Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T18:29:53+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.5
score
6D 0x6d7e…84e7 other 29 markets active 1h ago coverage 23d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$62 (+18%) realized −$2 · open +$64
Gross ROI / mkt +14% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +3% what you keep after slip
Net edge+3%after slip
Net WR48%break-even
Win rate48%13W / 14L
Drawdown50%max
Avg bet$12per market
Trades / day2.3pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit31%portable
Net worth$64now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$2
7 days+$65
14 days+$51
30 days+$56
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 72% +$112
sports 16% +$31
world 10% −$19
crypto 2% −$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +48%
net ROI/market (all)+2.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 13 +53.1% +38.6% 62% 62% +23.8%
≤30d 27 +13.7% +2.9% 48% 48% +10.2%
≤90d 27 +13.7% +2.9% 48% 48% +10.2%
all 27 +13.7% +2.9% 48% 48% +10.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +2.9% 48% +10.2%
10% -7.0% 48% -0.4%
15% -15.9% 41% -10.0%
20% -24.2% 33% -18.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 37% · top 2 49% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +20% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +14% · $-wt +20% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -18% → late +43% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$12 vs −$7 · ×1.72 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.6 per $1 lost it wins $1.6
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

23d coverage
Net worth$64
Realized−$2
Unrealized+$64
Win rate (resolved)48%
Wins / losses13 / 14
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions2
Markets (closed)27 / 29
History coverage23d
Avg bet$12
Trades / day2.3
Drawdown50%
Kalshi-fit31%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 27 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Yes 80¢ $0 $59 +$59 (+0%)
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 1 Austria? Yes 10¢ $0 $4 +$4 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 7 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Exact Score: Spain 3 - 0 Saudi Arabia? Jun 21 $10 −$8 -74%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 21 $31 +$10 +33%
Exact Score: Netherlands 3 - 1 Sweden? Jun 20 $4 −$1 -18%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $30 +$18 +59%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $30 −$30 -99%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 17 $31 +$55 +180%
Exact Score: England 2 - 1 Croatia? Jun 17 $5 +$1 +27%
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -98%
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 1 DR Congo? Jun 17 $5 −$1 -26%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $10 +$5 +46%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 17 $3 +$8 +276%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $10 +$9 +86%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 15 $1 +$3 +302%
Exact Score: Spain 1 - 0 Cabo Verde? Jun 15 $3 −$3 -84%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -99%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $3 −$3 -98%
Exact Score: Germany 3 - 0 Curaçao? Jun 14 $3 −$3 -94%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $3 −$3 -98%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 14 $6 +$8 +134%
Exact Score: Qatar 0 - 3 Switzerland? Jun 13 $3 −$3 -100%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $3 +$3 +114%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $3 −$3 -99%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $5 +$2 +43%
Iran closes its airspace by June 8? Jun 07 $35 −$19 -55%
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 30 $14 +$10 +73%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Arsenal FC end in a draw? May 30 $15 +$17 +108%
Spread: Paris Saint-Germain FC (-1.5) May 30 $15 −$2 -15%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 1 Austria? BUY Yes 12¢ $5 1h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 68¢ $50 1h
Exact Score: Spain 3 - 0 Saudi Arabia? SELL Yes $3 26h
Exact Score: Spain 3 - 0 Saudi Arabia? BUY Yes 18¢ $10 26h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? SELL Yes 56¢ $41 26h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 41¢ $31 27h
Exact Score: Netherlands 3 - 1 Sweden? SELL Yes 13¢ $3 2d
Exact Score: Netherlands 3 - 1 Sweden? BUY Yes 15¢ $4 2d
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 100¢ $48 2d
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 62¢ $30 2d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 52¢ $30 4d
Exact Score: Any Other Score? SELL Yes 97¢ $86 4d
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 34¢ $15 4d
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 34¢ $15 4d
Exact Score: England 2 - 1 Croatia? SELL Yes 20¢ $7 4d
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? BUY Yes 31¢ $5 4d
Exact Score: England 2 - 1 Croatia? BUY Yes 15¢ $5 4d
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 1 DR Congo? SELL Yes $4 4d
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 1 DR Congo? BUY Yes $5 5d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 68¢ $10 5d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 100¢ $19 5d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 53¢ $10 5d
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 26¢ $3 6d
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? SELL Yes 99¢ $4 6d
Exact Score: Spain 1 - 0 Cabo Verde? SELL Yes $0 7d
Exact Score: Spain 1 - 0 Cabo Verde? BUY Yes 41¢ $3 7d
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $1 7d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 67¢ $10 7d
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 38¢ $3 7d
Exact Score: Germany 3 - 0 Curaçao? SELL Yes $0 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $63.57 · official $63.57 (match) · 57 history records