $6 7h
Spread: Spain (-2.5) BUY Spain 55¢ $37 7h
Spread: Spain (-2.5) BUY Spain 55¢ $1 7h
Spread: Spain (-2.5) BUY Spain 55¢ $1 7h
Spread: Spain (-2.5) BUY Spain 55¢ $100 7h
Spread: Spain (-2.5) BUY Spain 55¢ $123 7h
Spread: Spain (-2.5) BUY Spain 55¢ $12 7h
Spread: Spain (-2.5) BUY Spain 55¢ $9 7h
Spread: Spain (-2.5) BUY Spain 55¢ $3 7h
Spread: Spain (-2.5) BUY Spain 55¢ $6 7h
Spread: Spain (-2.5) BUY Spain 55¢ $4 7h
Spread: Spain (-2.5) BUY Spain 55¢ $17 7h
Spread: Spain (-2.5) BUY Spain 55¢ $22 7h
Spread: Spain (-2.5) BUY Spain 55¢ $2 7h
Spread: Spain (-2.5) BUY Spain 55¢ $122 7h
Spread: Spain (-2.5) BUY Spain 55¢ $3 7h
Spread: Spain (-2.5) BUY Spain 55¢ $1 7h
Spread: Spain (-2.5) BUY Spain 55¢ $84 7h
Spread: Spain (-2.5) BUY Spain 55¢ $119 7h
Spread: Spain (-2.5) BUY Spain 55¢ $130 7h
Spread: Spain (-2.5) BUY Spain 55¢ $11 7h
Spread: Spain (-2.5) BUY Spain 55¢ $5 7h
Spread: Spain (-2.5) BUY Spain 55¢ $6 7h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 330 history records