Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T17:20:55+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
6D 0x6d80…1f43 world 43 markets active 0h ago coverage 478d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$3 (+0%) realized +$3 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -5% what you keep after slip
Net edge-5%after slip
Net WR2%break-even
Win rate44%19W / 24L
Drawdown30%max
Avg bet$23per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit74%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days+$1
14 days+$1
30 days−$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 49% $0
other 19% +$3
politics 9% +$1
crypto 9% +$1
sports 6% $0
finance 4% $0
economics 2% $0
tech 2% $0
culture 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-4.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +1.2% -8.4% 50% 0% -7.9%
≤30d 15 -0.3% -9.8% 40% 0% -9.5%
≤90d 15 -0.3% -9.8% 40% 0% -9.5%
all 43 +5.3% -4.7% 44% 2% -9.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -4.7% 2% -9.2%
10% -13.9% 2% -17.9%
15% -22.2% 2% -25.8%
20% -29.8% 2% -33.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 27% · top 2 46% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
95% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +5% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late +10% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×2.25 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.68 per $1 lost it wins $2.68
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

478d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$3
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses19 / 24
Open positions0
Markets (closed)43 / 43
History coverage478d
Avg bet$23
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown30%
Kalshi-fit74%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 43 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 23 $40 +$1 +2%
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 23 $13 $0 -0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 08 $77 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 06 $40 $0 -0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 06 $16 $0 -3%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 05 $38 −$1 -2%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 05 $37 $0 +0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Jun 04 $42 $0 -0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? May 31 $42 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 30 $41 $0 +1%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 30 $37 $0 +1%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 30 $58 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 28 $37 $0 -1%
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? May 26 $2 $0 -3%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 26 $41 $0 -0%
Will Eva Copa win the 2025 Bolivia presidential election? Jun 24 $17 $0 +0%
Will Zootopia 2 be the top grossing movie of 2025? Jun 13 $4 $0 +0%
Will HNP win the most seats in the Chamber of Deputies following the 2 Jun 12 $33 $0 -0%
Will Cameron Young win The 2025 U.S. Open? Jun 12 $1 +$2 +222%
Will Powell say "Good Afternoon" during June Press Conference? Jun 11 $18 $0 +0%
Will Raphinha win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Jun 11 $18 $0 -0%
Will 'Wicked: For Good' have the best domestic opening weekend in 2025 Jun 10 $18 $0 -0%
Will Daniel Baluta be the next Mayor of Bucharest? Jun 10 $2 $0 +0%
Will Mia Farrow win the Tony for Best Leading Actress in a Play 2025? Jun 06 $19 $0 -0%
Will Lee Jae-myung win less than 35% of the vote in the South Korea el Jun 05 $2 $0 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $107K and $109K on June 3? Jun 05 $17 $0 +3%
Will the candidate from the Democratic Party (DPK) win the South Korea Jun 03 $17 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60k in May? Jun 02 $19 $0 +1%
Will Ethereum reach $4000 in May? May 12 $19 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be less than $1900 on May 16? May 11 $19 $0 +0%
Will Ferrari be the 2025 Constructors Champion? May 11 $19 $0 +0%
Will Pacers vs. Warriors be the 2025 NBA Finals matchup? May 10 $19 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1200 in May? May 10 $19 $0 +0%
Will Knicks vs. Timberwolves be the 2025 NBA Finals matchup? May 09 $18 $0 -0%
Will Elon tweet 275–299 times May 2–9? May 09 $15 +$1 +8%
Will Nikita Kucherov win the Hart Trophy? May 09 $3 $0 -7%
Will DeepSeek have the top AI model on May 31? May 08 $18 $0 -0%
Will Matteo Zuppi be the next pope? May 08 $18 $0 +0%
Will Elon tweet 200–224 times May 2–9? May 08 $18 $0 -0%
Will Trump deport 1,250,000-1,500,000 people? May 07 $3 $0 +0%
Will the Winnipeg Jets win the 2025 Stanley Cup? May 07 $17 $0 +0%
Will another candidate win the 2024 Romanian Presidential election? May 06 $19 +$1 +4%
Houston Christian vs. Texas A&M Commerce Mar 02 $19 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 90¢ $41 3m
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 88¢ $40 1h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 16¢ $4 16h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 16¢ $9 16h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 16¢ $13 18h
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $41 15d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $41 15d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $37 16d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $36 17d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL Yes 5¢ $1 17d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL Yes 5¢ $0 17d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL Yes 5¢ $2 17d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY Yes 5¢ $3 17d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 19¢ $2 17d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 19¢ $14 17d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 19¢ $16 17d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 50¢ $7 17d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 50¢ $30 17d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 51¢ $19 18d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 51¢ $19 18d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $7 18d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $31 18d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $37 18d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $1 19d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $21 19d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $19 19d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $42 19d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 53¢ $11 23d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 53¢ $31 23d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 53¢ $42 23d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 118 history records