Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T21:00:09+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
6D 0x6d7e…3248 crypto 486 markets active 1h ago coverage 93d ⚠
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 93d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$1,662 (-2%) realized −$1,804 · open +$142
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -23% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -41% what you keep after slip
Net edge-41%after slip
Net WR25%break-even
Win rate26%127W / 354L
Whale WR37%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$144per market
Trades / day33.8pace
Fees−$95est.
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$885now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 93d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 79% −$3,013
sports 16% −$1,199
world 3% −$832
other 1% −$67
finance 1% +$452
economics 0% −$71
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +25%
net ROI/market (all)-30.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 39 -63.1% -66.6% 21% 18% -67.2%
≤30d 160 -14.4% -22.6% 27% 26% -15.5%
≤90d 443 -27.4% -34.3% 25% 23% -19.9%
all 481 -22.9% -30.3% 26% 25% -15.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover33.8 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -30.3% 25% -15.9%
10% ← realistic here -36.9% 22% -23.9%
15% -43.0% 21% -31.3%
20% -48.6% 18% -38.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 10% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -12% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
6% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -23% · $-wt -7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 37% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -25% → late -20% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
4.9 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$225 vs −$95 · ×2.38 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.85 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

93d coverage
Net worth$885
Realized−$1,804
Unrealized+$142
Win rate (resolved)26%
Wins / losses127 / 354
Whale WR (big bets)37%
Est. fees paid−$95
Open positions5
Markets (closed)481 / 486
History coverage93d ⚠
Avg bet$144
Trades / day33.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 481 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 18? No 20¢ 40¢ $185 $359 +$173 (+94%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $63,000 on June 17? Yes 14¢ 12¢ $229 $200 −$29 (-13%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 18? No 6¢ 7¢ $126 $156 +$30 (+24%)
Will Ethereum dip to $1,700 on June 17? Yes 21¢ 14¢ $145 $100 −$45 (-31%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 18? No 1¢ 2¢ $59 $71 +$13 (+21%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 17? Jun 17 $308 +$33 +11%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 17? Jun 17 $164 −$164 -100%
Will Bitcoin dip to $64,000 on June 17? Jun 17 $177 +$194 +110%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet Jun 17 $56 −$36 -64%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on June 17? Jun 17 $42 +$12 +28%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 June 15-21? Jun 17 $38 −$3 -7%
Will Bitcoin dip to $62,000 June 15-21? Jun 17 $282 +$46 +16%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 17? Jun 17 $398 +$50 +12%
Will Bitcoin dip to $64,000 on June 16? Jun 17 $7 −$7 -100%
Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 on June 16? Jun 17 $298 −$258 -87%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 16? Jun 16 $128 −$128 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 16? Jun 16 $64 −$64 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 16? Jun 16 $261 +$322 +124%
Will Bitcoin dip to $64,000 on June 15? Jun 16 $105 −$105 -100%
Will Bitcoin dip to $63,000 on June 15? Jun 16 $29 −$29 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 15? Jun 16 $181 −$181 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 15? Jun 16 $25 −$25 -100%
Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 on June 15? Jun 16 $101 −$101 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 15? Jun 15 $223 +$20 +9%
Will Bitcoin dip to $62,000 on June 14? Jun 15 $82 −$82 -100%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 15 $153 −$153 -100%
Will Bitcoin dip to $62,000 on June 12? Jun 15 $114 −$114 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 12? Jun 15 $152 −$131 -86%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 14? Jun 15 $184 −$184 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 12? Jun 15 $23 −$23 -100%
Will Bitcoin dip to $62,000 on June 13? Jun 15 $156 −$156 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 14? Jun 14 $38 +$44 +118%
Will Bitcoin dip to $62,000 on June 11? Jun 12 $256 −$112 -44%
Will Bitcoin dip to $61,000 on June 11? Jun 12 $192 −$192 -100%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on June 11? Jun 12 $301 −$301 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 11? Jun 12 $557 −$557 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 11? Jun 12 $363 −$363 -100%
Will Bitcoin dip to $58,000 on June 10? Jun 11 $19 −$19 -100%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 on June 10? Jun 11 $548 −$548 -100%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,600 on June 9? Jun 11 $88 −$88 -100%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,550 on June 9? Jun 11 $44 −$44 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 10? Jun 11 $970 −$970 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 10? Jun 11 $202 −$202 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 10? Jun 11 $144 −$144 -100%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on June 9? Jun 09 $39 −$39 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 9? Jun 09 $236 −$185 -79%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 9? Jun 09 $45 −$45 -100%
Will Bitcoin dip to $61,000 on June 9? Jun 09 $440 +$1,127 +256%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 9? Jun 09 $570 +$655 +115%
Will Bitcoin dip to $61,000 on June 8? Jun 09 $240 −$240 -100%
Will Bitcoin dip to $62,000 on June 8? Jun 09 $697 −$396 -57%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 8? Jun 09 $732 −$502 -69%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 8? Jun 09 $802 −$802 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 8? Jun 09 $222 −$222 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 7? Jun 08 $0 $0 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 18? BUY No 1¢ $17 1h
Will Bitcoin dip to $64,000 on June 17? SELL Yes 60¢ $176 1h
Will Bitcoin dip to $64,000 on June 17? SELL Yes 63¢ $25 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 18? BUY No 6¢ $0 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 18? BUY No 6¢ $6 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 18? BUY No 6¢ $30 1h
Will Bitcoin dip to $64,000 on June 17? SELL Yes 52¢ $171 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 18? BUY No 9¢ $21 4h
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet SELL No 0¢ $20 4h
Will Bitcoin dip to $63,000 on June 17? BUY Yes 8¢ $10 7h
Will Bitcoin dip to $63,000 on June 17? BUY Yes 8¢ $1 7h
Will Bitcoin dip to $64,000 on June 17? BUY Yes 26¢ $11 7h
Will Bitcoin dip to $64,000 on June 17? BUY Yes 26¢ $0 7h
Will Bitcoin dip to $64,000 on June 17? BUY Yes 26¢ $166 7h
Will Bitcoin dip to $63,000 on June 17? BUY Yes 11¢ $27 7h
Will Ethereum dip to $1,700 on June 17? BUY Yes 21¢ $153 7h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 18? BUY No 24¢ $174 7h
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on June 17? SELL No 3¢ $54 7h
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 June 15-21? SELL Yes 7¢ $35 7h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 18? BUY No 6¢ $63 8h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 18? BUY No 6¢ $28 8h
Will Bitcoin dip to $62,000 June 15-21? SELL Yes 23¢ $328 9h
Will Bitcoin dip to $63,000 on June 17? BUY Yes 14¢ $102 9h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 17? BUY No 14¢ $3 9h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 17? BUY No 14¢ $3 9h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 17? BUY No 14¢ $3 9h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 17? BUY No 14¢ $3 9h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 17? BUY No 14¢ $3 9h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 17? BUY No 14¢ $3 9h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 17? BUY No 14¢ $3 9h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $885.48 · official $885.48 (match) · 3500 history records