Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T09:50:14+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
6D 0x6d7e…15df other 15 markets active 2h ago coverage 459d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$12 (-6%) realized −$12 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -9% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate50%7W / 7L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$14per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Kalshi-fit60%portable
Net worth$29now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days−$12
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 61% −$12
other 29% −$1
politics 6% $0
tech 4% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-17.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 6 -5.5% -14.5% 33% 0% -16.8%
≤90d 7 -4.7% -13.8% 29% 0% -16.6%
all 14 -8.7% -17.4% 50% 0% -15.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -17.4% 0% -15.5%
10% -25.3% 0% -23.6%
15% -32.5% 0% -31.0%
20% -39.1% 0% -37.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 46% · top 2 88% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -8% too few recent
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -9% · $-wt -7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -13% → late -5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$3 · ×0.04 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.06 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

459d coverage
Net worth$29
Realized−$12
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses7 / 7
Open positions1
Markets (closed)14 / 15
History coverage459d
Avg bet$14
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit60%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 14 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? No 86¢ 86¢ $29 $29 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? May 26 $19 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? May 26 $15 $0 +0%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? May 25 $27 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? May 25 $26 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? May 25 $27 −$1 -3%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 24 $37 −$11 -31%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 23 $5 $0 +0%
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win Super Bowl 2026? Dec 16 $2 $0 -0%
Will Benfica win the FIFA Club World Cup? Dec 13 $1 $0 +2%
Will DeepSeek have the top AI model on June 30? Jun 27 $9 $0 +4%
Will Ahn Cheol-soo be elected the next president of South Korea? Jun 04 $1 $0 +1%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the Eastern Conference? May 05 $2 $0 +1%
Will Trump's approval rating be between 48.0% and 48.4% on March 28? Mar 31 $12 $0 +3%
Ripple above $2.30 on March 21? Mar 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? BUY No 86¢ $29 1h
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL Yes 30¢ $6 28d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL Yes 30¢ $8 28d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL Yes 30¢ $5 28d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? BUY Yes 30¢ $6 28d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? BUY Yes 30¢ $13 28d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $15 28d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $15 28d
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? SELL No 98¢ $27 28d
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? BUY No 98¢ $27 28d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL No 95¢ $10 29d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL No 95¢ $15 29d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY No 95¢ $26 29d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL No 37¢ $26 29d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY No 38¢ $27 29d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 34¢ $26 29d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 49¢ $37 29d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? SELL No 97¢ $5 30d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? BUY No 97¢ $5 30d
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win Super Bowl 2026? SELL No 98¢ $1 188d
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win Super Bowl 2026? SELL No 98¢ $1 343d
Will DeepSeek have the top AI model on June 30? SELL No 100¢ $9 360d
Will Benfica win the FIFA Club World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $1 361d
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win Super Bowl 2026? BUY No 98¢ $2 399d
Will Ahn Cheol-soo be elected the next president of South Korea? BUY No 99¢ $1 420d
Will DeepSeek have the top AI model on June 30? BUY No 96¢ $9 431d
Will the Detroit Pistons win the Eastern Conference? BUY No 99¢ $2 435d
Will Trump's approval rating be between 48.0% and 48.4% on March 28? BUY No 97¢ $12 455d
Ripple above $2.30 on March 21? BUY No $0 458d
Ripple above $2.30 on March 21? BUY No $0 458d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $29.24 · official $29.24 (match) · 35 history records