Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T06:41:20+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
6D 0x6d7c…e2e3 other 15 markets active 2h ago coverage 164d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$328 (-36%) realized −$328 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -46% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -51% what you keep after slip
Net edge-51%after slip
Net WR20%break-even
Win rate20%2W / 8L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$60per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit27%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$611
7 days+$439
14 days+$439
30 days+$439
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 93% +$329
sports 7% −$38
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +20%
net ROI/market (all)-50.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 -22.2% -29.6% 29% 29% +47.9%
≤30d 7 -22.2% -29.6% 29% 29% +47.9%
≤90d 7 -22.2% -29.6% 29% 29% +47.9%
all 10 -45.5% -50.7% 20% 20% +21.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -50.7% 20% +21.8%
10% -55.4% 20% +10.1%
15% -59.7% 20% -0.5%
20% -63.7% 20% -10.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 73% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +63% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -46% · $-wt +35% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
2.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$305 vs −$40 · ×7.63 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.91 per $1 lost it wins $1.91
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

164d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$328
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)20%
Wins / losses2 / 8
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions0
Markets (closed)10 / 15
History coverage164d
Avg bet$60
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit27%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 10 Trades
no open positions (7 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $237 +$446 +188%
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $263 +$165 +63%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $76 −$75 -98%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Draw at halftime? Jun 16 $20 −$1 -6%
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 16 $31 −$30 -98%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $66 −$64 -97%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Senegal win on 2026-01-18? Jan 18 $40 −$40 -100%
Will Algeria vs. Nigeria end in a draw? Jan 10 $7 −$7 -100%
Will Algeria win on 2026-01-10? Jan 10 $101 −$101 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 100¢ $338 1h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 93¢ $325 1h
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-22? SELL No 100¢ $409 1h
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 50¢ $19 2h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 17¢ $20 2h
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 51¢ $20 2h
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-22? BUY No 50¢ $30 2h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 19¢ $10 2h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 21¢ $2 2h
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-22? BUY No 60¢ $10 2h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 29¢ $20 2h
Fares Chaïbi: 1+ goals AND Amine Gouiri: 1+ goals AND Will Algeria win BUY 4¢ $12 2h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 29¢ $102 2h
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-22? BUY No 60¢ $202 2h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 30¢ $102 2h
Riyad Mahrez: 1+ goals AND Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? BUY 32¢ $26 3h
Amine Gouiri: 1+ goals AND Riyad Mahrez: 1+ goals AND Will Algeria win BUY 14¢ $10 3h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 36¢ $25 6d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 36¢ $51 6d
Argentina vs. Algeria: Draw at halftime? SELL Yes 40¢ $19 6d
Argentina vs. Algeria: Draw at halftime? BUY Yes 41¢ $20 6d
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? BUY Yes 23¢ $31 6d
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 13¢ $10 6d
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 13¢ $10 6d
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 13¢ $10 6d
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 13¢ $10 6d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? AND Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? AND BUY 7¢ $5 6d
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 16¢ $2 6d
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 12¢ $26 6d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? AND Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a BUY 15¢ $5 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 48 history records